三筆債券發行取消未動搖投資者對亞洲信心

Three Asian bond sales pulled in a single day. In other economic cycles, it would be the sort of event that might help a reporter win a name for spotting early signals of far bigger trouble. But there are few signs the failures were a harbinger of something more serious.

三隻亞洲債券在同一天內取消發售。在其他經濟週期中，這一情形或許能幫助記者因觀察到更大問題的早期信號而出名。但是沒有多少跡象表明這些債券發售失敗是某個嚴重危機的預兆。

This week three junk-rated borrowers — Chinese, Indonesian and Indian — pulled bond offerings, unhappy at their borrowing costs. For any issuer to withdraw a deal after launch is extremely rare. Emerging market sovereign credit spreads — the basis off which companies price their bond sales deals have been edging higher for the past three months, too.

本週，三個被評爲垃圾級的借款方——分別來自中國、印度尼西亞和印度——因對其借款成本感到不滿而取消債券發行。任何一家發行方在債券發行啓動後取消是極爲罕見的。過去三個月新興市場主權信用利差——企業據之爲債券發行定價——也不斷走高。

Asian companies have also been borrowing record amounts this year in the dollar bond markets. Twenty years on from the Asian financial crisis, and ten since the western credit crunch that presaged the 2008 global financial crisis, that might augur badly, too.

亞洲企業今年在美元債券市場發債也創下紀錄。在亞洲金融危機爆發20年後，以及西方信貸危機——預示了2008年全球金融危機——發生10年後，這也可能預示着嚴重問題。

Yet that has not been the whole picture this week. Asia’s emerging equity markets, as measured by MSCI’s Asia ex-Japan index, have rallied to a 10-year high as companies such as Samsung Electronics produce record profits. So far this year, the index has gained 27 per cent. On Thursday, the region’s currencies jumped after investors judged policymakers at the Federal Reserve took a dovish stance on interest rates, pushing a broad measure of the dollar to a 14-month low.

不過這還不是本週的全部情況。根據MSCI亞洲（除日本外）指數，亞洲新興股票市場由於三星電子(Samsung Electronics)等公司盈利創歷史新高而達到10年來的高點。今年迄今爲止，該指數已經上漲了27%。週四，由於投資者認爲美聯儲(Fed)政策制定者對利率採取溫和態度，該地區貨幣整體走高，推動美元廣義指數降至14個月低點。

But this benign environment is making some nervous. After all, Asia began the year facing a strong dollar, a hawkish Federal Reserve and the fear that Donald Trump would impose the crushing trade tariffs he threatened throughout the presidential campaign.

但這個良性環境還是讓有些人感到緊張。畢竟，亞洲今年開頭就面臨着強勁的美元，鷹派的美聯儲，以及對唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)會推行在整個總統競選期間所威脅的破壞性貿易關稅的擔憂。

With that backdrop in mind, it can be hard for emerging market investors to believe their luck. Treasury yields seem effectively capped until the Fed sounds a more hawkish tone, while the dollar is far softer than most expected back in January. Commodity prices have picked up and profits are rising. Even China’s economy is doing better than expected.

在這樣的背景下，新興市場投資者很難相信自己的好運氣。國債收益率似乎有了實際的上限，除非美聯儲的論調更趨鷹派，而美元遠遠疲軟於1月份多數人的預期。大宗商品價格已回升，企業利潤也在不斷上漲。就連中國經濟也好於預期。

“Goldilocks or Cinderella?” asked the emerging market credit strategists at Citigroup this month, summing up the debate between those who believe in this “just right” backdrop and those who fear it is a mirage that will disappear without warning.

“是金髮姑娘（Goldilocks，比喻剛剛好——譯者注）還是灰姑娘？”本月花旗集團(Citigroup)新興市場信用策略師問道，以此作爲一場辯論的總結。辯論的一方相信當前環境“剛剛好”，另一方擔心這是場沒有預警就會消失的海市蜃樓。

Others take a much longer-term view. Economists at Standard Life this week unveiled what they say is a more rigorous model for gauging global business cycles — and concluded that the probability of recession in the world’s large economies in the next two years is low.

有些人目光長遠得多。標準人壽(Standard Life)的經濟學家本週公佈了他們聲稱更嚴格的衡量全球商業週期的模型——他們的結論是，未來兩年全球大型經濟體出現衰退的可能性較低。

It is a conclusion echoed by the Asia team at BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager.

這一結論得到了全球最大資產管理公司貝萊德(BlackRock)亞洲團隊的呼應。

“I think we’re in midcycle and that this is just a much longer and slower economic expansion,” says Belinda Boa, BlackRock’s head of active investments for Asia Pacific, who believes many of her clients are still being too cautious in their investment strategies. “We don’t see the risk of a recession immediately — we think the recession risk is rather in years than quarters.”

“我認爲我們處於週期的中期，這只是一次更長時間、更緩慢的經濟擴張，”貝萊德亞太區主動投資主管貝琳達?博阿(Belinda Boa)說。她認爲許多自己的客戶在投資策略上仍過於謹慎。“我們沒有看到迫在眉睫的衰退風險——我們認爲衰退風險的到來將以年計，而非以季度計。”

Other subscribers to the Goldilocks view point to emerging markets’ low inflation, and only moderate valuations. The MSCI Asia ex-Japan, for example, is trading on 14 times forecast profits. That is at the high end of its range for the past six years — a period during which profits have consistently disappointed — but far short of the 19 times earnings reached in 2007.

其他持“金髮姑娘”看法的人士指向了新興市場的低通脹，以及並不算高的估值。例如，MSCI亞洲（日本除外）指數的預期市盈率爲14倍。這處於過去6年（利潤一直令人失望的時期）區間的高點，但遠低於2007年達到的19倍。

The three failed bond deals caused little more than ripples in bond investing circles this week. Another junk-rated bond sale that successfully completed on that same day, traded higher on its debut, implying broader investor ease. Most have chalked the failures up to market indigestion following a series of very low-grade borrowers rushing to beat the impending summer lull.

本週這三筆失敗的債券發行在債券投資界僅引發了一點點漣漪效應。同一天成功完成的另一筆垃圾級債券發售，剛開始交易便走高，意味着投資者更普遍的放鬆情緒。多數人把這些失敗歸因於市場消化不良，因爲此前一系列非常低信用等級的借款人急於打破即將到來的夏季低迷期。

If it were all about to go wrong, then the lack of reaction to failed deals, as well as the common talk of a Goldilocks scenario, will be seen as examples of markets’ last hurrah. It is a decade since Citigroup’s then chief executive, Chuck Prince, famously told the Financial Times that if music was playing the bank was “still dancing” even as the credit crunch loomed — a crunch that would drag Asia with it.

如果最終出了問題，那麼現在對失敗交易無動於衷、以及普遍持“金髮姑娘”看法，屆時將被視爲市場最後歡呼的例子。十年前，花旗集團時任首席執行官查克?普林斯(Chuck Prince)曾對英國《金融時報》說了一句著名的話：如果音樂不停，該行“仍在跳舞”，即便信貸危機已經逼近——而這場危機將拖累整個亞洲。

Such anniversaries are a reminder why plenty of investors are struggling to believe in the fairytale outlook they see before them.

此類週年紀念提醒人們，爲什麼大量投資者不願相信自己面前童話般的前景。