中國正在設法馴服煤炭野獸

This week’s landmark agreement between the U.S. and China on limiting emissions of carbon dioxide marks a significant diplomatic milestone in the struggle against global climate change. The fact that the two largest sources of CO2 have finally agreed to do something about it should, in theory, give a boost to next year’s United Nations climate summit. Whether the actual terms of the deal—which calls for the U.S. to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 26% to 28%, compared to 2005 levels, by 2025, and for China to cap its emissions by 2030—have a realistic shot at being met is another question.

上週，中美就限制二氧化碳排放達成重大協議，這在應對全球氣候變化方面是一個里程碑式的外交事件。理論上，世界上最大的兩個二氧化碳排放國最終同意就此採取行動將爲明年的聯合國氣候變化峯會帶來積極影響。按照協議，到2025年，美國的溫室氣體排放量將比2005年下降26-28%；到2030年，中國將實現溫室氣體排放零增長。不過，問題在於，這些目標能否真的實現。

On the U.S. side, Republicans emboldened by the midterm elections will work to block any attempt to fulfill America’s side of the bargain, which Republican Sen. Jim Inhofe, of Oklahoma, soon to be chairman of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, called “a non-binding charade.”

美國方面，中期選舉增強了共和黨的實力。該黨成員將阻止美國政府試圖履行協議中的自方責任。即將擔任參議院環境和公共工程委員會（Senate Environment and Public Works Committee）主席的俄克拉荷馬州共和黨參議員吉姆o英霍夫（Jim Inhofe）將中美之間的這份協議稱爲“毫無約束力。”

China’s challenge in meeting the terms of the bilateral agreement are not political but structural: simply put, to reduce emissions growth, China must reduce the size of its coal industry, which supplies some three-quarters of China’s electricity. That is no easy task.

就履行這份雙邊協議而言，中國面臨的並非是政治難題，而是結構性挑戰：簡而言之，要降低溫室氣體排放增速，中國就必須壓縮煤炭行業規模。而煤電約佔中國目前發電量的四分之三，這絕不是一項輕而易舉的工作。

But Beijing must take action, because the smog-choked nation can hardly stick with the status quo. The climate deal is part of a larger strategy to address China’s pollution crisis.

但中國政府必須採取行動，因爲這個霧霾籠罩下的國家無法再安於現狀。而這份氣候協議正是中國應對污染危機宏圖大略的一部分。

The costs of China’s heavy reliance on coal for power generation were highlighted again days before the deal with President Obama was announced, when a pair of researchers at the prestigious Tsinghua University released a study showing that around 670,000 people die prematurely every year as a result of air pollution from coal. Every ton of coal produced in China adds more than 286 yuan ($46) in environmental damage and health costs, reported Teng Fei, an associate professor at Tsinghua University. China produced nearly 4 billion tons of coal in 2013, according to the World Coal Association.

就在中美宣佈簽署協議前幾天，知名學府清華大學兩名研究人員所發佈的一項報告顯示，燃煤引發的空氣污染每年都會造成約67萬人過早死亡，這再次突出了中國嚴重依賴煤電所付出的代價。清華大學副教授騰飛指出，中國每生產一噸煤，就會產生286元人民幣的環境和健康成本。而據世界煤炭協會（World Coal Association）的數據顯示，2013年中國生產了近40億噸煤炭。

The Tsinghua study follows a 2011 report by the World Health Organization, published in The Lancet, that estimated that 1.2 million people in China died in 2010 from diseases related to all forms of air pollution. China also has by far the deadliest mining industry in the world: One thousand forty-nine coal miners died in accidents in 2013, down 23% from the year before but still far more than any other country.

上述研究成果出爐前，世界衛生組織（World Health Organization）曾於2011年在醫學雜誌《柳葉刀》（The Lancet）上發表報告稱，2010年有120萬中國人死於各種空氣污染引發的疾病。同時，中國還是世界上死於礦難人數最多的國家：2013年有1049名生產人員死於煤礦事故，雖比上年下降了23%，但仍遠高於世界其他國家。

Mounting evidence of coal’s environmental damage comes as China’s slowing economy has reduced demand for electricity, creating an oversupply crisis for an industry that has known nothing but steady growth for the last three decades. China has reached “a very critical moment in the management of its coal resources, and in the history of the coal industry,” says Cao Xia, a professor of environmental law at Shanxi University of Finance and Economics, in China’s coal heartland, Shanxi Province.

就在經濟增速放緩造成中國電力需求下降之際，體現煤炭污染環境的證據越來越多，這給30年來一直以穩定增長著稱的煤炭行業帶來了供給過剩危機。在中國產煤大省山西，山西財經大學環境法教授曹霞認爲：中國在煤炭資源管理方面以及在煤炭行業發展史上已經到了“一個非常關鍵的時刻。”

The direct, domestic impacts of the nation’s massive coal industry, which produces and consumes about as much coal as the rest of the world combined, are added to the indirect, worldwide costs in terms of greenhouse gas emissions. No international program to combat climate change can succeed unless China slashes its burning of coal.

中國煤炭行業規模龐大，煤炭產銷量幾乎和全球其他地區的總和相當。除了在國內造成的直接影響，這個行業產生的溫室氣體排放還給整個世界帶來了間接成本。除非中國削減煤炭消費量，否則任何應對氣候變化的國際性方案都無法獲得成功。

“The actions China takes in the next decade will be critical for the future of China and the world,” wrote Fergus Green and Nicholas Stern in a research paper for the Center for Climate Change Economics and Policy, in London. “Whether China moves onto an innovative, sustainable, and low-carbon growth path this decade will more or less determine both China’s longer-term economic prospects … and the world’s prospects of cutting greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions sufficiently to manage the grave risks of climate change.”

費格斯o格林（Fergus Green）和尼古拉斯o斯特恩（Nicholas Stern）在向倫敦氣候變化經濟和政策中心（Center for Climate Change Economics and Policy）提交的研究報告中寫道：“中國在今後10年採取的行動對中國和全球的未來都很關鍵。在這10年裏，中國能否實現創新和可持續的低碳增長將或多或少地決定中國的長期經濟前景……也將決定全世界的溫室氣體減排幅度是否足以應對氣候變化帶來的重大風險。”

Facing mounting public outrage over air and water pollution, the central government’s actions to limit coal use have multiplied in recent months. The Airborne Pollution Action Plan, unveiled by the central government in September 2013, calls for a reduction of air pollution in the northern region surrounding Beijing by 25%, and 20% in the Yangtze River Delta.

隨着公衆對空氣和水污染不滿的漸增，近幾個月，中國中央政府限制使用煤炭的力度倍增。2013年9月，中央政府發佈了《大氣污染防治行動計劃》，目標是讓京津冀地區細顆粒物濃度下降25%，長三角地區下降20%。

Already, strict limitations on coal use in major urban areas, including Beijing and Shanghai, are in place. Planning to cap total coal production at 4.1 billion tons as of 2015, the government said in October it will no longer approve new coal mining projects below 300,000 metric tons (330,000 short tons), effectively banning the small, unregulated mines that have contributed to the coal glut. Hundreds of small mines have already closed, and the government has also taken steps to restrict imports of “dirty” coal—i.e., coal with high levels of ash and sulfur. (Although China’s coal market is oversupplied, imports continue because domestic transport issues mean it’s often cheaper to purchase coal shipped from Indonesia or Australia than buy domestic coal from the northern provinces of Shanxi and Inner Mongolia.)

包括北京和上海在內的主要城市已經對使用煤炭做出了嚴格限制。按照十二五規劃，2015年中國煤炭產能將達到41億噸。今年10月份，中國政府表示，將不再覈准新建30萬噸（約合33萬淨噸）以下的煤礦，這實際上封殺了那些造成煤炭供給過剩的小型不規範煤礦。數百個小煤礦已經關閉，中國政府同時採取措施限制進口“髒”煤，即含硫量和灰分高的煤炭（儘管中國煤炭市場已經供過於求，但受國內運輸條件限制，購買印尼或澳大利亞煤炭要比購買山西和內蒙等國內北部省份的煤炭便宜，所以中國一直在進口煤炭）。

At the same time, though, China is embarking on a grandiose plan not to shut down the coal industry but to move it inland, away from the big cities of the coast and from the prying eyes of international environmental groups. As I reported for Fortune from Shanxi Province in April, coal producers, under the direction of the central and provincial governments, are building huge “coal bases” in the northwest provinces that will include large mines, power plants connected to coastal cities via gigantic high-voltage transmission lines, huge plants to convert coal to liquid fuel, and related facilities such as concrete plants and chemical plants.

與此同時，中國正在實施一項宏偉計劃，其內容不是整體關閉煤炭行業，而是將其遷移到內陸，遠離沿海地區大城市以及國際環保團體的挑剔目光。今年4月份我曾從山西向《財富》雜誌發回過報道，在中央和省政府的指導下，煤炭企業正在西北省份建立大型煤炭基地。這些基地將包括大型煤礦、通過特高壓輸電線路和沿海城市相連的發電廠、大型煤制油工廠以及混凝土廠和化工廠等配套設施。

This huge migration and consolidation may well clean up the skies in cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen, thus reducing rates of respiratory disease and deaths linked to air pollution. It could also rationalize the coal industry, better matching supply to demand, and reduce China’s imports of foreign oil. What it won’t do is reduce the country’s overall carbon emissions; in fact, it could drastically increase them, as more coal gets burned and more carbon-intensive processes – particularly coal-to-liquids conversion – are expanded.

這項重大的遷移及整合計劃可能會讓北京、上海和深圳等城市的天空藍起來，從而降低空氣污染引發的呼吸道疾病發病率和死亡人數。這項措施還有可能理順煤炭行業格局，讓供需更加平衡，並減少中國的石油進口。但它無法降低中國的整體碳排放水平。實際上，此舉可能大幅度提高中國的碳排放量，原因是燃煤數量的增多以及碳密集型生產工藝將得到更普遍的使用，特別是煤制油。

“We are very concerned” about the coal-base plan, says Ailun Yang, a senior associate with the World Resources Institute who focuses on energy issues in China. “Enforcing tougher air pollution standards along the coast will lead to shutting down coal plants, and create demand for a lot more gas. The western parts of China want to supply the gas by turning coal into gas. That process will be very, very bad for the world.”

世界資源研究所（World Resources Institute）重點關注中國能源問題的高級研究員楊艾倫（音譯）說：“我們非常擔心。在沿海地區執行更嚴格的空氣污染標準意味着關閉燃煤發電廠，這將爲天然氣帶來大量需求。中國西部地區想將煤轉換成天然氣並對外供應。這對全世界來說是一項非常不好的工藝。”

Headline writers often refer to China’s “addiction” to coal. The relationship might be better thought of as a bad marriage, where neither partner can afford to leave. China needs the coal industry to fuel its demand for energy, which will surely continue to rise as the economy grows (even at rates of 7% to 8% a year, rather than the red-hot 10% to 12% annually of the last decade) and the middle class expands. The coal industry, of course, requires rising demand to continue to grow, to generate returns on its huge capital investments of the last decade, and to provide jobs for the hundreds of thousands of people who work in coal mines, coal plants, and related industries. In Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, and Xinjiang, entire cities depend on coal production and processing.

新聞頭條記者經常用“依賴上癮”來形容中國與煤炭的關係。將此想象爲一場失敗的婚姻也許更爲合適——在這裏，雙方誰也離不開誰。中國需要煤炭行業來滿足國內能源需求。隨着經濟的增長（就算年增長率爲7-8%，而不是過去10年中白熱化的10-12%）和中產階層的擴大，中國的能源需求必將繼續上升。當然，煤炭行業也要依靠需求的不斷擴大來保持增長，從而爲10年來投入的大量資金提供回報，並通過煤礦、燃煤發電廠以及相關行業創造出數以十萬計的就業機會。在山西、內蒙古和新疆，都存在着整座城市都依賴於煤炭開採和加工的現象。

Coal in China has created an economy within an economy, and reducing the size of the coal industry would result in massive unemployment across large swaths of the country. Notwithstanding China’s huge push on renewable energy and natural gas, it’s hard to see how this co-dependency will be broken any time soon.

煤炭行業已經在中國經濟體系中自成一體。壓縮煤炭行業的規模將造成大量人員失業。儘管中國正在大力推廣可再生能源和天然氣，但很難想象中國經濟和煤炭的這種相互依存關係很快就會被打破。

That’s not to say there’s no hope. China’s overall energy intensity (the amount of energy required to produce a given unit of GDP) has gone down in recent years, as the export-led economy shifts toward higher-tech products and services. Most areas of the country are on track to meet or exceed energy-conservation targets for 2015, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (as reported by Reuters), and the rate of growth in energy use is expected to fall by half this year compared to 2013. According to China-based researchers for Greenpeace, the total amount of coal burned in the first three-quarters of 2014 was 1% to 2% lower than the same period a year earlier.

但這並不是說沒有希望。近幾年，隨着中國的出口型經濟向科技含量較高的產品和服務轉移，中國的整體能源密集度（創造單位GDP所需的能源）已經下降。據路透社（Reuters）報道，國家發改委表示，中國大多數地區都將達到或者超額完成2015年節能目標；預計今年中國的能源消費增速將比2013年下降一半。綠色和平組織（Greenpeace）駐中國研究人員指出，2014年前三個季度，中國的燃煤總量比上年同期減少了1-2%。

“The data suggests the world’s largest economy is finally starting to radically slow down its emission growth,” wrote the Greenpeace analysts.

綠色和平組織的分析師們寫道：“相關數據表明，作爲全球最大的經濟體，中國終於開始從根本上降低溫室氣體排放增速。”

Still, the coal beast on the mainland continues to grow. In October, just as the results of the Tsinghua University study of coal fatalities was being released, the national news agency Xinhua reported that a huge coal field, containing 12.8 billion tons, had been discovered in western Xinjiang. Mining has already begun.

不過，難以駕馭的中國煤炭行業仍在增長。今年10月份，就在清華大學公佈上述研究結果的同時，新華社報道稱新疆西部發現了儲量128億噸的大型煤田，而且已經開始採煤。