中國需求疲軟致鐵礦石價格跌至新低
The price of iron ore has declined to $63 a tonne for the first time in five and a half years, hit hard by concerns about weak Chinese demand for the steelmaking ingredient.
受投資者對中國鐵礦石需求疲軟的擔憂情緒的強烈打擊，這種鍊鋼原料的價格五年半來首次跌至每噸63美元。Benchmark Australian ore for immediate delivery into China fell $2.60 to $63.30 a tonne yesterday, according to the Steel Index. The last time it traded this low was in May 2009.
鋼鐵指數公司(The Steel Index)數據顯示，對華即時交割的基準澳大利亞鐵礦石的價格昨天下跌2.60美元，至每噸63.30美元。該基準鐵礦石的價格上次處於如此低位還是在2009年5月。
China is the world’s biggest producer of steel and the biggest consumer of seaborne iron ore, which is crucial for the profitability of large mining groups, including Vale of Brazil, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, as well as Japanese trading companies such as Mitsui & Co.
中國是全球最大的鋼材生產國，也是全球最大的海運鐵礦石消費國。海運鐵礦石對巴西淡水河谷(Vale)、必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和力拓(Rio Tinto)等大型礦企以及三井物產(Mitsui & Co)等日本貿易企業的盈利水平有着至關重要的影響。
Last year, the price of the raw material halved as a surge in supply overwhelmed demand growth. Analysts said a build-up of steel inventories in China, caused by overproduction in December, had affected demand for iron ore.
去年，由於供應量的激增大大超過了需求的增長，這種原料的價格跌去了一半。分析師表示，12月份的生產過剩導致中國鋼材庫存積壓，影響了對鐵礦石的需求。“While some mills are turning off production, old inventories still need to clear,” said Melinda Moore, analyst at Standard Bank, who reckons demand for steel has effectively fallen 15-20 per cent from December’s levels.
標準銀行(Standard Bank)分析師梅琳達•穆爾(Melinda Moore)表示：“儘管部分鋼廠正在採取停產措施，但原有的庫存仍有待消化。”她估計，與12月份的水平相比，鋼材需求實際上已下降15%到20%。Other factors weighing on Chinese steel demand include the forthcoming new year holiday, the decision to scrap a key export rebate and a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. A private survey showed growth has stalled for a second straight month in January.
其他壓低中國鋼材需求的因素包括即將到來的春節假期、一項重要出口退稅措施的取消決定、以及製造業增長的放緩。一項私人調查顯示，1月份，中國鋼材需求增長連續第二個月出現停滯。With the domestic construction market in the doldrums, many Chinese steel mills have turned to the export market for buyers. However, the Chinese government recently scrapped an export tax rebate on boron-added steel products, and analysts are unsure whether moves to offer chrome-alloyed steels as an alternative will be successful.
由於國內建築市場低迷，許多中國鋼廠已轉向出口市場尋找買家。然而，中國政府最近取消了對含硼鋼材的出口退稅，同時分析師無法確定鋼廠改爲出口鉻合金鋼享受退稅的舉措能否成功。The country’s imports of seaborne iron ore rose almost 14 per cent last year to a record 932.5m tonnes, with shipments from Australia accounting for 58.5 per cent of the total, up from 50.9 per cent in 2013, recent government data showed.
近期的政府數據顯示，去年中國海運鐵礦石進口量攀升了將近14%，達到創紀錄的9.325億噸。其中，來自澳大利亞的進口占總量的58.5%，高於2013年的50.9%。Australian producers BHP and Rio had been ramping up production, in an effort to win market share and drive high-cost producers out of business. They are reckoned to have knocked about 125m tonnes of China and ex-China supply out of the market last year.
爲了擴大市場份額、將高成本生產商擠出市場，澳大利亞鐵礦石生產商必和必拓和力拓一直在提高產量。據估計，去年它們已把大約1.25億噸的中國及中國以外的供應量擠出了市場。On Friday, Goldman Sachs lowered its iron ore forecasts to $66 this year, $61 next year and $60 in 2017 and 2018, saying the adjustment required to balance the market was “far from complete”.
上週五，高盛(Goldman Sachs)下調了對鐵礦石價格的預期，對今年的預期下調至每噸66美元，對明年的預期下調至每噸61美元，對2017年和2018年的預期則下調至每噸60美元。高盛表示，市場達到供需平衡所需的調整“遠未完成”。
