資本管制收效 中國外儲降速減緩

Measures taken by Beijing to stem capital flight proved partially effective in December as China’s foreign exchange reserves continued to fall but at a slower pace than in previous months.

北京採取的遏止資本外逃的措施在12月被證明部分有效，中國的外匯儲備繼續下降，但速度比前幾個月有所放慢。

The central bank announced a lower than expected drop in foreign exchange reserves for last month, which fell by $41bn to $3.01tn. A Reuters poll of analysts predicted a $51bn fall for the month after reserves came down by $70bn in November.

中國央行宣佈了低於預期的外匯儲備下降，上月下降410億美元，至3.01萬億美元。此前路透(Reuters)對分析師的調查預測，12月中國外匯儲備將下降510億美元。11月中國外儲下降了700億美元。

The People’s Bank of China has been anxious to slow the depreciation of the renminbi, which fell 6.6 per cent last year against the dollar. But simply selling off dollars to defend the currency has been expensive — reserves in 2016 fell from $3.3tn to just above $3tn.

中國人民銀行(PBoC)近來急於減緩人民幣貶值；去年人民幣兌美元匯率下跌6.6%。但是，用拋售美元來捍衛人民幣匯率的做法迄今代價高昂；2016年期間，中國外匯儲備從3.3萬億美元下降至略高於3萬億美元。

With an eye on saving reserves, monetary authorities deployed a series of new capital controls at the end of 2016 designed to slow capital outflows.

爲節省儲備起見，中國貨幣當局在2016年底出臺一系列新的資本管制措施，力求減緩資本外流。

The reserve data came as investors debate the renminbi’s likely direction after a surprise two-day surge wrongfooted China bears betting on further depreciation. Last week the offshore renminbi jumped 2.6 per cent in two days — its biggest-ever two day gain against the dollar since it was introduced in 2010 — while the onshore rate reached its highest level in more than a month.

最新外儲數據出爐之際，投資者正在辯論人民幣的可能走向，此前人民幣出現令人意外的兩天漲勢，令看跌中國、押注人民幣進一步貶值的人士措手不及。上週，離岸人民幣匯率在兩天裏上漲2.6%（這是自2010年推出人民幣離岸匯率以來其相對於美元的最大兩日漲幅），而在岸匯率達到一個多月來最高水平。

The continued capital outflow heightens the possibility that Beijing will either increase measures to keep cash in the country, such as cracking down on personal exchange limits, or make a one-off devaluation to relieve pressure on the currency.

持續的資本外流加大了兩種可能性：一是北京方面將增加把現金留在國內的措施，比如收緊個人購匯限制；二是進行一次性貶值，以減輕人民幣所受的壓力。

HSBC estimated that the cental bank sold off about $26bn in December in its continued struggle to prop up the flagging renminbi, while $15bn of the drop in the value of reserves was due to a rising dollar. That was lower than in November when $35bn of the decline was due to intervention by the central bank.

匯豐(HSBC)估計，12月中國央行出售了約260億美元以延續其支撐疲弱的人民幣的努力，而外儲下降中的另外150億美元是由於美元走高。這個美元出售數字低於11月，該月有350億美元的外儲下降是由於中國央行售出美元以干預匯率。

The smaller fall in reserves nonetheless showed that pressure on the renminbi continues, as many Chinese people seek to get money out of the country.

然而，中國外儲的較小幅度下降仍表明，隨着許多中國人試圖將資金轉移至境外，人民幣仍繼續受到壓力。

“The regulatory framework has been tightening, thereby taking the pressure off just deploying FX reserves. This means that FX reserves will probably continue to decline but at a slower pace,” said Paul Mackel, head of emerging markets forex research at HSBC in Hong Kong.

“監管框架最近在收緊，從而減輕了消耗外匯儲備的壓力。這意味着外匯儲備很可能繼續下降，但速度會放慢，”匯豐新興市場外匯研究主管保羅?麥凱爾(Paul Mackel)在香港表示。

Beijing began to impose new capital controls in November, including strict limits on large corporate investments abroad, in an effort to close off an avenue widely used to get money out of China.

北京方面從去年11月開始實施新的資本管制，包括對中資企業在境外進行的大筆投資實行嚴格限制，以求封堵一條被廣泛用於轉移資金至境外的渠道。

“China’s FX policy has become increasingly defensive in stabilising [renminbi] depreciation pressures over recent months,” said Mr Mackel.

“中國的外匯政策在最近幾個月越來越趨向於守勢，目的是穩住（人民幣）貶值壓力，”麥凱爾表示。

The controls have made life complicated for many multinational companies — even routine business operations such as paying dividends abroad have been subject to delays and new scrutiny, according to a report by the EU’s Chamber of Commerce in China last month.

這些控制措施使許多跨國公司的日子變得複雜——根據根據中國歐盟商會(European Chamber of Commerce in China)上月發表的一份報告，就連例行業務操作，比如向境外支付股息，也受到延誤和新的審查。

The capital controls also present risks for Chinese companies that helped the renminbi appreciate by borrowing dollars and converting them into the currency, according to Kevin Lai, chief Asia ex-Japan economist at Daiwa Capital Markets.

大和資本市場(Daiwa Capital Markets)的日本以外亞洲首席經濟學家賴志文(Kevin Lai)表示，這些資本管制也對之前借入美元資金並將其兌換爲人民幣、從而推高人民幣的中國企業構成風險。

The renminbi appreciated by about 37 per cent over a period of nine and a half years before it began to fall in value against the dollar as companies bought the currency.

人民幣曾在9年半時間裏升值約37%，但隨後就在企業買入人民幣之際，這種貨幣相對於美元的匯率開始下跌。

“These borrowers must be under real pressure now to get out,” Mr Lai wrote in a report. “If they cannot do so because of more capital controls, what will happen to the banks they borrowed the dollars from?”

“這些借款人現在肯定受到擺脫困境的極大壓力，”賴志文在一份報告中寫道，“如果他們由於資本管制加強而無法脫手美元債務，貸給他們美元資金的銀行會發生什麼？”