關注社會:香港銀行家們該充電了

The investment banking jobs market in Hong Kong is dire. But there are no signs of a summer exodus of expat bankers to ease pressure on that most scarce of resources – school places.

香港投行業的就業形勢很差，但目前看不到外籍銀行家在夏季成批離開香港、給本地最稀缺資源——學校學位——減輕了壓力的跡象。

Investment banks across Asia have shrunk staff through occasional cuts and broad attrition as market activity has stumbled, leaving plenty of former bankers kicking their heels, according to recruiters and industry executives.

按照招聘人員和行業高管們的說法，在整個亞洲地區，隨着市場活動驟減，投行紛紛通過裁員和自然減員來減少人手，使得大量"前銀行家"無所事事。

Many expats could struggle to find new jobs in Hong Kong banking. Firstly, global banks have become more realistic on the profits to be made in Asia, especially since most of the really big state-backed Chinese listings have been done. This entails a fresh look at the resources they really need when their US and European businesses are making less money and the banks are less prepared to subsidise Asian arms.

許多外籍銀行家可能很難在香港銀行業找到新的工作。首先，國際性銀行對亞洲盈利前景的認識變得更加現實，尤其是在大多數真正大型的、政府支持的中資IPO都已經完成的情況下。因此，鑑於歐美業務盈利下降，而且銀行自身也更加不樂意爲亞洲附屬機構提供資助，他們有必要重新審視自己真正需要的資源。

Secondly, in Hong Kong in particular, recruiters say they are being asked to find native Mandarin speakers – especially those with some international education and experience – to fill what few jobs there are.

其次，招聘人員表示，新職位往往要求會講普通話的本地人才，尤其是具有海外留學和工作經驗的人才——這一點在香港尤其明顯——而且空缺職位也爲數不多。

A third cloud over the industry not just in Hong Kong but globally is the fear that we have left behind the years of peak market velocity, which is a measure of how often each equity share changes hands, or each unit of bank capital is reused to create a new loan. In equities, this would mean a future of lower stock market activity – and lower income for the banks that facilitate it.

銀行業的第三個問題不僅僅限於香港，而且是全球性的：人們擔心，現在已經不是市場週轉率處於高峯的那幾年。市場週轉率是衡量股票換手率或每單位銀行資本放貸率的指標。就股市而言，這將意味着未來股票市場活動減少，爲市場交易提供服務的銀行的收入也將相應下降。

But here is a big reason to be much more positive on Asia and all aspects of its financial system even as China's economy slows. The west is struggling to get real growth juice out of the monetary stimulus that has been pursued over the past three years. A big part of that is due to regulatory changes that are explicitly putting a brake on velocity in bank capital and limiting the diversity of the financial system. In China and the rest of emerging Asia precisely the opposite is true. These economies are slowly creating the conditions where the financial system will get much more punching power out of each unit of capital employed – whether that is in the equity market or in banking.

但是，我們仍然大有理由看好亞洲及其金融體系的各個領域，儘管中國經濟在減速。西方國家在過去三年出臺了各項貨幣刺激政策，但它們仍難以從中獲得真正的增長活力。這在很大程度上歸咎於監管改革，監管改革明顯抑制了銀行資本的週轉率，限制了金融體系的多元化。而在中國和新興亞洲的其它地區，情況則恰恰相反。這些經濟體正在慢慢地創造條件，讓金融體系能夠從資本的使用中獲得更大的動力，無論在股市還是在銀行業。

Western finance is experiencing a very painful gear-change from one that turned out to be way too high for the economic engine. Emerging Asia is barely out of first gear in finance terms.

西方金融業正在經歷一個非常痛苦的換擋過程，目前所在的檔位對經濟發動機來說實在太高了。新興亞洲的金融處於一檔則基本上沒什麼問題。

This is changing in number of ways – through policy in China and through evolution elsewhere. It will create more financial jobs – but will be in different places and doing different things than the equity-market focused jobs with global banks of the recent past.

改變有多種方式：中國的政策和其他地區的發展。它將創造更多的金融職位，但工作地點和工作內容都有所不同，並非過去幾年國際性銀行中專注於股市的職位。

In China, there is a long way to go and progress will probably remain slow, but things are changing. Hong Kong's 15th anniversary of its return to China from British sovereignty has seen a welter of initiatives. Some are iterative, such as the first Hong Kong listed exchange traded funds to invest directly in Chinese stocks, or expansion of offshore renminbi bonds issuance. Others are quite new, such as allowing Hong Kong banks to lend directly to Chinese companies in an area near Shenzhen. There have also been signals that mainland insurers will get much more investment freedom.

中國仍有很長的路要走，進展可能依然緩慢，但情況正在改變。中國在慶祝香港迴歸15週年之際出臺了一系列舉措。其中一些是之前提到過的，比如香港首隻可直接投資於內地股市的交易所交易基金(ETF)，擴大離岸人民幣債券發行。其它則是全新的舉措，比如允許香港的銀行向深圳一個地區的中資企業直接放貸。還有跡象表明，中國內地保險公司將獲得更大的投資自由。

In the rest of Asia, excluding Japan, more radical change is happening in both markets and investment banking generally. Local investment banks are playing an increasingly important role in linking local companies with their markets. The split in total investment banking fees between international banks and domestic Asian banks has reversed in recent years. In 2003, international banks took 66 per cent of all fees to domestic banks' 34 per cent, according to Dealogic. So far this year, international banks have taken their lowest share of fees ever: 40 per cent versus domestic banks' 60 per cent.

在其它亞洲地區（不包括日本），市場和投行業普遍出現了更根本的變化。本土投行在充當本土公司和市場橋樑方面發揮着越來越重要的作用。在投行手續費收入總額中，國際性銀行與亞洲本土銀行的佔比短短几年就發生了逆轉。Dealogic的數據表明，2003年，在實現的所有投行手續費中，國際銀行佔66%，而本土銀行佔34%。今年迄今爲止，國際銀行的份額爲40%，創出有史以來的最低水平，而本土銀行爲60%。

Four of the top-10 fee earning banks so far this year are Chinese – CITIC Securities, Guosen Securities, Bank of China and GF Securities – while Malaysia's CIMB and China International Capital are in the top 15.

今年迄今爲止，亞洲投行手續費收入前十名的銀行中，有四家是中資機構——中信證券(Citic Securities)、國信證券(Guosen Securities)、中國銀行(Bank of China)和廣發證券(GF Securities)，同時馬來西亞的聯昌國際銀行(CIMB)和中國國際金融公司(China International Capital Corporation)排在十五位以內。

Asian bond issuance is also running at levels never seen before with nearly $500bn worth done already in the first half, according to Dealogic. Hong Kong saw the biggest jump.

Dealogic的數據顯示，亞洲債券發行量也處於歷來最高水平，今年上半年發行額接近5000億美元。香港債券發行量的增幅最大。

This not only gives companies more funding sources but also it is the first stage in recycling bank capital with more velocity by strengthening routes to refinance traditional loans.

這不僅讓企業獲得了更多的融資來源，而且它也是加快銀行資本再週轉的第一階段，增強了爲傳統貸款再融資的途徑。

Those out of work Hong Kong bankers may need to find different skills to use in different institutions but Asia still looks like the best place to be.

在香港，那些失業的銀行家可能需要掌握各種不同的技能，以便在不同的機構中使用，不過，亞洲看起來仍然是首選之地。