緬甸力爭留住外國投資者 Myanmar vies to retain investor allure as Golden Land glow fades
Foreign investment flows to Myanmar have tailed off since a mini-boom just before the military junta stood aside, as cooler relations with China, a tricky business environment and persistent sanctions drag on this new commercial frontier.
自緬甸軍政府交權前出現的短暫繁榮期以來，由於對華關係轉冷、複雜的營商環境及該國受到的持續制裁拖累了這一塊新的商業地帶，流向緬甸的外國投資已日漸減少。
While overseas commercial interest is more consistent and diverse than before the March 2011 transition, a plunge in Chinese investment has not yet been fully matched by the emergence of Singapore as a gateway to a state at Asia’s strategic crossroads.
比起2011年3月政權移交前，如今外商對緬甸的商業興趣更加穩定而多元化。儘管如此，對於這個處於亞洲戰略十字路口的國家，中國投資的大幅減少還沒有從新加坡日漸扮演的門戶角色中得到充分補償。
On the eve of Sunday’s historic general election, the country’s business story is partly one of tempered ambitions — but also of dealmaking that does not necessarily show up in official figures.
在本週日的歷史性大選前夕，緬甸的商業故事在一定程度上是一個雄心壯志被壓抑的故事，不過，這個故事也是一個達成交易的故事，儘管這些交易未必顯示在官方數據中。
“We are at the point where a lot of people are very negative on Myanmar,” said Romain Caillaud, a senior director at FTI Consulting who focuses on the country. “But some people might have had bloated expectations — and Myanmar hasn’t fared so badly.”
以緬甸爲主要研究對象的富事高商務諮詢(FTI Consulting)高級主管羅曼慍約(Romain Caillaud)表示：“目前，許多人對緬甸持極爲負面的看法。不過，部分人此前也許已提高了對緬甸的期望，緬甸的表現也沒有那麼糟。”
Total foreign direct investment reached just over $19bn in the four years after the quasi-civilian government led by Thein Sein, the president, took power in March 2011 — less than the $20bn tallied in the last 12 months of the previous regime, according to official figures.
根據官方發佈的數據，2011年3月緬甸總統登盛(Thein Sein)領導的準平民政府掌權後的四年，緬甸外商直接投資(FDI)總額達到190億美元多一點，低於此前政權最後12個月錄得的200億美元。
Mainland China and Hong Kong accounted for more than 70 per cent of that pre-transition bonanza. But that share has fallen to less than 15 per cent in the years since the Myanmar government made its unexpected — and still reverberating — decision in late 2011 to suspend work on the Beijing-backed Myitsone dam.
緬甸在政權移交前所獲的大規模投資中，來自中國內地和香港的投資佔了70%以上。不過，2011年底緬甸政府出人意料地決定（這一決定至今影響猶存）叫停中國政府投資的密鬆水電站的建設。自那以後，中國內地和香港所佔投資份額已下滑至不到15%。
Despite the China fall-off, however, total annual foreign direct investment flows into the country are now in the billions rather than the sub-billion trickles that preceded the 2010-11 rush to get deals signed off before the political handover. Singapore has become an entry point, accounting for more than half the foreign investment both last year and the half-year to date, as companies are drawn to the combination of privacy and the rule of law the city-state offers.
然而，儘管來自中國的投資減少了，但目前每年流向緬甸的外商直接投資總額達數十億美元，而不是像2010年至2011年那場投資狂潮之前那樣，只有不到10億美元。（2010-11年的投資狂潮，是由於各方想趕在政權移交前簽署協議而導致的。）由於企業紛紛被新加坡對隱私的保護和它的法治吸引到那裏，新加坡如今已成爲緬甸的一個入口，不論是去年、還是今年到目前爲止的這大半年，新加坡都佔到緬甸外商投資的一半以上。
Official data do not capture other important trends such as Japan’s rising commercial interest, backed by the country’s development agency muscle. Dozens of companies have signed up for the new Tokyo-backed Thilawa special economic zone south-east of Yangon, including car parts makers and garment manufacturers.
官方數據並未體現出其他一些重要的趨勢，比如日本企業在該國開發機構資金支持下不斷增長的商業興趣。數十家企業已同意入駐新成立的迪拉瓦經濟特區，其中包括汽車部件製造商和服裝生產商。這一位於仰光東南面的經濟特區得到了日本政府的投資。
The official numbers also fail to reflect deals done by western companies other than those with a big physical presence — which are dominated by consumer industries businesses such as BAT, Coca-Cola and Heineken.
此外，官方數據還未能反映出那些沒有在當地大規模建廠的西方企業完成的交易。那些在當地大規模建廠的西方企業以英美菸草集團(BAT)、可口可樂(Coca-Cola)和喜力(Heineken)等消費品企業爲主。
Retailers such as Gap and H&M are now sourcing from Myanmar, while AviaSolutions, a UK-based advisory firm, has worked on the relaunch of the country’s national airline and the opening of its first international routes.
Gap和H&M等零售商眼下從緬甸採購，總部位於英國的諮詢公司阿維亞解決方案集團(AviaSolutions)也已着手重新啓動緬甸的國家航空公司，並開啓緬甸首批國際航線。
But some big obstacles to operating in Myanmar persist, including legal uncertainties, soaring property prices in Yangon and a lack of infrastructure, skilled workers and reliable power supplies. Several institutions and individuals in Myanmar remain under junta-era US sanctions, some with business interests stretching awkwardly wide, from mining to hotels.
不過，在緬甸開展業務的部分巨大障礙依然存在，其中包括法律上的不確定性、仰光飆升的房價、基礎設施不足、熟練工人短缺以及缺乏可靠的電力供應。緬甸多家機構和一些個人依然受制於美國在緬甸軍政府時期對其實施的制裁，棘手的是，其中部分機構和個人的商業利益涉及面極廣，從採礦到酒店無所不包。
Some investors who piled in too quickly around the time of the 2011 transition ended up getting burnt because they “believed the froth about the Golden Land” — a name commonly used to promote Myanmar — said one person who follows business in the country closely. Myanmar has also suffered lately from growing global bearishness about emerging markets — although it did conclude its energy field licensing just before the global oil price plunged last year.
一名密切關注緬甸商業活動的人士表示，因爲“相信了關於這片‘金色大地’（這個詞常常被用來宣傳緬甸）的空談”，一些投資者在2011年緬甸政權交接期過於迅速地投資了緬甸，結果被搞得焦頭爛額。此外，全球對新興市場不斷加深的看空，最近也對緬甸產生了不利影響——儘管緬甸在去年全球油價暴跌前已完成了油氣田開發牌照的頒發。
Thura Soe-Paing, entrepreneur and a director of private equity firm Golden Rock Capital, said the business climate had improved significantly since he returned to the country in October 2010. Upgrades in mobile communications meant services now and then were “night and day”, although access to finance remained a huge problem and many bills still had to be paid in cash.
私募股權公司Golden Rock Capital的董事、企業家Thura Soe-Paing表示，自2010年10月他重返緬甸以來，緬甸的營商環境已大有改善。移動通信的升級意味着服務今非昔比，儘管金融服務仍是個大問題，許多賬單也仍需以現金支付。
“If I had to give it all a grade, I would give it a B-plus,” he said. “The political issues overshadow most of what happens here. But we are very, very bullish.”
他說：“如果要我給整體情況評個級，我會給它評B+。政治問題掩蓋了這裏發生的大多數變化。不過，我們對前景極爲看好。”
