中國宣佈5月起實行存款保險制度
China will launch a long-awaited deposit insurance system next month, the central bank said on Tuesday, a crucial step towards deregulating domestic interest rates and promoting market-based capital allocation.
Zhou Xiaochuan, the central bank governor, told reporters last month that China could remove the cap on bank deposit rates — the last remaining domestic interest rate subject to administrative regulation — by the end of this year.
中國央行行長周小川上月對記者表示，中國可能在今年底之前取消銀行存款利率上限，存款利率是中國最後一種受到行政監管的利率。Deposit insurance lays the foundation for freeing up rates by ensuring that savers are protected even if competition for deposits leads to excessive risk-taking and bank failure. The People’s Bank of China said deposits up to Rmb500,000 ($80,600) would be insured.
存款保險將確保即便攬儲競爭導致過度冒險和銀行倒閉，儲戶也會得到保護，從而爲利率自由化奠定基礎。中國央行表示，最高償付限額爲50萬元人民幣（約合8.06萬美元）。
“Deposit insurance is a precondition for interest-rate liberalisation. The implementation of the system means rate liberalisation is speeding up,” said Tao Wang, greater China economist at UBS in Hong Kong.
“存款保險是利率市場化的前提。該制度的執行意味着利率市場化開始加速，”瑞銀(UBS)駐香港的大中華區經濟學家汪濤表示。Economists say lifting the cap on bank deposit rates will lead to higher interest rates as banks compete for funds. That should improve capital allocation as lenders seek out more productive borrowers able to afford higher rates, including small, privately owned businesses that have long struggled to obtain bank loans.
經濟學家們表示，放開銀行存款利率上限將導致利率升高，因爲各銀行將爲獲得資金展開競爭。這應會改善資本配置狀況，因爲銀行會尋找能夠承受更高利率的更具成效的借款人，包括那些長期以來很難獲取銀行貸款的小型民企。The PBoC was widely expected to launch deposit insurance last year but bankers say behind the scenes wrangling led to delays. Larger banks resisted a structure that would have forced them to pay a disproportionate share of insurance premiums, in effect subsidising smaller lenders that are most likely to fail.
外界曾普遍預期中國央行會在去年推出存款保險制度，但銀行家們表示，幕後角力導致了延遲。對於一種將迫使它們支付份額超出比例的保費、實際上對最可能倒閉的中小銀行進行補貼的保險安排，大銀行進行了抵制。The details of the system largely match those of a draft plan released in late November last year. Analysts said at the time that the Rmb500,000 limit would fully cover about 98 per cent of Chinese depositors, though the large share of deposit funds held by wealthy savers means that would still leave a significant chunk of the banking system’s Rmb126tn in deposits uninsured.
存款保險制度的細節基本上與去年11月下旬公佈的草案相吻合。分析師們當時表示，償付上限定爲50萬元人民幣，將爲約98%的中國儲戶提供全額保護，不過，富裕儲戶持有的高比例存款意味着，銀行體系126萬億元人民幣存款中仍將有相當大一部分得不到保護。Citing the experience of other countries, the International Monetary Fund has previously said that the rollout of deposit insurance could lead to deposit outflows from smaller banks, as it highlights bank failure as a realistic possibility and explicitly defines some deposits as unprotected.
國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)此前曾援引其他國家的經驗表示，存款保險制度的推出可能導致存款流出中小銀行，因爲它凸顯了銀行倒閉的現實可能性，並明確地將部分存款界定爲不受保護。Almost all Chinese banks are state-owned, and domestic savers have traditionally viewed all bank deposits as carrying an implicit government guarantee.
中國幾乎所有銀行都是國有銀行，因而國內儲戶傳統上認爲所有銀行存款都得到政府的隱性擔保。In reality, even with deposit insurance in place, analysts remain sceptical that China’s government — with its focus on financial and social stability — would allow a bank failure. A series of technical defaults on risky high-yield debt has been permitted in recent years, but in each case the government ended up bailing out retail investors.
在現實中，即便在存款保險制度實施後，分析師們仍懷疑專注於維護金融與社會穩定的中國政府是否會允許銀行倒閉。近年來，中國政府已允許一連串高風險、高收益債券發生技術性違約，但每一次，政府最終都安排散戶投資者得到了全額償付。The PBoC added that it could adjust the insurance limit if economic conditions change. The central bank will manage the deposit insurance fund, which can invest in government bonds, central bank bills, and other high-rated bonds.
中國央行補充稱，如果經濟條件發生變化，可能對最高償付限額進行調整。中國央行將管理存款保險基金，該基金可以投資政府債券、央行票據和其他高評級債券。Additional reporting by Ma Nan in Shanghai
Ma Nan上海補充報道
