精確計算中國爲煤炭付出的代價

The Natural Resources Defense Council has presented research that attempts to take on the Herculean task of quantifying the environmental, social and economic toll of China’s reliance on coal.

自然資源保護協會(Natural Resources Defense Council)所展示的研究試圖開展一項艱難任務：對中國的煤炭依賴造成的環境、社會和經濟損害進行量化。

The report, released Tuesday by the New York-based environmental organization, is part of its China Coal Consumption Cap Project, begun last October in conjunction with Chinese government research organizations, universities and industry groups to help China begin diminishing its use of coal by 2020. Researchers from Tsinghua and Peking universities, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and other government-affiliated bodies worked together to develop concrete figures that, according to the study, show how a broad range of ecological problems and human suffering resulting from coal consumption can be discussed in terms of cold, hard cash.

週二由這個設在紐約的環境組織所發佈的報告，是中國煤炭消耗總量控制工程(China Coal Consumption Cap Project)的部分內容。該項目開始於去年10月，旨在幫中國在2020年前減少煤炭使用量，中國的政府研究機構、大學和工業組織也參與了進來。來自清華大學、北京大學、中國社會科學院及其他政府相關機構的研究人員通過共同合作得出了切實的數據，表明煤炭消耗所引起大量生態問題和對人的傷害，也是可以通過冰冷而嚴酷的金錢角度進行探討的。

Yang Fuqiang, senior adviser on energy, environment and climate change at the council, said that the report was a response to China’s lack of clear quantitative data on the external costs of coal use. ‘‘In order to understand the true impact of coal, we absolutely must talk about all of the hidden costs to society behind it as an industry.’’

自然資源保護協會能源、環境與氣候變化高級顧問楊富強表示，在煤炭使用的外部成本方面，中國缺乏量化數據，這篇報告對此做了迴應。“爲了理解煤炭的真正影響，我們絕對應該考慮煤炭作爲一個行業，讓社會付出的潛在代價。”

The most severe of the costs, air pollution, is readily apparent to the 70 percent of the country’s population found by the study to be living in regions where levels exceed World Health Organization recommendations. Coal and coal-related industrial processes account for 50 percent to 60 percent of the airborne pollutants known as PM 2.5 — or particles 2.5 micrometers or smaller — that make their way deep into the lungs, increasing the likelihood of lung cancer, stroke and other diseases. According to the report, approximately 670,000 people died because of PM 2.5 pollution generated by coal use in 2012.

這些代價中最嚴重的是空氣污染，這對於中國70%的人口而言尤其明顯。研究發現，在這些人生活的地區，污染水平超過了世界衛生組織(World Health Organization)的推薦標準。對於通過空氣傳播的污染物PM2.5，50%至60%是來自煤炭及煤炭相關產業。PM2.5是直徑小於等於2.5微米的顆粒物，它們能夠深入肺部，增加人們罹患肺癌、中風和其他疾病的危險。報告稱，2012年，大約有67萬人死於煤炭使用所引起的PM2.5污染。

There appears to be little chance that China will ever be completely weaned off coal, despite a decrease in coal consumption for the first time in nearly a century over the first three quarters of this year. There have also been recent high-profile promises to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, including one by Vice Premier Zhang Gaoli at the United Nations climate change summit meeting in September. Yet coal, naturally abundant in the country, accounts for 65 percent of China’s primary energy consumption, the report said. China is the world’s largest consumer of the resource.

中國似乎不太可能完全放棄煤炭，雖然今年前三個季度，煤炭消耗量在將近一個世紀的時間裏首次出現下跌。中國最近也曾高調承諾要減少二氧化碳的排放；9月，中國國務院副總理張高麗就曾在聯合國(United Nations)的氣候變化峯會上做出相關承諾。但該報告稱，中國的煤炭資源豐富，煤在該國主要能源消耗中佔65%。中國是世界上最大的煤炭消費國。

The price of coal in China is now just over 500 renminbi, or a little more than $80, per ton, a seemingly inexpensive energy source. The study, which used data from 2012, when coal cost more than $100, asserts that for every ton, an additional $43 in social costs was imposed on the country. Pricing mechanisms do not reflect this external expenditure, the report said, because coal producers are required to pay an environmental tax of only $5 to $8 per ton. The study also found that it is consumers like factories and power plants rather than mining companies that are responsible for the majority of this social toll, with 64 percent of the total burden coming from the pollutants released during combustion as coal is transformed into electricity for industrial and residential use.

中國目前的煤價爲每噸500元人民幣多一點（約合80美元），表面看來是一種廉價的能源。該報告使用了2012年的數據，當時煤價超過了100美元，該報告稱，每噸煤還會耗費43美元的社會成本。報告稱，定價機制沒有反映出這種外部支出，因爲煤炭生產商需要支付環境稅，每噸只要5到8美元。該研究還發現，應該爲大部分社會成本負責的是工廠、發電廠等用戶，而並不是煤炭公司，總負擔中有64%是通過煤炭燃燒產生電力，供工廠及居民使用的過程中產生的污染。

The council and its Chinese partners are developing carbon tax proposals that would take into consideration these ‘‘true costs,’’ to adequately offset them.

自然資源保護協會及其中國合作伙伴正在制定碳稅提案，該提案會將這些“真實成本”考慮在內，以便充分抵消它們。

Zhou Fengqi, senior adviser at the Energy Research Institute — a government-affiliated research group that is part of the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planning agency — applauded the new findings, with reservations. He was skeptical that the goals would be feasible within the span of a single five-year plan. ‘‘If we are going to implement such taxes, it must be done in steps so as not to have a negative effect on the Chinese economy, even in the short term,’’ Mr. Zhou said.

能源研究所高級顧問周鳳起對這些新研究表示稱讚，但有所保留。這家政府下屬的研究機構隸屬於中國最高經濟規劃機構國家發展與改革委員會。他對能否在一個五年計劃內完成目標表示懷疑。他說，“如果我們準備徵收這種稅，必須一步一步來，避免對中國經濟產生負面影響，即便是短期內的負面影響。”

But he acknowledged that China could no longer turn a blind eye to its smoggy skies: ‘‘Even in Zhongnanhai’’ — the leadership compound in Beijing — ‘‘they’re breathing in all this pollution and realize how uncomfortable it is.’’

但他承認中國不會再對霧霾天視而不見：“即便在中南海”——領導人在北京的住所——“他們吸入的也是受到污染的空氣，他們知道這有多不舒服。”