蒂勒森 世界應適應長期低油價

翻譯僅供參考 中文在上 英文對照在下

埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)首席執行官表示，世界應該“適應”一個油價相對疲弱的時期，而美國頁岩油生產的適應力超過許多人此前的預期。

The world should “settle in” for a period of relatively weak oil prices, the chief executive of ExxonMobil has said, with US shale production more resilient than many people had expected.

雷克斯•蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)發表上述言論之際，全球最大的上市能源公司表示，今年將削減資本支出12%，這個跡象表明能源業正通過削減成本來應對原油價格暴跌。

Rex Tillerson’s comments came as the world’s largest listed energy company said it would cut capital spending by 12 per cent this year, in a sign of how the industry is cutting costs in response to the plunge in crude prices.

蒂勒森在紐約的年度分析師會議上表示，油價之所以暴跌，是因爲中國和其他地區的需求增長放緩，同時美國供應“就像一列貨運列車一樣駛來”。他說，這些狀況可能會持續。

Mr Tillerson told an annual meeting for analysts in New York that oil prices had crashed because demand growth in China and elsewhere had slowed, while US supplies were “coming like a freight train”. Those conditions could persist, he said.

蒂勒森表示：“我認爲，人們需要在一段時期適應這種局面。目前有大量的供應，而且我沒有看到特別健康的世界經濟。”

“My view is people need to kind of settle in for a while,” he said. “There’s a lot of supply out there and I don’t see a particularly healthy world economy.”

油價自去年夏季以來下跌約50%，這使得人們預計，如果油價沒有迅速反彈的話，近年快速增長的美國產量將很快趨緩，甚至可能下降。

The fall of about 50 per cent in oil prices since last summer has led to expectations that US production, which has grown rapidly in recent years, will soon level off and perhaps go into decline if prices do not rebound quickly.

但蒂勒森表示，頁岩氣行業的先例——儘管價格下跌和鑽井機數量大幅下降，但頁岩氣產量繼續增長——似乎表明，美國石油產量將比人們所假設的更加強勁。

But Mr Tillerson said the precedent of the shale gas industry, where output has continued to grow as prices fell and the number of rigs drilling wells dropped sharply, suggested US oil output would be more robust than assumed.

他補充稱，在頁岩氣領域削減成本並提高生產率的公司往往也生產頁岩油或“緻密”油，這意味着美國石油業將不會被低油價和其他地區的競爭擊垮。他說：“我認爲你也將會在緻密油領域看到一些同樣的適應力，因此它將在全球展開競爭。”

The same companies that had cut costs and increased productivity in shale gas were often involved in shale or “tight” oil as well, he added, meaning that the industry would not be crushed by low prices and competition from other regions. “I think you’re going to see some of the same resilience on the tight oil side, too. And therefore it will compete globally,” he said.

蒂勒森向分析師們表示，埃克森美孚計劃將今年的年度資本支出削減至約340億美元（之前預期爲370億美元），2016-17年度的資本支出還會略低一些。但他堅持該集團一年前的預測，即到2017年，其產量將達到430萬桶石油當量/日，高於去年的400萬桶石油當量/日。

Mr Tillerson told analysts Exxon planned to cut annual capital spending for this year to about $34bn, and to a little less for 2016-17, down from an earlier projection of $37bn. But he stuck to the group’s prediction from a year ago that by 2017 its production would reach 4.3m barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from 4m b/d last year.

他的言論進一步表明，石油供應商應對油價暴跌的時間可能比許多高管和分析師預計的更長。

His comments are further evidence that oil suppliers’ response to the plunge in prices could take longer than many executives and analysts expected.

埃克森美孚規劃的資本支出削減幅度與美國第二大石油集團雪佛龍(Chevron)擬議的削減幅度相當，但低於英國石油公司(BP)宣佈的20%的削減幅度。

Exxon’s planned capital spending cut is in line with the reduction planned by Chevron, the second-largest US oil group, but smaller than the 20 per cent drop announced by BP.

蒂勒森還暗示，埃克森美孚研究了許多潛在的收購目標，由於油價下跌，這些目標的估值顯得更具吸引力。他說：“我們感興趣且在考慮的目標真的沒啥限制。當然有人在接洽我們。”

Mr Tillerson also suggested Exxon had looked at numerous possible acquisition targets, with valuations potentially looking more attractive as a result of the fall in oil prices. “There really is no limitation on what we might be interested in and considering,” he said. “Obviously people are approaching us.”

他補充稱，埃克森美孚將只會收購它相信能夠提高被收購企業盈利能力的目標。

He added that Exxon would only make takeovers where it believed it could raise the profitability of the acquired business.

預計埃克森美孚天然氣產量的下降將持續至2017年，但石油產量今年將增長7%。

Exxon’s gas production is expected to continue to decline until 2017, but oil is set to rise 7 per cent this year.