美聯儲傳遞出怎樣的利率信號
It was one of the most hotly awaited Federal Reserve meetings since Janet Yellen became Fed chairwoman over a year ago. The Fed on Wednesday ditched its pledges to be patient before increasing interest rates, allowing it to hike as soon as June in what would be the first upward move for close to a decade.
However, the Fed surprised markets by setting out a shallow longer-term path for rate hikes — as well as by cutting its growth and inflation projections. This changed picture likely reflects in part the recent surge in the dollar, which is dragging on the US economy. The overall message is that the Fed still wants to prime the markets for higher rates, but it is very much taking a softly-softly approach.
然而，讓市場感到意外的是，美聯儲指出的較長期的利率上行幅度低於預測，同時下調了經濟增速和通脹預期。這些變化在一定程度上反映在了美元走勢中，美元最近的飆升正拖累美國經濟。總體而言，美聯儲傳遞出這樣一種信息：它仍希望市場對加息做好準備，但它的動作會十分輕柔。No more “patience”?
不再“保持耐心”？
That word — effectively a pledge to keep rates at near-zero levels for at least two meetings — no longer appears in the Federal Open Market Committee’s statement. This was no surprise. Ms Yellen said pretty clearly to Congress back in February that she wanted to free the FOMC’s hands to move rates when it saw fit. The Fed is making a careful transition away from its practice of offering markets meticulous guidance on where borrowing costs will go, to making decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.
“耐心”一詞沒有出現在美國聯邦公開市場委員會(FOMC)的最新聲明中。這並不令人意外。此前，這個詞的出現實際上意味着，美聯儲承諾將接近零的利率至少再維持兩次會議。今年2月，耶倫曾非常明確地告訴美國國會，她希望讓該委員會放開手腳，能夠視時機自由調整利率。美聯儲正小心地改變先前的一種做法，那就是向市場提供有關利率走向的細緻指引，而是更多以每次會議作爲節點做出利率決策。What are the Fed’s new signals on rates?
美聯儲在利率方面發出了何種新信號？The Fed has a new test which was also foreshadowed in Ms Yellen’s Congressional testimony. Rate-setters will need to see “further improvement in the labor market” as well as being “reasonably confident” that inflation is heading back to the 2 per cent target over the medium term — around three years. The FOMC’s new forecasts suggest unemployment is on the right track — it will drop to as low as 4.8 per cent by 2017 from the current 5.5 per cent level. While weak inflation is a bigger headache for the Fed, the recent declines in inflation are still expected to be transitory, with the FOMC expecting price growth to be running at 1.9 to 2 per cent by 2017.
美聯儲需要考慮一系列新的經濟形勢，耶倫在國會上的證詞已經預示了這一點。它需要看到“勞動力市場的進一步改善”，並且“有理由相信”通脹將在中期（3年左右）達到2%的目標。FOMC的最新預測表明，失業率的走勢符合預期——到2017年將從當前的5.5%下降至4.8%。儘管偏弱的通脹是令美聯儲更爲頭痛的問題，但近期通脹下降仍然預期是暫時性的。FOMC預計，到2017年通脹率將達1.9%至2%。So the way is clear for hikes this year?
那麼，今年加息的道路已掃清嗎？That is still the view of the vast majority of the FOMC. Some 15 of 17 members expect the first move to come in 2015. And while Ms Yellen insisted that the market should not assume an initial hike will come as soon as June, she was not ruling that month out either. But the message that investors took away from the Fed’s March meeting was a dovish one: the latest rate projections from Fed officials suggest the first move now won’t come until September. FOMC members’ median interest rate projections for the end of 2015, 2016 and 2017 were all reduced by 0.5-0.75 of a point compared with December.
是的，這仍是FOMC絕大多數委員的觀點。17名委員中有15名預計，第一次加息將發生在2015年。儘管耶倫堅稱，市場不應想當然地認爲最早將於6月首次加息，但她也不排除這種可能。但是，投資者從美聯儲最新會議中聽到的仍是一種鴿派的聲音：美聯儲官員的最新利率預測顯示，首次加息將不會早於9月。 FOMC委員們對2015年底、2016年底和2017年底的利率預測平均值，都較去年12月時的水平降低了0.5至0.75個點。Why the changed interest-rate outlook?
爲何利率展望發生了改變？The Fed’s projections for interest rates, growth and inflation are all weaker than in December — and a number of factors are at work. A critical one is the dollar’s surge to multi-decade highs, which has in itself represented an effective tightening of financial conditions. While Ms Yellen said the strong dollar reflected a strong US economy, she also observed that it would restrain import prices and inflation for longer than expected. The FOMC also noted a weakening in exports, which is a result of the dollar’s surge. There are other changes that tilt in a dovish direction. For example, the Fed has decided that the longer-run rate of unemployment is lower than previously believed, at 5-5.2 per cent compared with 5.2-5.5 per cent, which could point to more slack in the jobs market.
美聯儲目前對利率、經濟增長和通脹率的預期均弱於去年12月。背後有很多原因。一個關鍵因素，是美元匯率飆升至幾十年來的高點，這表明資金狀況有所收緊。儘管耶倫表示，美元走強反映了美國經濟的強勁，但她也評論道，這將在比預期更長的時間內抑制進口價格和通脹率。FOMC還提到了美元飆升造成的出口疲軟。What was the market reaction?
市場有何反應？The Fed’s shallower path for rate hikes — plus its jawboning on dollar headwinds — led to a sharp drop in the greenback against the euro on Wednesday afternoon. Stocks rallied, as did bonds, in a reflection of relief among investors that the Fed is taking a cautious approach to higher rates. As Ms Yellen said herself: the opposite of patient is not impatient — a message traders embraced with relief. Officials still expect rates to settle eventually at 3.75 per cent — much higher than the market expects — but it will take longer for them to get there. The question remains whether the Fed is mollycoddling investors with dovish language — and whether a sharp and painful adjustment to the market’s rock-bottom interest-rate expectations still lies ahead.
美聯儲給出了加息幅度將小於預期的信號，加上它對美元上行的警告，導致週三下午美元兌歐元匯率大跌。債市和股市同時上漲，表明投資者相信美聯儲對加息的考量十分慎重。正如耶倫自己所說，耐心的反義詞不是不耐煩——這一信息讓交易員們欣然鬆了口氣。官員們仍預計利率最終將達到3.75%，這個水平遠高於市場預期，但要經過更長時間才能達到。現在的疑問是，美聯儲是否在用溫和語言縱容投資者，而對市場最低利率預期的劇烈、痛苦的調整仍可能出現。
