周小川 要區分資本外流和資本外逃

China’s central bank governor downplayed concerns over China’s falling foreign reserves and said he saw no basis for continuing depreciation in the renminbi — comments that could calm mainland markets when they reopen on Monday after a week-long hiatus that saw upheaval in global markets.

中國央行行長周小川淡化了人們對中國外匯儲備下降的擔憂，稱他認爲人民幣不存在持續貶值的基礎。這番言論可能會在下週一中國內地市場重新開盤時對市場情緒起到安撫作用。中國內地市場已休市一週，其間全球市場出現了大幅震盪。

In an interview published over the weekend in CaiXin, the mainland financial magazine, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China, chose a critical moment to speak up to clarify Beijing’s exchange rate strategy, local analysts said.

中國當地的分析師表示，周小川選擇了一個關鍵時點發聲澄清中國政府的匯率戰略。中國內地財經雜誌《財新週刊》(Caixin)週末發表了對周小川的專訪。

All eyes will be on mainland markets when they reopen on Monday, watching for dramatic fluctuations in response to a volatile week in world markets.

下週一中國內地市場重新開盤之際，所有人的目光都將落在它們身上，看全球市場過去一週的動盪是否會引發它們的大幅波動。

In the interview, Mr Zhou dismissed speculation that Beijing would tighten capital controls. “It is normal for foreign reserves to rise and fall as long as the fundamentals face no problems,” he said. “At the moment the level of cross border capital flows is within the normal region,” he said, adding: “We need to differentiate between capital outflow and capital flight.”

在上述專訪中，周小川否認了關於中國政府將加強資本管制的猜測。他說：“只要基本面沒有問題，（外匯儲備的）增增減減本身都是正常的。”他表示：“當前……跨境資本流動處於正常區間。”他還說：“需要區分資本外流和資本外逃兩個概念。”

Surging capital outflows from China have become a source of growing global concern and have left Beijing scrambling to support the currency. During January’s market turmoil in China, some $113bn was sent out of the country in the first month of the year alone, according to estimates from the Institute for International Finance. Recently released data showed that foreign reserves fell to their lowest level in almost four years in January.

中國資本外流激增已成爲全球日益加劇的擔憂的一大致因，同時也使得中國政府急於支撐人民幣匯率。國際金融協會(Institute of International Finance)的估計數字顯示，僅在今年1月這一個月裏，就有大約1130億美元資金流出中國。最近公佈的數字則顯示，今年1月中國外儲規模滑落至將近四年來的最低水平。

Mr Zhou stressed that Beijing’s strategy did not include further devaluations to boost exports. “The total trade surplus in 2015 was close to $600bn and net export’s contribution to gdp was not low so there’s no motive to depreciate the renminbi for the sake of net export expansion,” he told Caixin. He condemned “speculators” for targeting the renminbi, adding that “China will not let market sentiment be dominated by these speculative forces”.

周小川強調，中國政府的戰略並不包括通過進一步貶值來擴大出口。他向《財新週刊》表示：“2015年貨物貿易順差已接近6000億美元，淨出口對GDP的貢獻率已經不低，因此不存在爲擴大淨出口而貶值的動機。”他譴責“投機者”把人民幣當作攻擊目標，並補充稱“我們不會讓投機力量主導市場情緒”。

Mr Zhou reiterated that “the trend is to rely further on the market to decide the level of the currency and to achieve a more flexible foreign exchange rate”. “The bank will use a basket of currencies as a reference and appropriately manage any daily volatility in the renminbi against the dollar as well as using a wider range of economic data,” he said, adding that there “is no basis for devaluation”.

周小川重申，“方向是更加依靠市場力量決定價格，實現更有靈活性的匯率”。他說：“操作上以穩定一籃子匯率爲主要目標，同時適當管理單日內人民幣對美元匯率波動的幅度。未來還會引入宏觀經濟數據對匯率發生作用的機制。”他還表示，“不存在持續貶值的基礎”。

Mr Zhou also defended the bank against accusations that Beijing lacked transparency in its management of the economy. “The central bank is neither a god nor a magician, there is no way that we can wipe out all uncertainties”. “Sometimes, the central bank has to say, ‘Sorry, we have to wait for new data’.”

針對有些人指責中國政府在管理經濟方面缺乏透明度，周小川爲中國央行做了辯護：“央行既不是上帝，也不是魔術師，不可能把不確定性問題都抹掉。所以央行有時要說：‘對不起，我們要等待新數據的輸入’。”