沉浮於信貸刺激的洪流 中國企業借新債償舊債

China is awash in a credit stimulus that is bigger as a proportion of GDP than the one that Beijing unleashed to haul the economy out of trouble in the aftermath of the 2008/2009 financial crisis.

中國目前正沉浮於信貸刺激的洪流中，從相對於國內生產總值(GDP)的比例來看，這輪刺激比北京方面爲拉動經濟在2008/09金融危機後走出困境而釋放的信貸規模更大。

But this time around, the deluge is failing to boost growth in an economy already saturated with liquidity, a new statistical study shows.

但是，一份新的統計研究顯示，這一次，信貸洪流正在喪失對已經充滿流動性的經濟的刺激作用。

The world’s second-largest economy is currently using four units of credit to generate a single unit of GDP growth (see chart), according to data research by Brandon Emmerich, general manager for North America at Wind Information, a data provider.

數據供應商萬得資訊(Wind Information)北美部總經理布蘭登•埃默裏赫(Brandon Emmerich)所做的數據研究顯示，這個全球第二大經濟體目前正在用4個單位的信貸產生1個單位的GDP增長（見圖1）。

The ratio of four to one — as measured by comparing total social financing (TSF) to nominal GDP on a quarterly basis — signifies that the debt efficiency of the Chinese economy is at its lowest point since early 2009.

4:1的比率——以每季度社會融資總量(TSF)與名義GDP增量之比來衡量——意味着中國經濟的債務效率正處於自2009年初以來的最低水平。

At that time, a sharp external shock clobbered the GDP growth rate, prompting Beijing to open the credit taps to resuscitate economic activity.

2009年初，劇烈的外部衝擊重創了GDP增長率，促使北京方面開啓信貸閘門以恢復經濟活動。

But while the economy responded smartly to the 2009 stimulus, this year it appears almost impervious to the extra spoonfuls of sugar.

儘管中國經濟漂亮地迴應了2009年的信貸刺激，但是今年它似乎對額外的甜頭毫無反應。

China expanded total domestic credit by Rmb12tn ($1.84tn), or 34 per cent of gross domestic product, in the year to November 2009 — significantly less than the Rmb27.9tn, or 40 per cent of GDP, in the year to February this year, according to Bernstein Research.

伯恩斯坦研究公司(Bernstein Research)的數據顯示，在截至2009年11月的一年中，中國國內信貸總量擴大了12萬億元人民幣（合1.84萬億美元），相當於GDP的34%，而在截至今年2月的一年中，信貸增量爲27.9萬億元人民幣，相當於GDP的40%，前者大大低於後者。

The difference in impact is clear in headline numbers. In 2009, GDP growth accelerated from 6.1 per cent in the first quarter to a full year rate of 9.2 per cent, but the year to February this year has been accompanied by a steady decline in headline growth.

信貸增量在影響上的差異明顯體現在總體數據上。2009年，GDP增速從第一季度的6.1%提升至全年的9.2%，但是在截至今年2月的一年中，總體增長率穩步下滑。

There appear to be several reasons behind the dwindling debt efficiency. Overcapacity and oversupply in several key traditional sectors, including steel, cement, copper, aluminium, metal ore mining, building materials and offline retail, has rendered these sectors unresponsive to credit infusions because they do not need to expand capacity or production.

債務效率降低的背後似乎有多種原因。多個關鍵的傳統行業——包括鋼鐵、水泥、銅、鋁、金屬礦石開採、建築材料和線下零售——產能過剩、供大於求，造成這些行業對新注入的信貸沒有反應，因爲這些行業不需要擴大產能或提高產量。

Thus much of the new financing is not going into investment, but is rather being used to repay debts built up since the 2009/2010 stimulus.

因此，很多新融資都沒有用於投資，而是用於償還自2009/10年信貸刺激以來逐漸累積的債務。

There are no official figures on how much new debt is being issued merely to repay existing borrowings, but Mr Emmerich has calculated from some 6,800 corporate bond prospectuses issued since 2010 that the proportion is growing fast.

目前沒有官方數據統計有多少新發行的債券只是用於償還現有借款，但是埃默裏赫從2010年以來發行的大約6800只企業債券的發行說明書中計算髮現，這一比例正在迅速上升。

Of the total corporate bonds issued in 2015, issuers noted in some 44 per cent of prospectus that at least some of the proceeds would go to repay outstanding debts, up from 8 per cent of all bonds issued in 2014. In 2016 year to date, the proportion has remained high, at 42 per cent, as the second chart shows.

在2015年發行的全部企業債券中，發行人在大約44%的發行說明書中指出，至少部分融資將用於償還未償債務，較2014年8%的比例大幅上升。2016年迄今爲止，這一比例仍然高居42%，如圖2所示。

It was not possible to calculate how much of total proceeds were being used for repayments because the bond prospectuses only listed multiple uses without giving a breakdown on how funds would be apportioned. Nevertheless, the chart above shows an obvious surge in issuance for repayment purposes.

由於債券發行說明書只列出多項用途、而不對資金如何分配給出明細，因此無法計算究竟有多少融資被用於償還債務。儘管如此，圖2表明以償債爲目的的債券發行明顯增加。

The rationale behind these repayments is clear. Six cuts in China’s interest rates since November 2014 have boosted incentives for financial restructuring by replacing higher yielding debt with bonds that have significantly lower coupon rates. This activity appears set to help to shore up strained balance sheets to some extent in a corporate sector that has piled up debts equivalent to 160 per cent of GDP — one of the highest levels in the world.

這些償債行爲背後的原因很明顯。自2014年11月以來的6次降息，增加了企業對自身債務進行重組的動機，以票面利率明顯較低的債券替換利率較高的債務。這種做法在某種程度上似乎將有助於支撐企業部門捉襟見肘的資產負債表。中國企業部門積累的債務已相當於GDP的160%，居於世界最高水平之列。

As returns on investment in the real economy remain under pressure, companies are finding far fewer attractive projects in the mainstay construction sector. Around 75 per cent of debt issued by corporations from 2010 to 2014 went towards construction project investments, but so far this year, the proportion was a mere 33 per cent, Mr Emmerich said.

由於實體經濟的投資回報仍然承受壓力，企業在作爲經濟支柱的建築業發現的具有吸引力的項目大大減少。埃默裏赫稱，2010年至2014年間企業發行的債券中約有75%的資金流入建築項目投資，但是今年以來，這一比例僅爲33%。

The same trend of prioritising debt repayment over investment is also evident in the municipal bond market, which was set up in 2014 to allow Chinese local governments to directly issue bonds.

所籌資金優先用於償還債務、而非投資的趨勢在地方政府債券市場也很明顯。該市場於2014年建立，允許中國地方政府直接發行債券。

Of an estimated Rmb14.3tn in local government debt issued since the beginning of 2015, little has gone into investment projects, Mr Emmerich said.

埃默裏赫稱，自2015年初以來發行的估計14.3萬億元人民幣的地方政府債券中，只有非常少的資金流入投資項目。

Only 2.5 per cent of “muni” bonds issued were exclusively to generate funds for investment projects (see chart). A “mix” category, in which proceeds went both toward investment and to repaying debts, accounted for 41 per cent, according to Wind Information calculations. Funds raised through the issuance of 55.7 per cent of bonds went exclusively to repay existing debts of various sorts, the Wind data show.

僅有2.5%的“市政”債券專門用於爲投資項目籌集資金（見圖4）。據萬得資訊計算，“混合”類債券（資金既用於投資、也用於償還債務）總計佔比41%。萬得的數據顯示，55.7%債券發行籌集的資金專門用於償還各種各樣的現有債務。