探討中國雙速樓市的政策困境

Century Town, a vast Property development 30km from the centre of the eastern Chinese port city of Qingdao, proclaims its "Spanish building quality" complete with archways and red tiled roofs.

"世紀城"是距中國東部港口城市青島市市中心30公里處的一處大型房地產開發項目。該項目宣稱採用"西班牙建築風格"，建有拱門和紅瓦屋頂。

But the empty apartments and falling prices evoke another side of Spain–the housing market bubble that has savaged the Mediterranean economy.

但空蕩蕩的公寓和不斷下跌的房價令人想起西班牙的另一面：肆虐地中海經濟的住房市場泡沫。

The question facing China, say analysts, is whether it will suffer a similar fate, depriving the fragile global economy of its most important Growth engine and spelling the end of the past decade's commodity boom.

分析師稱，中國面臨的問題是，它是否會遭受類似的命運，使得脆弱的全球經濟喪失最重要的增長引擎，導致過去十年的大宗商品繁榮結束。

Any answer will lie somewhere between the two different faces of China's property market. In the biggest developed cities, houses are beyond the reach of all but the wealthiest citizens. But in the rest of the country, which represents the majority, property is now more affordable than it has been for years, making developers less inclined to build more. For the government, which has intervened to rein in real estate speculation, the two-speed property market presents a dilemma. With the economy slowing sharply, should it worry more about frothy prices in big cities or weak construction activity elsewhere?

任何答案都將藏於中國房地產市場的雙重特徵之間。在最大的發達城市，只有最有錢的市民纔買得起房子。但在其它的絕大多數城市，人們比前幾年更能負擔得起房價，這使得開發商不太願意建造更多的房子。對進行干預以遏制房地產投機的政府而言，雙速房地產市場導致了一個兩難困境。隨着經濟急劇放緩，中國政府是更應該擔心大城市的房價泡沫，還是更應該擔心其它城市建築活動的低迷？

"Policy makers target the very expensive cities, but these cities account for only about a quarter of national sales volume and the crackdown on them has a nationwide impact," said Rosealea Yao of GK Dragonomics, a research firm.

研究機構龍洲經訊(GK Dragonomics)的咬麗薔(Rosealea Yao)表示："政策制定者將矛頭對準房價非常高的城市，但這些城市的住房銷量只佔全國的25%左右，同時對它們的打壓具有全國性的影響。"

Property construction has accounted for about 15 per cent of China's gross domestic product in recent years and its deceleration has taken a toll on the economy. Growth is forecast to slow to an annual rate of about 7.5 per cent in the current quarter, its slowest since early 2009.

近幾年房地產建築活動約佔中國國內生產總值(GDP)的15%，它的減速已對經濟造成了影響。預計本季度中國的經濟增速將放緩至7.5%左右，爲2009年以來的最低水平。

Aware of the dangers, the central government has started to loosen its reins ever so slightly. It has encouraged banks to offer discounts on mortgages to first-time home buyers and has prodded developers to increase the construction of cheaper homes. There are signs the policy shifts are yielding results. Qingdao and other cities have reported a pick-up in home sales in recent weeks. But a debate over the affordability of property remains.

中國中央政府意識到了這些風險，開始極其輕微地放鬆限制。它鼓勵銀行向首次購房者提供優惠貸款，並激勵開發商加大建造價格較低的住房。有跡象表明政策轉變正在收到成效。青島和其它城市報道稱最近幾周的房屋銷量出現增長。但圍繞人們能否買得起住房的爭論仍在繼續。

In China, economists see a house price-to-income ratio of about seven as reasonable, as was historically the case in fast-developing Asian economies. The norm in rich countries is closer to four. Ms Yao of Dragonomics says the good news is that the nationwide market is fast approaching the preferred level as housing prices edge down while wages climb. The price-to-income ratio for houses peaked at 8.1 in 2009, but fell to 7.4 last year and will decline further this year, according to the Shanghai E-House real estate research institute.

經濟學家認爲中國房價收入比在7左右時是合理的，歷史上其它快速發展的亞洲經濟體就是如此。目前富裕國家的房價收入比接近4。龍洲經訊的咬麗薔表示，好消息是，隨着房價微跌和工資增長，全國房地產市場正迅速接近理想水平。根據房地產研究機構上海易居中國(E-House)的數據，中國房價收入比曾在2009年達到8.1的峯值，但去年降至7.4，今年將會進一步下降。

The bad news is price-to-income ratios in China's leading cities are still high: 12.4 in Shanghai, 11.6 in Beijing and 15.6 in Shenzhen. "Affordability has been improving since the correction started last year. But it's not been happening quickly enough. That is why the central government has insisted on maintaining its policies," said Wei Yao, economist with Societe Generale.

壞消息是，中國主要城市的房價收入比仍非常高：上海12.4，北京11.6，深圳爲15.6。法國興業銀行(Societe Generale)的經濟學家姚偉表示："自去年開始調控以來，人們的房價負擔能力有所提高，但提高的速度還不夠快。這就是中央政府繼續堅持調控政策的原因。"

Qingdao, best known as the home of Tsingtao beer, is one of the many places caught in the crossfire of the government's campaign to cool the property market. Its houses are among the most affordable of China's major cities – with a price-to-income ratio of exactly seven last year – and yet sales have plummeted by a third this year.

以青島啤酒聞名於世的青島，是因政府採取房地產市場降溫措施而陷入困境的衆多城市之一。青島是人們最負擔得起房價的主要城市之一，去年房價收入比正好是7，但今年房屋銷量仍暴跌三分之一。

It is not hard to see why. In Century Town's showroom, the faux marble columns are overshadowed by a giant sign with large red text explaining the government's home purchase restriction rule. The single most powerful weapon in Beijing's arsenal of real estate controls, it prevents existing homeowners from buying a second property.

原因並不難理解。在世紀城的樣板間，一面用大紅字體解釋政府限購政策的巨大標牌遮住了人造大理石石柱。限購是中國政府房地產調控政策"彈藥庫"中最有力的武器，它限制了現有房屋業主購買第二套住房。

"This has suppressed a lot of demand. People have waited and waited for prices to collapse," said Chang Le, a construction engineer at Century Town who has seen the pace of building work slow significantly. "We can go back over our old work and do the same thing twice, but there isn't really much useful new work to do."

世紀城建築工程師常樂已見證了建築施工速度大幅放緩，他表示："這種政策抑制了大量的需求。人們一直等着價格崩盤。我們可以回過頭重複以前的工作，將同樣的工作做兩遍，但現在真的沒有多少有用的新工作可做。"

According to Mr Chang, the development, designed to house 50,000 people over an area as big as 250 football fields, was intended to be completed by 2014. With just a handful of tower blocks complete and most of the land lying untouched, he says 2018 is more likely.

常樂表示，這是一個面積足有250個足球場大、可容納5萬人居住的開發項目，計劃在2014年完工。他稱，由於目前僅有少數幾個塔樓完工，大部分土地仍未動工，該項目更有可能在2018年才完工。

But the buyers are still coming. On a recent visit, Ken Zhang walked carefully across planks over an open pit to a half-finished building to show his girlfriend the apartment he had just bought but will not take possession of until next year. "Everyone has been paying attention to this development, because it is a big one. I saw the prices go down and I thought they were now reasonable. I can't see them falling by much more," he said.

但仍有前來看房的買家。在最近的一次看房中，張肯（音）小心翼翼地走過橫在露天坑洞上的木板，來到一幢半完工的樓前，讓他的女友看他剛剛購買但明年纔會入住的公寓。他表示："由於這個項目非常大，所以所有人都在關注。我看到價格跌下來了，我想目前的價格是合理的。我認爲房價不可能下跌太多。"

But trying to engineer the perfect housing market correction–cooling prices in big cities while stimulating construction elsewhere–may prove too much for China's central planners.

但對中國中央計劃者們而言，進行完美的住房市場調控——讓大城市房價下跌，同時刺激其它城市的建築活動——可能有些吃力。