英國應爲加息做好準備 Rates cannot stay at rock bottom for much longer

The quiet period for Britain’s monetary policy is drawing to an end. Over the next few months, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will again need to pay more than lip service to the idea it should increase the cost of borrowing.

英國貨幣政策的平靜期正走向尾聲。未來幾個月，在加息問題上，英國央行(BOE)貨幣政策委員會將再次需要採取實際行動，而不只是嘴上說說而已。

Respected organisations such as the National Institute of Economic and Social Research expect the first quarter-point interest rate rise from 0.5 per cent in February. The balance on the MPC is more fluid than many people realise.

英國國家經濟社會研究院(National Institute of Economic and Social Research)等一些受尊敬的組織預測，明年2月英國央行將把利率從0.5%首次上調25個基點。英國央行貨幣政策委員會的總體立場要比很多人以爲的更不穩定。

Only one member, Ian McCafferty, is currently voting for tighter policy. But other external members have said they are close to switching sides. Were governor Mark Carney to join in, there is a strong chance a majority supporting a rise would be automatic. Two of his voting deputies, Sir Jon Cunliffe and Minouche Shafik, have shown no desire to have any public views on interest rates, let alone display any thinking independent of the governor’s.

目前只有一名委員伊恩麥卡弗蒂(Ian McCafferty)投票支持加息。但其他外部委員表示，他們很快就可能改變主意。如果英國央行行長馬克慍尼(Mark Carney，上圖)加入他們這個陣營的話，就有很大可能自動形成多數人支持加息的局面。兩位副行長喬恩丠裏夫爵士(Sir Jon Cunliffe)和米諾切夏弗克(Minouche Shafik)無意就利率發表公開看法，更別說提出任何有別於卡尼的獨立看法了。

With unemployment having fallen to 5.4 per cent and regular private sector pay growing more than 3 per cent, the standard policy question is framed incorrectly. Rather than ask when interest rates should rise, we should wonder why they are still at rock bottom.

英國失業率已降至5.4%，私營部門固定工資增長逾3%，在這種情況下，我們提出的政策問題錯了。我們應該問利率爲何仍處於谷底，而不是應何時加息。

Some arguments for keeping interest rates at 0.5 per cent can be quickly dismissed. Current low levels of inflation — prices fell 0.1 per cent in the year to September — mainly reflect the falling prices of oil, food, other commodities and imports. But these prices will not keep falling forever. Just as high inflation in 2011 proved no bar to a timely expansion of quantitative easing, low inflation today should not stand in the way of monetary policy normalisation.

一些支持將利率維持在0.5%的理由很容易被駁倒。當前的低通脹（截至9月的一年，物價下跌0.1%）主要反映出石油、食品、其他大宗商品以及進口品價格下跌。但這些價格不會一直下跌。2011年的高通脹沒有阻礙量化寬鬆的及時擴大，同樣的，如今的低通脹也不應阻礙貨幣政策的正常化。

A slowdown in growth to 0.5 per cent should also cause the MPC little concern; the economy is still expanding fast enough to cut unemployment rapidly and raise employment to a new record. Concerns that a rate rise might be followed by a cut if conditions deteriorate should not remotely be considered suitable grounds for delaying a rate rise. Central bankers who prioritise avoiding short-term embarrassment over the UK economic interest have no place on policymaking committees. These suggestions are laughable.

經濟增速放緩至0.5%也不應引起英國央行貨幣政策委員會的擔憂；英國經濟的擴張速度足以快速降低失業率，使就業提升至歷史新高。有人擔心加息之後如果情況惡化，可能需要緊跟着降息，這種擔憂絲毫不應被視爲推遲加息的合適藉口。把避免短期窘境排在英國經濟利益之前的央行官員是不適合在政策制定委員會任職的。這些看法很可笑。

By contrast, the MPC needs to take seriously the view of its chief economist Andy Haldane that interest rates even at 0.5 per cent are providing little economic stimulus. If that were true, monetary policy would in effect already have tightened, without anyone pulling a policy lever. But the evidence — 8 per cent annual growth of unsecured credit; rampant increases in consumer spending — suggests interest rates at 0.5 per cent are still remarkably effective in encouraging borrowing and spending.

相比之下，英國央行貨幣政策委員會需要認真考慮其首席經濟學家安迪哈德恩(Andy Haldane)的觀點，他認爲，即便利率處於0.5%也幾乎無法帶來任何經濟刺激。如果確實如此，那麼貨幣政策實際上應該已在沒有動用任何政策工具的情況下收緊了。但證據（無擔保信貸每年增長8%；消費支出大幅擴張）表明，利率在0.5%仍顯著有效地鼓勵了借貸和支出。

There are many weak arguments for avoiding higher interest rates. Still, the BoE should be cautious about action in the near future. When ribbed that the bank cannot move until the Federal Reserve makes up its mind on interest rates, Mr Carney protests and protests too much that UK monetary policy is fully independent of the US. The MPC should be concerned that a rise before the Fed risks attracting huge capital inflows to Britain, pushing sterling up too far and killing the recovery. Britain might be an island, but its economy is not independent of the actions of others.

避免加息的很多理由都不具說服力。不過，英國央行對於在近期採取行動應當保持謹慎。外界嘲笑說，在美聯儲(Fed)做出利率決定前英國央行不可能採取行動，對此卡尼多次反駁說英國的貨幣政策完全獨立於美國。英國央行貨幣政策委員會應擔心，在美聯儲之前加息可能會吸引大量資金流入英國，令英鎊匯率過度上漲並扼殺經濟復甦。英國雖然是個島，但英國經濟無法不受其他國家行動的影響。

For now, there is also little risk in keeping rates on hold, whereas the consequences of the first rate rise after eight long years are much less certain. Powerful at present, this argument cannot be used in perpetuity; it would always prevent action, guaranteeing an eventual monetary policy mistake.

就眼下來說，讓利率保持不變的風險也很小，而在長達8年後首次加息的後果卻不確定得多。儘管目前來看這種觀點具有很強的說服力，但不可能一直如此；這種觀點總會阻礙行動，最終犯下貨幣政策錯誤。