日本政壇的怪客二人組

Shintaro Ishihara climbs atop a campaign van parked in front of the train station in Yokohama, just south of Tokyo, and addresses the crowd with his trademark bluntness.

石原慎太郎(Shintaro Ishihara)爬上停在橫濱火車站前的一輛競選車輛的車頂，以他標誌性的直率向一羣民衆發表演說。橫濱是位於東京南部的一座城市。

Japan is like the Titanic, Mr Ishihara suggests to several hundred supporters as he recounts the tragic tale of the passenger liner, which sank in the North Atlantic killing more than 1,500 people.

石原慎太郎在數百名支持者面前提到泰坦尼克號(Titanic)的悲劇故事，這艘客輪在北大西洋沉沒，超過1500人遇難，他表示，日本當前的形勢與泰坦尼克號無異。

“Even as the Titanic was sinking, the orchestra continued to play,” says Mr Ishihara. “If things get worse, this country will face the same fate.

石原慎太郎稱：“在泰坦尼克號沉沒的過程中，船上的樂隊仍在繼續演奏。如果日本的形勢持續惡化，則可能面臨和泰坦尼克號同樣的命運。”

“We need to destroy this rigid government and in order to do that, we need new politicians in government,” he says.

他指出：“我們必須摧毀目前這個僵化的政府，爲了實現這一點，我們應讓新一代政治人物登上舞臺。”

The former novelist turned rightwing politician, a four-term Tokyo governor who is often in the news for his controversial remarks, needs little introduction to Japanese voters. But he announced himself to a wider, global audience this year sparking a diplomatic crisis by trying to buy two islands in the East China Sea that are controlled by Japan but also claimed by China and Taiwan.

石原慎太郎在成爲一名右翼政客之前曾是一位小說家，他曾四度出任東京都知事，並常因富於爭議的言論在新聞媒體上拋頭露面。日本選民對他已經頗爲熟悉。但今年石原慎太郎使日本以外範圍更廣的觀衆知道了他的存在，他試圖購買中國東海海域三座島嶼的舉動引發了一場外交危機，這三座島嶼目前被日本控制，但中國大陸和臺灣也聲稱對其具有領土權。

The repercussions are still being felt with tensions between Asia’s two biggest economies at their worst for years and Japanese manufacturers losing sales in China.

此次事件的餘波目前仍未散去，這兩大亞洲經濟體之間的關係目前處於多年以來最爲緊張的時期，日本製造企業在中國的銷售額開始出現下滑。

The incident appears to have given the 80-year-old Mr Ishihara, who quit last month as Tokyo governor to run for a seat in the lower house of parliament in Sunday’s election, a taste for the national stage as the unlikely face of political change in Japan.

但這一事件似乎使現年80歲的石原慎太郎有興趣作爲日本政治改革的冷門代表人物登上國家政治舞臺。爲了在週日的競選中角逐日本衆議院席位，他已於上月辭去了東京都知事一職。

He has joined forces with the charismatic mayor of Osaka, 43-year-old Toru Hashimoto, and assumed leadership of Mr Hashimoto’s Japan Restoration party. They are the odd couple of Japanese politics trying to create a serious third force in the country’s volatile political culture. The coupling looks more like a marriage of convenience than a long-term relationship, with both already having to compromise on policies and some confusion among voters about what the three-month-old party stands for.

石原慎太郎已與現年43歲、頗具個人魅力的大阪市長橋下徹(Toru Hashimoto)結成了競選聯盟，併成爲橋下徹的“日本維新會”(Japan Restoration party)的領導人。這對古怪的搭檔正在努力成爲日本動盪的政壇文化中不可忽視的“第三極”。兩人的結盟看起來更像是出於方便考慮，而非旨在結成長期合作關係，因爲兩人都需在政策主張方面做出妥協，爲在選民中明確梳理這個成立僅三個月的政黨的政治立場也需做出讓步。

Its aim, however, is clear. The party wants to exploit a wave of disillusionment with the political establishment and powerful bureaucrats, a dissatisfaction that brought the ruling Democratic party to power in 2009. An advocate of decentralisation, Mr Hashimoto, who is not a candidate in Sunday’s election, launched the Restoration party in Osaka in September as the first national political force based outside Tokyo.

然而這一同盟的目標非常明確。日本維新會希望利用人們對政治體制及掌權官僚的新一輪幻滅情緒——2009年類似的不滿情緒曾將目前掌權的民主黨送上權力頂峯。提倡地方分權的橋下徹並不是週日大選的候選人，今年9月他在大阪創立了日本維新會，這是日本第一個總部位於東京之外的全國性政黨。

“Politics today doesn’t do anything for the people. Politicians don’t say anything that is true,” Mr Hashimoto says forcefully, after joining Mr Ishihara on top of the van.

在石原慎太郎之後橋下徹也爬上了車頂，他強硬地表態說：“如今的政治沒有爲人民辦一件事，如今的政客沒有一句真話。”

His party’s strength is concentrated in Osaka, where it has an organisation that has won local leadership and assembly elections, says Stephen Reed, professor of policy studies at Chuo University in Tokyo. And it relies on the popularity of Mr Hashimoto, who has won a strong following for his fiery rhetoric, war on wasteful public spending and calls for reform, often made on Twitter, where he has more than 900,000 followers.

東京中央大學(Chuo University)政策研究教授斯蒂芬·裏德(Stephen Reed)表示，橋下徹政黨的影響力集中於大阪附近，在這裏該黨贏得了當地政府的領導權以及議會選舉。而這些則有賴於橋下徹的人氣，他吸引大批追隨者的法寶是狂熱的言辭、對鋪張的公共開支的大加鞭笞以及提倡改革的言論。這些言論經常發表在Twitter上，爲此他在Twitter上擁有超過90萬粉絲。

Mr Hashimoto is greeted with calls of “ganbatte”, or “good luck”, from the voters, who seem dazzled by the former lawyer who made his name first as a television personality, then as governor of Osaka prefecture, before becoming mayor of Japan’s second-largest city – a position he still holds.

橋下徹不時會聽到選民的“加油”聲。這些選民看起來爲這位前律師的風采傾倒。橋下徹最初因電視節目成名，之後成爲大阪府知事，後來任日本第二大城市大阪市市長至今。

Many would agree that Japan needs the strong leadership at a national level that Mr Ishihara and Mr Hashimoto have shown in local government. But with Mr Ishihara as representative and Mr Hashimoto as his deputy, the Restoration party suffers from confusion over its leadership and policies.

許多人會同意，石原慎太郎和橋下徹在地方政府中所顯示出來的強勢領導風格，正是日本在國家層面所需要的。然而日本維新會以石原慎太郎爲黨代表，以橋下徹爲代理代表，這使該黨處於一種領導和政治主張上的混亂狀態。

While the two politicians share a nationalistic outlook, a populist appeal and a mission to fight government bureaucracy, their differences are also marked.

儘管這兩位政治人物都有民族主義的觀點、平民化的形象以及打擊政府官僚主義的使命，他們的不同也非常明顯。

Mr Ishihara belonged to Japan’s most established and faction-ridden political party, the LDP, for 25 years while Mr Hashimoto built his party from scratch, admitting only those who agreed with his policies.

石原慎太郎曾在日本勢力最大、派系林立的政黨自民黨(LDP)中呆過25年。而橋下徹則從頭組建了自己的政黨，這一政黨只允許認同他政治主張的人進入。

“I don’t know why Ishihara joined hands with Hashimoto. I don’t understand the Restoration party,” says Keiko Arima, an architectural consultant.

一位建築顧問Keiko Arima表示：“我不知道爲什麼石原慎太郎要與橋下徹聯手。我無法理解日本維新會。”

Even more damaging is the lack of clarity on the party’s policies.

更糟糕的是日本維新會的政治主張不夠清晰。

Mr Hashimoto is against nuclear power, Mr Ishihara is a strong supporter and once even said Japan should consider developing nuclear weapons. The two are also at odds on whether Japan should open its markets more by joining the trans-Pacific partnership.

橋下徹反對核武器，而石原慎太郎強烈支持核武器——他甚至曾表態說日本應該考慮發展核武器。在日本是否應該通過加入“跨太平洋夥伴關係協議”(TPP)，來更大程度地開放日本市場這一問題上，兩人的觀點也不一致。

Such confusion partly explains the Restoration party’s relatively low public support in polls despite its hugely popular leaders.

這種政治主張上的混亂在一定程度上能解釋，爲何日本維新會的領導人極受歡迎，而該黨在民調中的公衆支持率卻相對較低。

NHK, the public broadcaster, found the Restoration party in third place after the main opposition, Liberal Democratic party’s 24.7 per cent and the ruling Democratic party’s 17 per cent but with a support rating of just 4 per cent.

公共電視臺NHK調查發現，目前支持率排名爲，主要反對黨自民黨24.7%，執政黨民主黨17%，日本維新會雖然位居第三，但支持率只有4%。

Nevertheless, voter un-happiness with the main parties is such that the Restoration party is forecast to increase its lower house representation from 11 to about 35 members, according to a poll by the Asahi newspaper last week.

然而，《朝日新聞》(Asahi)上週的一項調查顯示，由於選民對兩大政黨的不滿，日本維新會在日本衆議院的代表席位預計將從11人增加到大約35人。