政策作用下 中國股市大幅下跌

HONG KONG – Stocks in China plunged 7.7 percent on Monday, the largest one-day sell-off since the 2008 financial crisis. But China’s top securities regulator, Xiao Gang, showed no sign of concern as he addressed a financial forum here.

香港——中國股市週一暴跌了7.7%，爲自2008年金融危機以來最大的單日拋盤。但中國證券最高監管人肖鋼於香港一個金融論壇上發表講話時，沒有表現出擔憂的跡象。

After all, the sell-off was largely engineered by Mr. Xiao’s agency. On Friday evening, the China Securities Regulatory Commission cracked down on borrowing to invest in shares by placing a temporary ban on margin financing against three of China’s biggest brokerages. Lending money to investors so they can trade shares has played a big role in the phenomenal rise in Chinese shares.

畢竟，此次拋盤在很大程度上由肖鋼的機構策劃。週五傍晚，中國證券監督管理委員會通過對三家中國最大的券商實施融資融券的臨時禁令，嚴厲打擊以投資股票爲目的的借貸。向投資者貸款讓他們能夠進行股票交易的做法，對中國股市的驚人上揚起了極大的作用。

Containing risk is a key priority for Mr. Xiao, who as chairman of the regulatory commission, presides over what was the world’s best-performing stock market last year. Many economists and analysts said that the nearly 40 percent rise over the last three months was unsustainable, a bubble waiting to pop.

控制風險是肖鋼的重中之重，他作爲監管委員會的主席，主持着去年世界上表現最佳的股票市場。許多經濟學家和分析師說，過去三個月的近40%的增長不可持續，那是一個待破的泡沫。

“The C.S.R.C. worries that some brokers have not been fully compliant in their margin finance operations, which may lead to substantial losses of their clients, and brokers themselves, in case of a market correction,” Leon Qi, an analyst at Daiwa Capital Markets, said on Monday. “Hence it ‘engineered’ a market correction.”

“證監會擔心，一些證券商在他們融資融券類業務中的做法不完全符合規則，如遇市場調整，可能會給他們的客戶及券商自己造成重大損失，”大和資本市場(Daiwa Capital Markets)分析師齊曉亮(Leon Qi)週一說。“因此證監會‘策劃’了一次市場調整。”

Mr. Xiao did not specifically refer to Monday’s market sell-off. Instead, Mr. Xiao offered high praise for a new pilot program linking the Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges, describing it as “a very important innovation” because while it cracks open the door to China’s still largely closed capital account, the program does so in a way that “the risk can be controlled.”

肖鋼沒有具體提及週一的市場拋盤，而是對一個連接上海與香港股票交易所的試點項目給予了高度評價，稱其爲資本行業提供了“新的發展空間”，因爲該項目敲開了中國在很大程度上仍處於封閉的資本賬戶的大門，而且是以一種“風險可控”的方式實現的。

In the broader context of moves by policy makers to soften China’s economic slowdown, the securities regulator’s actions follow steps by the central bank, the People’s Bank of China, to cut interest rates and loosen lending restrictions on banks. Analysts said Beijing’s overall goal was to ensure that new liquidity created by the easing of monetary policy found its way into productive sectors of the economy, where it can help create jobs, and does not just get plowed into the stock market.

在政策制定者力圖減緩中國經濟增長放慢速度的大背景之下，證券監管機構的行動是繼作爲央行的中國人民銀行降息和放鬆對銀行貸款限制的步驟之後。分析人士稱，北京的總體目標是，確保放鬆貨幣政策所產生的新資金流動性進入生產性的經濟行業，幫助在這些行業創造就業機會，而不只是被再投資到股票市場。

This coordinated approach among financial regulators “should also help provide the People’s Bank of China with more flexibility on future monetary policy with less concern on the potential negative ‘side effects’ if further easing is needed,” Morgan Stanley analysts led by Richard Xu wrote on Monday in a research report.

以徐然(Richard Xu)爲首的摩根士丹利分析師們在週一的一份研究報告中寫道，金融監管機構的這種協調做法“也應有助於讓中國人民銀行在未來貨幣政策上有更多的靈活性，而不必過多地擔心潛在的負面‘副作用’，如果需要進一步放鬆政策的話。”

The regulatory commission said on Friday that it had investigated 45 brokerages and announced a three-month ban against three of them from opening new margin financing accounts on behalf of clients. Those three were Citic Securities, Haitong Securities and Guotai Junan Securities — all large, state-owned companies that were discovered by the regulator to have violated rules by extending margin financing and securities lending to a large number of clients beyond the contracted term, usually six months.

證監會上週五表示，它已檢查了45家證券公司，並對其中的三家宣佈了一個爲期三個月的禁令，讓它們暫停爲客戶建立新的融資融券賬戶。這三家分別是中信證券、海通證券和國泰君安證券，都是大型國有企業，監管人員發現它們向大批客戶提供超出一般六個月合同期限的融資融證貸款，違反了規則。

The suspension of new margin financing accounts is likely have a significant effect on the brokerages, which had been ramping up such activity in recent months. Several, including Citic and Haitong, had taken advantage of their own surging share prices to announce new offerings of stock, the proceeds of which would partly have been used to invest further in margin financing.

暫停新開融資融券賬戶的禁令對證券公司可能產生較大的影響，這些公司在最近幾個月裏極大地增加了此類帳戶的數量。包括中信和海通在內的幾家證券公司，利用自家公司股票價格的大幅上漲，已宣佈要發行新股，如果發行，部分所得將會被用於融資融券業務的進一步投資上。

In an announcement late on Sunday responding to the regulatory commission’s ruling, Citic Securities said it would take a number of steps to reduce risk in its existing margin finance business, including raising the minimum amount of assets that a client must have to secure such financing, to 500,000 renminbi, or about $81,000, from 300,000 renminbi.

中信證券在週日晚宣佈對監管委員會裁決的迴應時表示，將採取一系列措施來降低其現有融資融券業務的風險，包括將客戶獲得此類融資所需的證券資產的最低值從30萬元人民幣提高到50萬元(約合8.1萬美元)。

“The company will seriously implement the corrective measures, fully review its existing business process and systems and rules, and conduct business in strict compliance with existing business rules,” Wang Dongming, the chairman of Citic Securities, said in the announcement. Shares in Citic Securities and Haitong Securities both fell by 16.5 percent in Hong Kong on Monday.

中信證券董事長王東明在宣佈中說，“公司將認真落實整改措施，全面檢討其現有業務流程、系統及規則，嚴格遵守現有規則開展業務。”中信和海通的股價週一在香港股市都下跌了16.5％。

While the regulatory commission’s move to let some steam out of the share market rally is probably a good thing, there are many risks to such a strategy, and they are compounded by the record amount of leverage that investors have taken on in recent weeks.

證監會給股市反彈降溫的行動雖然是件好事，但這種策略也有不少風險，投資者最近幾周的創紀錄槓桿投資進一步加劇了這些風險。

Outstanding margin financing had more than doubled in the last six months, recently exceeding 1 trillion renminbi. Frances Feng, an analyst at Credit Suisse, wrote Monday in a research not that margin financing has been accounting for around 18 percent of the average daily trading volume in China recently, more than double what it was a year ago.

尚未償還的用證券擔保的貸款額已在過去六個月裏翻了一番還多，最近已超過1萬億元人民幣。瑞士信貸的分析師弗朗西絲·馮(Frances Feng)在週一的一份研究簡報中寫道，中國股票市場最近日均交易量中，約有18%是利用這種借入資金的股票交易，比一年前的這類交易量翻了一番還多。

Before Monday’s market rout, the benchmark Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index had surged 38 percent in the last three months. But there were signs that the rally was increasingly precarious and losing momentum. Trading volume peaked on Dec. 9 when shares worth 77 billion renminbi, or about $12.5 billion, changed hands. The current five-day trading volume is less than a third of that level, at around 22 billion renminbi, signaling less active support for shares at their current levels.

在週一的市場拋盤發生之前，作爲基準的上海證券交易所綜合股票指數已在過去三個月裏上漲了38％。但有跡象表明，這次股票反彈越來越搖搖欲墜，正在失去動力。交易量已在12月9日達到峯值，當天的股票成交額達到770億元人民幣，相當於125億美元。目前的五天成交量低於峯值的三分之一，約在220億元人民幣上下，這是目前的股票價格沒有多少強勁支持的信號。

At the same time, the pace of new investors piling into the market has slowed. The number of new trading accounts opened on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges declined to 550,000 in the week that ended Jan. 9, down from a peak of nearly 900,000 the week that ended Dec. 12.

與此同時，新投資者涌入市場的步伐已經放慢。上海和深圳證券交易所的新開交易賬戶數量，在截至1月9日的那周已降至55萬，遠低於截至12月12日那周的近90萬的峯值。

The slowing momentum means the regulatory commission must act delicately as it seeks to prune the excesses of the rally. But the need to act is clear when weighed against the overall slowdown in China’s economy.

股市勢頭放緩意味着，監管機構在尋求控制反彈中的過激行爲時，必須謹慎行動。但相對於中國經濟增長總體放緩的考慮，需要採取行動是顯而易見的。

Figures to be released on Tuesday are expected to show that China’s economy expanded last year at the slowest pace in more than 20 years.

週二將公佈的數字預計會顯示，中國經濟去年增長的速度是20多年來最慢的。

“The stock market fever has made it difficult for the People’s Bank of China to further loosen monetary policy,” Daiwa’s Mr. Qi said. The securities regulator “is helping to cool the sentiment on stocks, with the aim that some of the incremental liquidity will go to the real economy.”

“股市發燒讓中國人民銀行進一步放鬆貨幣政策變難，”大和的齊曉亮說。證監會“是在幫助冷卻對股票的熱情，其目的是讓一些增加的流動性進入實體經濟。”