大環境無時無刻不在變 理解世界貿易新常態

Where has all the trade gone? Looking at the figures, a casual observer might conclude that globalisation is in crisis. Total trade in goods and services, having initially bounced back from the global financial crisis, has slowed sharply. Usually growing twice as fast as the world economy, it is underperforming gross domestic product for the first time in four decades.

貿易都去哪兒了？從數據看，外行人可能會得出結論——全球化正處於危機中。全球金融危機過後，世界商品及服務貿易最初強勁反彈，但之後又急劇放緩。全球貿易增速通常是全球經濟增速的兩倍，現在卻低於國內生產總值(GDP)增速，這是40年來首次出現的局面。

In reality, the situation is less dire. The period since the financial crisis is certainly not a re-run of the retreat from free trade in the Great Depression. Despite some governments indulging in “murky protectionism” – using regulations to disadvantage Foreign competitors – there has been no wholesale resort to trade barriers.

現實情況倒沒有那麼可怕。金融危機爆發後，大蕭條時期自由貿易倒退的現象並沒重演。儘管一些政府沉迷於“隱祕的保護主義”，利用法規使外國競爭者處於不利境地，但沒有一個國家大規模採用貿易壁壘。

Last week, economists from the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank came up with a more plausible explanation: the global system is going through a structural change. Activity that previously involved cross-border trade has been brought within national economies, notably China. A slowing of measured trade growth is not therefore a cause for alarm. It does, however, underline that policy makers should be alert to assess and shape the changing future of globalisation.

上週，國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)和世界銀行(World Bank)的經濟學家拿出了一個更可信的解釋：全球體系正經歷結構性變化。此前涉及跨境貿易的經濟活動已開始轉向各國經濟體內部，尤其是中國。因此，統計顯示的貿易增長放緩不應引起震驚，但它突顯了政策制定者應保持警覺，隨時評估和影響全球化不斷變化的未來。

During the growth of “Factory Asia” in the 1990s and 2000s, east Asian economies spontaneously arranged themselves into a production line for manufactured goods, with China often the final assembly stage. Many goods marked “Made in China” had most of their value added in other countries, including their markets of final destination such as Japan and the US.

在20世紀90年代和21世紀頭10年的“亞洲工廠”增長期內，東亞經濟體自發地將自己安排成一條製成品的生產線，往往由中國負責總裝。許多標有“中國製造”的商品，其絕大部分附加值都是在其他國家實現的，包括日本和美國等最終市場。

That pattern is now changing. According to the calculations of the IMF and World Bank, “Made in China” more closely means what it says. In a trend starting well before the global financial crisis, the share of imported inputs in Chinese exports has fallen from more than 50 per cent in 2000 to less than 35 per cent today.

然而這種模式正在改變。根據IMF和世行的計算，“中國製造”如今更加名副其實。早在全球金融危機爆發前，進口原材料在中國出口產品中所佔比例已呈下降趨勢，從2000年的50%以上降至今天的不足35%。

Accordingly, the responsiveness of trade to GDP growth has undergone a long-term reduction, which may prove permanent. Other factors may push it further in the same direction. While the world is not exactly running out of low-cost workers, the obvious candidates to take the lead in labour-intensive manufacturing – south Asia and India – are yet to do so. And emerging technologies such as 3D printing will reduce the dependence of manufacturing on low-cost labour and bring production closer to the final consumer.

相應地，貿易對GDP增長的反應靈敏程度經歷了一個長期下降過程，這有可能是永久性的。該趨勢受到了其他因素的進一步推動。雖然全球並未真的缺少低成本勞動力，但有望接過勞動密集型製造業接力棒的兩大明顯候選者——東南亞和印度——尚未接棒。3D打印等新興技術也將降低製造業對低成本勞動力的依賴，讓產品生產可以從地理上更靠近最終消費者。

The implications for policy makers of these changes are manifold. The traditional focus of trade policy, formal pacts on tariffs and subsidies, is too narrow. Instead, governments should look at a range of issues that affect their economies’ ability to participate in globalisation. Foreign direct investment, for example, is becoming more important than trade. Whatever the merits may be of individual investment treaties, the principle of protecting investors’ rights under domestic law has become ever more important.

這些變化對政策制定者的影響是多方面的。貿易政策的傳統焦點——關稅和補貼的正式協定——如今已過於狹隘。政府應轉而關注影響其經濟參與全球化能力的一系列問題。例如，外國直接投資正變得比貿易更重要。無論個別投資條約有何優點，根據國內法律保護投資者權益的原則正變得日益重要。

Globalisation and trade are often regarded as the same thing. They are not. Most tariffs have already dropped rapidly and are rarely the determining factor in locating production. Technology and output will disperse globally according to countries’ capacity to adopt them, not their success in wringing marginal treaty concessions out of trading partners.

全球化和貿易往往被視爲一回事，其實不是。大多數關稅已快速下調，不再是確定生產地址的決定性因素。技術和製造將根據各國的接納能力（而不是它們在談判條約時討價還價、從貿易伙伴那裏得到雞毛蒜皮的讓步的本事）在全球分佈。

The recent slow growth in trade is not a disaster. It reflects the fact that, for all the drawbacks of its model, China has managed to go beyond the final-assembly stage to head up the value chain. Other economies can too. The most important barriers to global commerce are not between economies: they are within them.

近年貿易增長的放緩不是一場災難。它反映了這樣一個事實：中國經濟模式儘管存在種種弊端，但它成功超越了總裝工序的角色，開始向價值鏈上方移動。其他經濟體也能做到這一點。全球貿易最重要的障礙並不存在於經濟體之間，而是在各經濟體的內部。