匯率戰爭議折射亞洲需求低迷 China export woes mirrored across Asia
If Asia really is in the midst of a new currency war, then the hard part will be identifying any winners.
如果說亞洲真的陷於一場新的匯率戰爭，那麼困難的部分將是看出誰是贏家。
A number of analysts billed China’s move to weaken the renminbi last week as an attempt to boost exports by making its products more competitive. Data a few days earlier had shown Chinese exports sinking more than 8 per cent in July, while the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi had just hit a record high.
很多分析師稱，中國上週引導人民幣貶值是爲了使中國的產品更具競爭力，從而促進出口。在那幾天前的數據表明，7月份中國出口同比下降8%，而人民幣實際有效匯率剛剛創出歷史新高。
However, China’s export problem is not simply one of increased international competition — it is also a case of lacklustre global demand. Despite improving economic activity in the US and Europe, exports from across Asia have yet to see a lift, leaving policymakers with scant tools to respond.
然而，中國的出口問題並不只是國際競爭加劇——它也反映了全球需求低迷的現實。儘管美國和歐洲的經濟活動正在好轉，但亞洲各國的出口還未見任何起色，使政策制定者缺乏應對工具。
China and its neighbours share many of the same challenges. Japan’s poor second-quarter gross domestic product figures were partly due to weak trade, while South Korean exports have been shrinking for the past five months. Shipments from Thailand, Taiwan, the Philippines and Malaysia have all been disappointing this year.
中國及其鄰國有着許多相同的挑戰。日本糟糕的第二季度國內生產總值(GDP)數據被部分歸因於貿易疲弱，而韓國的出口五個月來不斷萎縮。泰國、臺灣、菲律賓和馬來西亞今年以來的出口也都令人失望。
“The argument that China is trying to spur growth by weakening its currency to spur exports does not strike us as very convincing,” said Paul Gruenwald, Standard & Poor’s chief economist for Asia-Pacific, in a report. “Exports are more a function of foreign demand.”
“中國正試圖通過削弱人民幣來刺激出口、進而刺激經濟增長的說法，在我們看來不是特別有說服力，”標準普爾(Standard & Poor’s)亞太首席經濟學家龔華德(Paul Gruenwald)在一份報告中表示。“出口在更大程度上是外國需求的函數。”
China is partly to blame. Imports into the country have been falling for much of this year, a sign of declining domestic demand as the economy slows. Car sales growth in China has dropped sharply this year, weighing on the earnings of global automakers.
就此而言，中國需要承擔一部分指責。今年以來的大部分時間裏，中國的進口都在下降，表明內需在經濟放緩之際減弱。今年中國的汽車銷量增長大幅下滑，拖累了全球汽車製造商的盈利。
The slowdown in China’s economy has also helped push down global commodity prices, especially those used in heavy industry such as iron ore, copper and oil. That, in turn, has undermined growth in the resource-rich emerging markets that export to China, including Brazil and Russia, both of which are in recession.
中國經濟放緩還幫助推低了全球大宗商品價格，尤其是重工業所用的大宗商品，如鐵礦石、銅和石油。這進而影響了向中國出口的資源豐富的新興市場（包括雙雙陷入經濟衰退的巴西和俄羅斯）的增長。
The knock-on effects of the commodity slide have been felt in Asia’s high-end manufacturing economies, notably South Korea and Japan, where cuts to investment by miners and energy producers have hit the large engineering companies that supply drilling platforms and gas storage units used in resource extraction.
大宗商品下滑所產生的連鎖效應，波及了亞洲的高端製造業經濟體，尤其是韓國和日本。礦商和能源生產企業紛紛削減投資，打擊了日韓的大型工程企業，這些企業供應資源開採所用的鑽井平臺和天然氣儲存罐。
Better economic performance in the west, particularly the US, has not fed through to stronger demand at Asian factories. Some economists put that down to the changing nature of developed market growth, but the increased importance of trade within emerging markets has been a big drag on headline figures.
西方（尤其是美國）較好的經濟表現，並沒有給亞洲工廠帶來更強勁需求。一些經濟學家將此歸因於發達市場增長不斷變化的特性，但是新興市場之間貿易的重要性提高，是拖累整體數字的一大因素。
“We’re no longer as dependent on US demand, but that’s now coming back to bite us,” said Fred Neumann, chief Asia economist at HSBC. “Over the next five years, it’s very hard to see exports as the engine of Asian growth.”
“我們不再像以前那樣依賴美國的需求，但這一點眼下成了壞事，”匯豐(HSBC)首席亞洲經濟學家範力民(Fred Neumann)表示。“很難看到出口將在未來五年裏成爲亞洲經濟增長的引擎。”
Consumer electronics, one of Asia’s main export sectors, has also performed poorly. The long and steady decline of the personal computer industry has been bad news for Southeast Asia, a production base for components such as hard drives, while tablet and smartphone shipments have been weak in the absence of new products and increased competition in the Chinese market from domestic manufacturers.
消費類電子產品作爲亞洲的主要出口之一，近來也表現不佳。個人電腦行業持久而穩定的下降趨勢，對東南亞（硬盤等計算機組件的生產基地）是個壞消息，而平板電腦和智能手機的出貨量在沒有新產品、同時中國市場國內廠商競爭加劇的情況下，近期也一直疲軟。
After years of rapid credit growth, Asian central banks have been left short of tools to counter the effects of tepid external demand. Interest rates in many countries are already at or near record lows.
多年的信貸快速增長，使亞洲各國央行缺乏工具來對抗低迷外部需求的影響。很多國家的利率已經處於（或者接近）創紀錄低點。
