美聯儲不急於退出經濟刺激計劃

WASHINGTON — The Federal Reserve is in no hurry to raise interest rates.

華盛頓——美國聯邦儲備委員會（Federal Reserve，簡稱美聯儲）並不急於提高利率。

The economic recovery has stayed on course in recent months, and the Fed’s policy-making committee said on Wednesday that it saw no reason to change its own plans, rejecting calls for a faster retreat from its long-running stimulus campaign.

最近幾個月的經濟復甦保持平穩，但美聯儲的政策制定委員會週三稱，沒有理由改變該機構的計劃，這相當於否決了加速退出長期刺激行動的呼籲。

“There are still too many people who want jobs but cannot find them, too many who are working part time but would prefer full-time work, and too many who are not searching for a job but would be if the labor market were stronger,” the central bank’s chairwoman, Janet L. Yellen, said at a news conference.

美聯儲主席珍妮特·L·耶倫(Janet L. Yellen)在新聞發佈會上稱，“仍然有太多人想要工作卻找不到工作，太多人想要全職工作卻只能做兼職，太多人雖然沒有在找工作，但如果勞動力市場更強勁，他們就會去找工作。”

As expected, the Fed said it would move to end its most recent bond-buying campaign after adding a final $15 billion in October to its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities, according to a statement published after a two-day meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee.

其下屬聯邦公開市場委員會(Federal Open Market Committee)在一個爲期兩天的會議後發表的聲明顯示，不出所料，美聯儲稱將在10月份最後一次購買150億美元國債和抵押債券之後，結束近期的債券購買計劃。

The Fed also on Wednesday published a description of the plans for the next phase in its slow retreat from its policy to encourage economic growth, including some expected changes in the mechanics of monetary policy.

美聯儲週三還發布了緩慢退出刺激政策的下一階段方案，包括預期中的貨幣政策機制變化。

But it added that it planned to continue the mainstay of its campaign, holding short-term interest rates near zero, for a “considerable time.” The phrase is generally understood to mean that the Fed does not intend to raise rates before the middle of next year. Walking a tightrope, Ms. Yellen emphasized both that a rate increase was not imminent and that the Fed could act sooner. The timing, she said repeatedly, would be determined by data on the actual course of the economy in the coming months.

但美聯儲還表示，將繼續推行該政策的主要部分，在“相當長的時間裏”，使短期利率保持在接近零的水平。外界普遍認爲，這個表述意味着美聯儲不打算在明年年中前上調利率。耶倫如同走鋼絲般保持着平衡，她既強調不會很快上調利率，又聲稱美聯儲可能會提早行動。她多次表示，具體時間將由未來幾個月真實的經濟數據決定。

“That really is so important for market participants to keep in mind,” she said.

“市場參與者要記住這一點，這十分重要，”她說。

Bond investors, the Fed’s primary audience, drove up yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury bond to 2.6 percent. Stock markets fell sharply in the moments after the Fed released its various statements, then rose sharply, then called the whole thing off. The S.&P. 500-stock index ended the day up 0.13 percent at 2,001.57.

債券投資者——美聯儲的主要聽衆——把基準10年期國債的收益率推高到了2.6%。在美聯儲發表了多項聲明之後，股市大幅下挫，然後迅速反彈，恢復了之前的水平。標準普爾500指數收於2001.57點，上漲了0.13%。

The Fed appeared to be playing for time, delaying decisions about its next steps for as long as possible as it grapples with the limits of its ability to improve economic conditions. Fed officials downgraded their expectations for growth in 2015 in forecasts published at the same time as the policy statement, suggesting that they had once again overestimated the strength of the recovery.

美聯儲似乎在爭取時間，在應對自身改善經濟狀況能力的種種侷限的同時，儘可能地推遲有關未來行動的決定。在與政策聲明同時發佈的預期報告中，美聯儲官員下調了對2015年的經濟增長預期，這意味着他們此前又一次高估了復甦的強度。

Officials now expect the economy to grow from 2.6 to 3 percent next year, compared with June forecasts for growth of 3 to 3.2 percent.

官員們目前預計，2015年的經濟增速在2.6%到3%之間，而6月份的預期爲3%到3.2%。

Despite the disappointing results, officials have generally concluded this is not a reason for the Fed to increase its efforts, but instead evidence that the potential output of the American economy has been permanently reduced by the Great Recession and by long-term problems like an aging population and reduced innovation.

儘管這些數據令人失望，官員們普遍認爲，這不能成爲美聯儲擴大行動的理由，而是證明了大衰退和人口老齡化及創新能力下降等長期問題，已經給美國的經濟產出潛能造成永久性的傷害。

If the Fed pushes too hard, unsustainable growth could eventually generate faster inflation. If it stops pushing too soon, however, damage that could have been repaired by additional stimulus may last indefinitely: Many people who could have found jobs might never return to the work force.

如果美聯儲採取過多行動，不可持續的增長可能最終導致通脹水平加速上升。如果過早地停止採取行動，本來可以由更多刺激政策所修復的破壞就有可能永久地存在下去：許多本來能找到工作的人可能永遠無法重新就業。

Ms. Yellen spent much of her news conference on Wednesday avoiding questions about this balance, often taking considerable time to say very little.

週三，在新聞發佈會的大部分時間裏，耶倫避免回答有關如何平衡的問題，經常用了很長時間卻沒說出什麼內容。

Still, simply by holding steady, the Fed is prolonging its effort to improve economic conditions, and supporters of the campaign applauded.

然而，美聯儲用保持穩定的方式，延長了改善經濟狀況的努力，行動的支持者對此表示贊同。

“Kudos to the Yellen Fed for not signaling a more hawkish stance in an economy that still needs their support,” wrote Jared Bernstein, a fellow at the Center on Budget Policy and Priorities and a former economic adviser to Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. “When it comes to economic policy makers still trying to do something big to help the macroeconomy, the Fed’s the only game in town.”

“美聯儲沒有釋放在經濟方面採取更強硬態度的信號，值得稱讚，美國經濟仍然需要他們的支持，”預算與政策重點中心(Center for Budget and Policy Priorities)研究員、副總統小約瑟夫·R·拜登(Joseph R. Biden Jr.)的前經濟顧問傑瑞德·伯恩斯坦(Jared Bernstein)寫道。“在經濟政策制定者中，美聯儲是唯一仍舊在設法採取重大舉措來幫助宏觀經濟的。”

Critics warned — as they have for several years — that the Fed was doing too much, with potential consequences including inflation and financial instability. The House on Wednesday passed a Republican bill intended to limit the Fed’s flexibility by requiring it to adopt a rule for making monetary policy, and to explain its deviations. The measure was not expected to progress in the Democrat-controlled Senate.

批評人士警告稱——多年來他們一直有這樣的警告——美聯儲干預得太多，可能會帶來通貨膨脹及金融動盪等後果。衆議院在週三通過了共和黨的一項法案，該法案要求美聯儲爲貨幣政策的制定引入一套規則，違背規則是需要做出解釋，以此限制美聯儲的靈活性。外界認爲，由民主黨人控制的參議院不會通過該法案。

The Fed committee acted by a vote of 8 to 2. Charles I. Plosser, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and Richard W. Fisher, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, argued that economic conditions had improved sufficiently for the Fed to signal it could begin to retreat more quickly.

美聯儲委員會通過投票做出以上決定，投票結果爲8比2。費城聯儲銀行( Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)行長查爾斯·I·普羅索(Charles I. Plosser)、達拉斯聯儲銀行(Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)行長理查德·W·費希爾(Richard W. Fisher)辯稱，經濟狀況已經大幅改善，美聯儲可以發出信號，表明該機構可以更加快速地撤出。

“The growing dissent in voting reflects the increasing disagreement amongst the F.O.M.C. that the Fed chair has been trying to iron out, regarding how much more accommodation the economy still needs to a sustain a robust recovery,” said Michael Dolega, senior economist at the TD Bank Group.

道明銀行集團(TD Bank Group)資深經濟學家邁克爾·多萊加(Michael Dolega)表示，“投票顯示的不同意見反映出，聯邦公開市場委員會內部，在美國經濟需要多少寬鬆政策才能維持強勁的復甦狀態方面出現了越來越多的分歧，美聯儲主席試圖消除分歧。”

Yet the dissent also obscures the extent of broad agreement within the committee about the course of monetary policy. Of the 17 officials who participate in the policy-making meetings (some of whom do not hold votes this year), all but two predicted that the Fed would raise rates before the end of 2015.

但這種分歧也遮掩了一個事實，即該委員會內部就貨幣政策的方向達成廣泛共識。在參加決策會議的17名官員（其中一些人今年沒有參與投票）中，只有兩人認爲，美聯儲會在2015年底前提高利率。

The central bank also affirmed that it planned to maintain its bond holdings, by replacing matured bonds, until after it starts to raise interest rates. It said that it then planned to allow its holdings to dwindle naturally, without asset sales.

美聯儲還證實，該機構計劃通過到期債券的再投資來繼續持有債券，直到開始提高利率。美聯儲表示，他們計劃在不進行資產出售的情況下，自然而然地減少債券持有量。

The Fed issued a similar exit plan in 2011, only to find that the economy disappointed its expectations. A government report on Wednesday offered a reminder that the economy remains weak. The Fed regards 2 percent annual inflation as the healthiest pace for the economy, but inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index rose just 1.7 percent in the 12 months ended in August — and the Fed prefers a separate measure that shows even less inflation than the price index.

美聯儲在2011年提出了類似的退出計劃，結果發現，美國的經濟狀況辜負了他們的期待。週三發表的政府報告提醒了我們，美國經濟依然疲弱。美聯儲認爲2%的年通貨膨脹率對於美國經濟來說是最健康的水平，但截至8月，根據消費者物價指數計算的通貨膨脹率在過去十二個月中只上升了1.7%，美聯儲傾向於另一項指數，該指數顯示的通貨膨脹率甚至更低。

Moreover, the forecasts of Fed officials published on Wednesday showed that most now expect inflation to remain below 2 percent during 2015.

除此之外，美聯儲官員在週三公佈的預測顯示，大多數人現在認爲2015年的通貨膨脹率將維持在2%以下的水平。

Nonetheless, Ms. Yellen suggested the Fed had done what it could.

儘管如此，耶倫表示，美聯儲已經竭盡所能。

“We have been at zero for a very long time,” she said. “In a general sense I think we have been lower for longer than many standard policy rules would suggest.”

“我們在很長時間裏將利率維持在零的水平，”她說。“從一般意義上來說，我認爲與很多標準政策規定相比，我們在比較長的時間裏維持了較低的利率。”

The internal debate is now between officials, led by Ms. Yellen, still willing to wait a considerable time before raising interest rates, and those who want to move sooner.

美聯儲內部存在爭論，以耶倫爲首的一方仍舊願意等待相當長的時間再提高利率，另一方則希望快速行動。