中國鐵礦石交易人民幣結算面臨障礙

China's Bohai Commodity Exchange hopes to increase its influence on the pricing of iron ore with a plan to make yuan-denominated contracts available to overseas investors, but the Latest effort to capitalize on the internationalization of the Chinese currency faces daunting hurdles.

中國渤海商品交易所(Bohai Commodity Exchange)計劃向海外投資者推出以人民幣計價的合約，希望以此加強對鐵礦石定價的影響。該交易所這一最新舉措是想借人民幣國際化之機獲益，不過卻面臨着巨大障礙。

Late last month, the People's Bank of China approved the Bohai bourse's application for the first cross-border commodity contract offered out of China, and the physical iron-ore contract is expected to make its debut in the first quarter, the exchange's Vice General Manager Zheng Yu recently told the Wall Street Journal.

渤海商品交易所副總經理鄭宇最近告訴《華爾街日報》(Wall Street Journal)，上月底中國央行批准了該交易所的首個跨境商品交易合約，現貨鐵礦石合約預計將於第一季度推出。

Mr. Zheng said the exchange wants to target Australian investors at the outset, and then gradually expand its reach to target investors in South America, namely countries like Brazil, another key source of China's iron-ore imports.

鄭宇表示，初期階段交易所想把目標鎖定爲澳大利亞投資者，之後逐步擴展到南美投資者，也就是作爲中國另一個重要鐵礦石進口來源的巴西等國。

It will be as simple as opening a yuan account at an Australian branch of the Bank of China or China Merchants Bank and registering with the Bohai exchange, Mr. Zheng, said. This will position Australian miners, for example, to trade directly with buyers such as Chinese steel mills, he added.

鄭宇說，投資者只需在中國銀行(Bank of China)或招商銀行(China Merchants Bank)的澳大利亞分行開個人民幣帳戶，並在渤海交易所註冊一下，就這麼簡單。他說，這將使澳大利亞礦企得以直接與中國鋼鐵企業等買家交易。

But even Chinese steelmakers don't seem too excited about this prospect.

但就連中國鋼企似乎也對這一前景並不感到太振奮。

'I doubt this Bohai contract will gain much traction because nearly all of China's iron-ore trade is settled in dollars, and there's little interest or incentive to settle in the yuan,' said an iron-ore manager at Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., the listed unit of Baosteel Group, China's third-largest steelmaker by output.

寶山鋼鐵股份有限公司(Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., 簡稱：寶鋼股份)一位鐵礦石經理表示，他懷疑渤海的現貨人民幣結算交易能否做起來，因爲中國的鐵礦石交易幾乎全部是以美元結算，人們對以人民幣結算沒有什麼興趣或動力。寶鋼股份是中國以產量計第三大鋼鐵企業寶鋼集團有限公司(Baosteel Group co.)的上市子公司。

Baoshan Iron and its iron-ore suppliers use the U.S. currency to settle their contracts, as it is the standard currency in global commodity trade, the company said. That is around $4 billion that Baoshan Iron spends on roughly 40 million tons a year of iron ore, the manager said.

該公司稱，寶鋼股份和鐵礦石供應商使用美元結算，因爲美元是全球大宗商品交易的標準貨幣。這位經理說，寶鋼股份每年支付約40億美元購買4,000萬噸左右的鐵礦石。

Australia accounts for two-thirds of China's iron-ore imports, which hit a record 77.84 million metric tons in November, and traders estimate the total for 2013 will be 800 million tons--valued at more than $107 billion based on current prices.

來自澳大利亞的鐵礦石佔到了中國鐵礦石進口的三分之二。中國去年11月份的鐵礦石進口量達到了創紀錄的7,784萬噸。交易員們估計，2013年全年的進口量將達到8億噸，按當前價格計算，進口額超過1,070億美元。

While Australian companies are likely to be studying the planned contract, people familiar with the largest miners say the Bohai exchange isn't likely to see a significant or swift uptake, as such companies like to trade in U.S. dollars to limit currency risk.

據瞭解大型礦商的人士稱，雖然澳大利亞礦商可能會對擬推出的人民幣計價合同進行研究，但渤海商品交易所不大可能看到企業迅速或大批採用這種新合同，因爲這類公司偏好採用美元進行貿易結算，以控制匯兌風險。

Although the Chinese government is implementing financial reforms that in part will lead to increased use of the country's currency overseas, the yuan is currently being used to pay for just 0.8% of all global transactions, lagging currencies from much smaller economies, including Thailand and Sweden, according to a report from Swift last month.

雖然中國政府正在推行金融改革，這在一定程度上將導致人民幣在海外的使用量增加，但Swift上個月公佈的一份報告顯示，去年10月份，作爲全球支付貨幣，人民幣使用量的佔有率仍只有約0.8%，落後於泰國、瑞典等小得多經濟體的貨幣。

Nevertheless, the yuan did recently overtake the euro and the yen to become the No. 2 currency used in global trade finance, the Swift report showed, with importers and exporters using China's currency for 8.7% of their financing agreements with trade partners in October.

不過報告也顯示，人民幣近期已趕超歐元和日圓，成爲全球第二大常用的國際貿易融資貨幣。2013年10月份，人民幣在全球貿易融資活動中的使用量佔比躍升至約8.7%。

Even the Bohai exchange's Mr. Zheng recognizes that the new contract faces a significant hurdle in becoming a global benchmark given that global miners and steel mills settle their trades each month with reference to a well-established iron-ore index provided by pricing firm Platts.

就連鄭宇也承認，目前全球礦商和鋼鐵企業每月參考已經得到業界認可的普氏(Platts)鐵礦石價格指數來進行貿易結算，考慮到這一情況，新的人民幣計價合同要成爲一個全球基準仍面臨很大障礙。

'There are different kinds of iron-ore products out there, and their [price] differences are changing constantly,' said Jessica Xu, an analyst with Metal Bulletin Research, which offers an iron-ore index in competition with Platts. 'An index can take those into account and reflect them, so it seems that [an iron-ore] index is more likely to fare well in the market.'

Metal Bulletin Research的分析師Jessica Xu說，鐵礦石產品種類繁多，價差也不斷變化。價格指數可以把這些因素都考慮進去並反映出來，所以看起來推出一隻鐵礦石價格指數更有可能在市場上吃得開。Metal Bulletin Research也發佈了一隻鐵礦石價格指數，與普氏開展競爭。