日本世界出口大國地位可能不保

Higher energy imports played a role in Japan's record current-account deficit in November. But the data is a sign of a more fundamental change: that Japan's three decades as one of the world's biggest exporters may be over.

能源進口增加是日本11月出現創紀錄經常項目赤字的一個原因。但該數據也反映了一個更根本的變化：日本長達30年的出口大國地位可能不保。

Since the 1980s until 2010 Japan exported more than it imported, supplying the world with electronics, machinery and other goods.

從1980年代到2010年，日本的出口一直超過進口，向全世界出口電子產品、機械以及其他商品。

That changed in 2011, after the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Japan's nuclear power plants shut down, pushing up imports of other fuel and tipping the trade balance into deficit.

但在2011年福島核災難發生後，情況發生了變化。日本關閉了核電廠並加大了對其他燃料的進口，日本貿易也由此轉爲逆差。

Those reactors remain closed and Japan's huge fuel imports, compounded by the weak yen, are widening the trade deficit.

這些核反應堆仍處於關閉狀態。而日本龐大的燃料進口加上疲軟的日圓，正導致該國的貿易逆差不斷擴大。

But even stripping out fuel, Japan would be running a meager trade surplus at best. A major factor is that Japanese companies have moved production offshore, to cheaper centers in China and elsewhere.

但即便剔除燃料進口，日本充其量也只能實現少許貿易順差。一個主要原因是日本企業已紛紛將生產遷到海外，搬到中國等生產成本更低的地方。

Those goods show up in the export statistics from, say, China, not Japan. Japan's ambitious monetary easing, meant to weaken the yen and lure companies back onshore, so far has failed to entice firms back.

如此一來，這些產品就出現在他國（例如中國）的出口統計中，而不是日本。日本此前推出了宏偉的貨幣放鬆政策，旨在壓低日圓匯率、吸引企業迴歸本土生產，但到目前爲止，這一策略並未奏效。

'Only a small number of companies brought back factories to Japan as the yen weakened,' said Junko Nishioka, an economist with RBS Securities in Tokyo.

蘇格蘭皇家銀行證券(RBS Securities)駐東京的經濟學家Junko Nishioka說，隨着日圓走軟，只有少數公司把海外工廠遷回了日本國內。

Japanese exporters also are having a hard time competing with other nations, especially in the smartphone market. Japanese consumers are now increasingly buying imported goods such as electronics that were once the mainstay of the nation's exports.

與此同時，日本出口商在國際上也面臨着很大的競爭壓力，特別是在智能手機市場。眼下在日本，購買進口電子產品等進口商品的消費者越來越多。而電子產品一度是日本出口的支柱。

'There's a loss of competitiveness of Japanese manufacturing,' said Izumi Devalier, an economist at HSBC in Hong Kong.

匯豐(HSBC)駐香港的經濟學家Izumi Devalier說，日本製造的產品正在失去競爭力。

That's showing up in weak export numbers. Exports in yen terms are expected to rise 9.8% in the current fiscal year, but that gain is largely due to a weaker currency making earnings look larger in yen-terms, according to the Japan Foreign Trade Council. Imports, meanwhile, will rise 14.1%, driven by higher fuel needs, the council estimates.

這在日本疲軟的出口數據上得到顯現。日本貿易會(Japan Foreign Trade Council)認爲，截至3月底的當前財政年度以日圓計價的日本出口額預計將增長9.8%，但這主要是由於日圓走軟使出口所得外匯能兌換成更多日圓。與此同時，日本貿易會預計，受燃料需求增加推動，進口將增長14.1%。

The value of liquefied natural gas imports will likely rise 13.9% in the current fiscal year through end March, but imported devices like smartphones will rise 25.7%, cars 14.6% and clothing 24.8%, according to JFTC forecasts.

日本貿易會的預測顯示，當前財年日本液化天然氣進口額可能增加13.9%，智能手機等設備的進口將增加25.7%，汽車和服裝進口額分別增加14.6%和24.8%。

The current account, which measures trade and net income flows, should turn back to positive territory in the second quarter this year, many economists say. But that's largely due to sizeable earnings from overseas investments, which will help mask a continued trade deficit.

許多經濟學家認爲，日本經常項目應該會在今年第二季度重新取得盈餘。不過，這將主要得益於大量海外投資收益幫助掩蓋持續的貿易逆差。

'In the 2000s, Japan earned income from the twin trade and income surpluses, but we're in a new structure, where a surplus in the income account makes up for a trade deficit,' said Sojitz Research Institute chief economist Tatsuhiko Yoshizaki.

Sojitz Research Institute首席經濟學家Tatsuhiko Yoshizaki表示，本世紀頭十年，日本同時取得貿易順差和海外投資收益，而目前的新情況是需要用海外投資收益來填補貿易逆差。

Turning the nuclear reactors back on -- which is still the subject of heated political debate -- could help narrow the trade deficit by reducing fuel imports. But even here, the effect is likely to be limited.

如果日本的核電站重新投入運營（這仍是激烈的政治辯論的話題），則燃料進口將減少，從而幫助縮小貿易逆差。不過，即便核電站重新投入使用，帶來的影響可能也將有限。

Hiromichi Shirakawa, chief economist at Credit Suisse in Tokyo, said that would help reduce the gap, but it would 'not be enough to change the course' of Japan's trade patterns.

瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)駐東京的首席經濟學家Hiromichi Shirakawa表示，核電站重新啓動將幫助縮小缺口，但不足以改變日本的貿易格局。

For Japan, these issues have various impacts. The government wants more business to come back onshore, raising wages and consumption and ending years of deflation. If this doesn't happen, Japan's economy might sink back into the doldrums.

對於日本來說，以上這些問題具有不同的影響。日本政府希望看到的是更多企業迴歸本土、工資和消費水平上升、多年通縮局面結束。如果情況沒能如此，日本經濟可能會重新陷入低迷。

In economic terms, a large current-account deficit means a gap between savings and investment. That could mean Japan has to rely more on foreign investors to fund the gap in the future, a risky strategy for a country with one of the world's largest stocks of public debt.

從經濟角度講，較大經常項目赤字意味着儲蓄和投資之間存在缺口。這進而意味着未來日本可能不得不更多地依賴海外投資者填補這一缺口。考慮到日本的公共債務規模全球領先，這將是一個高風險的策略。