香港房價下跌將引連鎖反應 或重創銀行

Hong Kong’s sheer tower blocks offer fabulous views of forested peaks and busy shipping channels to those who have the stomach to resist a touch of vertigo. But right now it is not just the physical height that will make your head spin.

對甘願忍受輕微眩暈的人來說，在香港的摩天大樓上可以欣賞樹木鬱鬱蔥蔥的山峯和船隻川流不息的航道。但現在讓人頭暈的不只是大樓的物理高度。

Residential property prices are near record highs as the tiny island has been squeezed between Chinese money looking to escape the mainland and the ultra-loose monetary policies of the US Federal Reserve.

內地資金大量涌入香港，再加上美聯儲(Fed)的超寬鬆貨幣政策，推動香港住宅價格在歷史高位附近徘徊。

For local banks facing the risks of a bubble bursting, the great saving grace is that there are quite strict limits on the loan-to-value ratios allowed for mortgage lending. Even with a heavy drop in prices – some are predicting up to 30 per cent falls this year – losses should be limited. However, in combination with rising interest rates and the ebbing of both the Chinese economy and US liquidity, small property price declines will be painful for the island’s most sophisticated banks.

對面臨泡沫破裂風險的香港本土銀行來說，幸運的是，在發放抵押貸款時，它們在貸款估值比率方面有着相當嚴格的限制。即便房價大幅下跌——有些人預計今年跌幅可能高達30%——銀行的損失也應該有限。然而，伴隨着利率上升、中國經濟減速以及美國流動性減退的情況，房價即便小幅下跌，也會讓香港最頂尖的銀行感到痛苦。

The money flooding into Hong Kong, much of it from China, has been eye-popping in the past couple of years. Home prices are 20 per cent higher than the previous record set in 1997, just ahead of the Asian financial crisis, according to the Centaline Index, from the city’s largest estate agency.

過去兩年裏涌入香港的資金規模令人瞠目，其中大多來自中國內地。根據香港最大的房地產經紀機構中原地產代理有限公司(Centaline)編制的指數，香港現在的房價比1997年創下的上一個歷史紀錄還要高20%，當時正值亞洲金融危機爆發前夕。

Most apartments in Hong Kong cost between HK$10,000 (US$1,300) per sq ft and more than HK$30,000 – which in London, for example, is barely matched by the most exclusive inner-west areas of Kensington, Chelsea or Marylebone.

香港公寓價格普遍在每平方英尺1萬港元（合1300美元）到3萬港元，而在其他城市，比如倫敦，只有肯辛頓、切爾西、馬裏波恩這些最高檔的內西區地段纔有這麼高的價格。

The flood of cash has come in other ways too. Sales of watches, jewellery and luxury gifts remain fabulous in spite of the crackdown on corruption in China. Almost one dollar out of every four spent in the city’s shops last year went on such things, hitting a total of $15.2bn, which was 25 per cent higher than the year before, according to government statistics.

資金洪流也通過其他方式涌入香港。儘管中國大力開展反腐運動，但香港手錶、珠寶和高檔禮品依然熱賣。政府統計數據顯示，去年在香港商店消費的每4美元當中，就有接近1美元是購買了此類商品，購買總額高達152億美元，比上年增長25%。

Even the most ardent proponent of the “trickle down effect” would struggle to show how normal people had benefited in any way from this kind of spending, but it is unarguable that Chinese money has driven Hong Kong in many ways. On the flip side, though, the correlation between property price rises and the expansion of the Fed’s asset base shows the influence of US monetary policy – which is beginning to change course.

即便是“涓滴效應”理論的最忠實擁躉也很難證明，普通人如何受益於這種支出，但無可爭辯的是，內地資金從許多方面影響着香港。另一方面，香港房價上漲與美聯儲資產基礎擴張之間的關聯顯示出美國貨幣政策的影響，而後者開始轉向。

Hong Kong faces similar issues to other small Asian economies. Rising interest rates and the slowing of the biggest economy in Asia spell an end to special conditions enjoyed over the past few years, which have pushed down default rates and losses to lenders to negligible levels. For southeast Asia, the rising cost of money and the growing scarcity of foreign money in capital markets is coming at the same time as current accounts have deteriorated and local banks have seen deposit funding shrivel. Companies and people have spent more and saved less. The risk is a whiplash effect on the cost and availability of credit, the ability of locals to service their loans and the losses banks will suffer as a result. The influence of Fed policy has pushed local interest rates lower than theyshould have been given economic fundamentals (the BIS reckons 1.5 percentage points lower on average across emerging markets), so the unwinding looks likely to send them much higher than they ought to be for local conditions.

香港面臨着和其他亞洲小型經濟體一樣的問題。利率不斷走高，加上亞洲最大經濟體出現增長放緩，意味着過去幾年特殊的資金寬鬆狀況走到了盡頭——寬鬆的資金狀況降低了違約率，以致銀行沒有遭受多少損失。在東南亞地區，與資金成本上漲和外國資金退出資本市場相伴隨的是，經常賬戶惡化以及本土銀行的存款資金萎縮。企業和個人加大支出，減少儲蓄。這就有可能對信貸成本及供應、還有本地貸款者的還貸能力產生“鞭梢效應”，從而導致銀行遭受損失。在美聯儲政策影響下，這些地區的利率低於從經濟基本面考慮應有的水平——國際清算銀行(BIS)估計，平均而言，新興市場利率比合理水平低1.5個百分點。因此，美聯儲退出刺激政策很可能導致這些地區的利率遠高於與基本面相匹配的水平。

In Hong Kong, these problems are familiar. The HK Monetary Authority has reported that local deposits were shrinking and loan to deposit ratios rising in both local and foreign currencies. The authority has warned on the sharp increase in US dollar loans, especially to offshore, mostly Chinese borrowers. This borrower behaviour, predicated on higher interest rates inside China and an always appreciating renminbi, has been exposed now that the currency is changing direction.

香港對這些問題並不陌生。香港金融管理局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority)公佈，本地存款萎縮，本外幣業務的貸存比都在上升。香港金管局已經對美元貸款（尤其是主要流向內地借款者的離岸美元貸款）的急劇增長髮出了警告。這種借款行爲——基於內地利率較高和人民幣此前一路升值——已經面臨風險，因爲人民幣匯率走勢正在轉向。

For Hong Kong’s most sophisticated banks, however, there is an extra sting in the tail. Coinciding perfectly with the special conditions unleashed by US Fed policy, the HKMA allowed HSBC, its subsidiary Hang Seng Bank and Standard Chartered, to introduce advanced internal ratings-based capital measures in 2008.

然而，香港頂級銀行還另有一個不妙的地方。與美聯儲政策造成的特殊資金狀況完全同步的是，香港金管局在2008年允許匯豐(HSBC)及其旗下的恆生銀行(Hang Seng Bank)以及渣打銀行(Standard Chartered)在計算資本時採用“高級內部評級基準計算法”。

These let the banks hold less capital when asset values are high (particularly property) and credit performance is good. This is highly pro-cyclical. Analysts at Morgan Stanley believe it has allowed those three banks to lower dramatically risk-weighted assets as a proportion of total assets even as overall lending has accelerated. What is worse is that the authorities have allowed the banks to ascribe similar risks to corporate borrowers outside Hong Kong as to those inside. Offshore loans have gone from 10 per cent of total lending to more than 30 per cent since 2006.

按照這種方法，三家銀行在資產（尤其是房地產）價值較高、信用狀況良好時可以持有較少資本。該方法極具“順週期”特點。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的分析師們相信，該政策讓三家銀行得以大幅降低風險加權資產佔總資產的比例，即便總體放貸加快了增長。更糟糕的是，香港當局允許銀行對境內外企業借款者進行一樣的風險評估。目前，香港離岸貸款佔總貸款的比重已經由2006年的10%升至30%以上。

Morgan Stanley’s analysts do not believe Hong Kong’s big beasts will need to raise capital to cope, but more capital will be needed to cover existing loans and so will not be available to back new lending or to fund dividends. Just like interest rates in Asia, growth and payouts for Hong Kong’s big banks look likely to whiplash too.

摩根士丹利的分析師們相信，香港的“巨獸”銀行不需要籌集資本，但它們將需要撥備更多的資本來覆蓋現有貸款，這將擠佔用於發放新貸款或者派發股息的資金。與亞洲地區的利率一樣，香港大銀行的業績增長和股息派發情況看來也會遭受衝擊。