亞洲不良資產吸引全球投資目光

A few months ago, US electronics maker Tyco put its ADT Korea unit up for auction. The bidding for Tyco Fire & Security Services Korea was fierce, with private equity investors and small Korean domestic funds combining with each other to muster enough caPital to make a credible offer. Domestic banks were also happy to provide bidders with record amounts of debt. That is why, when Carlyle won, it paid almost $2bn for a company with an operating income of around $125m.

幾個月前，美國電子產品製造商泰科(Tyco)將旗下韓國業務部門ADT Korea掛牌出售。對Tyco Fire & Security Services Korea的競購相當激烈，私人股本投資者和韓國國內小型基金紛紛聯合，以募集足夠多的資金，提出一份可信的報價。韓國國內銀行也很高興向競購者提供創紀錄的債務。這就是爲什麼最終競購成功的凱雷(Carlyle)花了近20億美元纔買下一家營運利潤約爲1.25億美元的公司。

“Everyone went nuts when this deal came along,” one bidder recalls. It helped that the last major deal in Korea was KKR’s purchase of Oriental Brewery five years ago – on which the private equity group made more than five times its money. ADT was also the biggest deal in Korea since 2008.

一位競購者回憶道：“當這筆交易出現時，大家都瘋了。”韓國上一次大規模收購交易是5年前KKR收購韓國東洋啤酒公司(Oriental Brewery)——KKR從這筆投資賺得5倍多的回報——這也助長了各方的收購熱情。ADT交易也是韓國自2008年以來規模最大的一筆交易。

A few days ago, KKR also bought a stake in Koreit, a Korean company that provides services for real estate developers, from a distressed seller. But, in contrast to the frenzy around ADT, this was a smaller deal that attracted far less attention and competition. And while Korean banks were happy to provide debt for ADT, they appear to have very little appetite for real estate these days.

幾天前，KKR還從一家陷入困境的賣家手中，購入了爲房地產開發商提供服務的韓國企業Koreit的部分股權。但相對於圍繞ADT的熱潮，那筆交易規模較小，吸引的關注和競爭也少得多。而且，儘管韓國各銀行樂意爲ADT提供債務，但如今它們似乎對房地產沒什麼興趣。

The market for distressed assets in Korea and many other Asian countries is not deep. But investors such as the special situations arm of KKR are gearing up for what many expect to be more widespread opportunities across Asia as both the level and the cost of debt rises.

韓國以及其他很多亞洲國家的不良資產市場深度不大。但隨着債務規模和成本上升，KKR旗下特殊情況基金等投資者正準備在亞洲迎接很多人預期出現的更爲普遍的機遇。

“In contrasting developments, leverage in developed markets has come down since the 2008 crisis, while in emerging markets particularly in Asia, it has risen significantly,” wrote economists from JPMorgan in a recent note. “EM Asia’s stock of debt stood at $9.5tn in 4Q08, and rose to over $21tn by end-2013. Total debt increased from 90 per cent of GDP in 4Q08 to nearly 120 per cent of GDP. EM Asia’s foreign liabilities are now a higher share of exports (nearly 50 per cent) than at any time in the past 10 years.”

“形成對比的是，自2008年危機爆發以來，發達市場的槓桿率有所下滑，而新興市場（特別是在亞洲）的槓桿率大幅上升，”摩根大通(JPMorgan)經濟學家在最近的一份報告中寫道，“2008年第四季度，亞洲新興市場的債務存量爲9.5萬億美元，到2013年底升至逾21萬億美元。總債務與GDP的比率從2008年第四季度的90%升至近120%。亞洲新興市場的外國負債佔出口的比例（近50%）如今處於過去10年來最高水平。”

In Korea, the distress is now centred on construction, real estate and troubled shipping companies, such as Hanjin Shipping. But it may well spread to more industrial companies – just as distress in Japan is beginning to spread from real estate to industrial companies.

在韓國，不良債務集中在建築、房地產和陷入困境的航運公司，例如韓進海運(Hanjin Shipping)。但這很有可能會蔓延至更多工業企業，正如日本的不良債務正從房地產蔓延至工業企業那樣。

Moreover, Korea is – along with China – the primary victim of the depreciation of the Japanese yen. Its private sector is heavily indebted, while its markets in the emerging world face a possible weakening in demand.

另外，韓國（還有中國）是日元貶值的主要受害者。韓國私營部門負債嚴重，而其在新興世界的出口市場可能面臨需求放緩。

In India, by contrast, the need for foreign capital can only grow. The initial euphoria over the Modi regime has been replaced by a more sober assessment of economic realities. Promoters of deals in the power industry and other infrastructure-related sectors who, just weeks ago, told potential overseas investors that their money was no longer needed are now coming back to the table. New regulations from the Reserve Bank of India require bidders for distressed assets to put more capital up – which will also create opportunities for foreign players.

相比之下，在印度，對外資的需求只會增長。人們對默迪(Modi)政府最初的樂觀情緒，已被對經濟現實更爲冷靜的評估所取代。電力行業和其他基礎設施相關行業併購交易的推動者們，正重新回到談判桌上，而就在幾周前，他們還告訴潛在的海外投資者，印度不再需要他們的錢了。印度央行(Reserve Bank of India)的新規要求競購不良資產的實體拿出更多資本，這也將爲外國競爭者創造機會。

And then there is China. By the standards of the rest of the world, the speed with which credit has been extended in China has left many analysts convinced that there will be a financial crisis on the mainland. But not everyone is certain that this will prove the case.

還有就是中國。根據全球其他國家的標準，中國發放信貸的速度讓很多分析師確信，中國將爆發一場金融危機。但並非所有人都認爲真會如此。

Warburg Pincus, the private equity firm, was part of a group that recently took a stake in China Huarong Asset Management for $2.4bn. Huarong was established 15 years ago to take over the troubled loans of Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, before China’s biggest bank went public. Huarong itself is expected to soon go public – the second of the big asset managers to do so.

美國私人股本基金華平(Warburg Pincus)最近聯手其他公司，以24億美元購入中國華融資產管理公司(China Huarong Asset Management)部分股權。華融成立於15年前，任務是在中國最大銀行工行(ICBC)上市之前接管其不良貸款。預計華融不久後也將上市，將成爲中國第二個上市的大型資產管理公司。

Most investors consider these asset management companies as a way to play distressed debt in China, since their portfolios contain loans to the most troubled sectors in China where over capacity is most dire: including cement, glass, and steel. And part of the capital Huarong raises is likely to help restructure the debts of such borrowers.

多數投資者將這些資產管理公司視爲投資中國不良債務的一個途徑，因爲它們的債權組合包括向中國陷入最嚴重困境的行業（包括水泥、玻璃和鋼鐵）發放的貸款。華融籌集的部分資本可能被用來幫助重組這些借款者的債務。

But executives at Warburg prefer to see Huarong as a proxy for China itself – a government-backed firm that will be the beneficiary of the country’s eventual shift from being an exporter with a voracious appetite for commodities to a less commodity intensive, domestic-led economy.

然而，華平高管更願意將華融視爲投資中國本身的途徑：中國最終將從一個對大宗商品需求極其旺盛的出口國，變成一個不那麼依賴大宗商品、由國內拉動的經濟體，這家政府支持的公司將從中受益。

That shift may not be good for the countries such as Indonesia that previously prospered from Chinese demand. But it means the opportunities for investing in distressed companies will only grow elsewhere in the region.

對於此前依靠中國需求實現繁榮的印尼等國而言，這種轉變可能不是一件好事。但這意味着，在亞洲其他地區，投資陷入困境的企業的機會只會增多。