北京寫字樓供應告急

The Beijing Olympics were accompanied by a huge infrastructure and property building spree that was supposed to set China's capital up for years to come. The city has faced repeated accusations of building too much, too fast, and overestimating the real level of demand - not to mention urban planning buffs' complaints that Beijing's vast roads and fragmented sprawl ignore the profession's best prescriptions for efficient development.
北京奧運會曾帶來了一波巨大的基礎設施和房地產建設熱潮，當時有人認爲這波熱潮將在北京持續數年。北京曾多次面臨建築過多、建設過快、高估了實際需求水平等指責，更不用說城市規劃愛好者的抱怨了，他們批評說，北京開闊的道路和碎片化的道路擴張完全無視規劃部門爲實現高效發展而制定的最佳方案。

Five years on, with barely a pause in its breakneck growth, the capital appears to have run out of office space.
五年來，雖然飛快建設的步伐幾乎從無停歇，北京的寫字樓供應似乎開始告急。

With the city's existing office space more or less full up, Beijing has 'no option' but to build out further out in the suburbs, according to Marcos Chan, head of North China research at Jones Lang LaSalle, a real estate services firm.
房地產服務公司仲量聯行(Jones Lang Lasalle)華北區研究部主管陳錦平(Marcos Chan)說，隨着現有寫字樓或多或少都租滿了，北京沒有其他選擇，只能向郊區擴建。

At just 4.4%, he thinks the city's office vacancy rates are below the 'natural rate' needed to allow the market to churn - like the vital empty slot in a sliding block puzzle. 'It's basically fully occupied,' said Mr. Chan. 'If you want to expand your business in Beijing, there is simply not much space available.'
他說，北京寫字樓空置率僅爲4.4%，低於市場良好運轉需要的“自然空置率”，就像滑塊類遊戲都要有一個至關重要的空位一樣。他說，北京的寫字樓基本都租滿了，如果你想在北京拓展業務，這裏的寫字樓房源已經不多了。

That has made Beijing offices the country's most expensive for tenants, with top-grade rents almost doubling between 2008 and 2012. Shanghai office rents grew by less than 10% in the same period, according to JLL's figures.
這也導致北京成爲全國寫字樓租金最貴的地方，頂級寫字樓租金在2008年至2012年期間上漲了近一倍。據仲量聯行的數據，上海寫字樓租金同期僅上漲了不到10%。

The government has grand plans for a new financial district at Lize in southwestern Beijing to ease the shortage. The planned cluster of banks, insurers and private equity firms will make up the capital's third financial zone. In the 1990s, when the authorities dreamed up Finance Street on the west side of town, the new center was supposed to take pressure off the capital's traditional business district in the east. Finance Street didn't take long to fill up - vacancy rates there are as low as 2%, Mr. Chan said.
北京市政府已經制定了宏大的將西南部麗澤區建設成爲一個新的金融區的計劃，以緩解寫字樓供應短缺局面。這個將彙集銀行、保險公司和私募股權投資公司的新區將成爲北京第三個金融區。上世紀90年代，當有關部門計劃在北京城西興建金融街時，這個新金融中心曾被認爲將緩解東部傳統商業區的壓力。陳錦平說，金融街的寫字樓沒用多久就都租出去了，空置率低至2%。

Beijing's government also has a vision for the satellite towns surrounding the capital. A new airport is planned for Daxing, south of the city - Beijing Capital International Airport, the world's second-busiest by passenger numbers, said in its latest annual report it was reaching saturation point. And unglamorous suburbs like Fangshan and Tongzhou will be designated as 'hubs' for specific industries, like petrochemicals and 'cultural industries,' respectively.
北京市政府也對北京周邊的衛星城有所規劃。南部的大興擬建一座新機場，北京首都國際機場(Beijing Capital International Airport)已在最近的年報中表示，即將達到飽和點。按乘客數量計，該機場是全球第二繁忙的機場。房山和通州等不太繁榮的郊區將被定爲特定行業的中心，比如房山和通州將分別被規劃爲石油化工和“文化產業”中心。

China is in the midst of an orgy of building, with 5.7 billion square meters of office space under construction, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Far away from the capital, smaller cities like Zhengzhou, Changsha and Nanchang are building whole new commercial districts.
中國正在上演一場建築狂歡，據中國國家統計局的數據，在建寫字樓建築面積總計57億平方米。離北京較遠的鄭州、長沙和南昌等城市正在興建全新的商業區。

Lize is currently a vast construction site, where new skyscrapers rise above the overgrown remains of the three-story apartment houses that once covered the site. In Shuitouzhuang, a half-demolished compound that was once home to 400 residents, only one family remains. Answering the door, Ms. Li said she and her family were still discussing compensation with the city government. Though visibly saddened by the loss of her neighborhood, Ms. Li said the authorities had been reasonable.
麗澤金融商務區目前是一個廣闊的建築工地，新的摩天大樓在雜草叢生的廢墟中拔地而起，這裏原先是一些三層住宅樓。在水頭莊，一個曾經有400個住戶的居民區已經拆掉一半，只有一個家庭還未搬走。李（音）女士給記者打開門說，她和她的家人仍在與市政府討論拆遷補償問題。儘管失去老鄰居明顯令她感到難過，李女士說，有關部門還是講理的。

'I have faith that the government will resolve this question,' she said. 'I'll accept their decision on compensation. Whatever they decide, I won't ask for one fen more.'
她說，我相信政府會解決這個問題，我會接受他們對補償問題的決定，無論他們做出怎樣的決定，我都不會多要一分錢。

Sixty-year-old Mrs. Li has lived at Shuitouzhuang for 20 years - ever since her last home, a single story house near Beijing South railway station, was bulldozed for redevelopment.
現年60歲的李女士已經在水頭莊居住20年了，此前她住在北京南站附近的一個平房裏，那裏因爲要重建也已經拆遷了。

Beijing is not alone in building out forests of gleaming new office blocks in the middle of nowhere. London did the same when it designated the industrial wasteland around Canary Wharf as a financial hub back in the 1980s. What was ridiculed at the time as a quixotic venture is now one of the world's key financial centers. The development succeeded on its own terms, even if locals complain that it is miles from anything and has all the soul of a car showroom.
北京並不是唯一一個在偏遠郊區興建閃閃發光的新寫字樓森林的城市。倫敦也曾在上世紀80年代將金絲雀碼頭(Canary Wharf)附近的工業廢棄地規劃爲一個金融中心。儘管當時被嘲諷爲不切實際的冒險，現在這裏已經成爲全球主要金融中心之一。這一開發項目靠自身努力取得了成功，儘管當地人抱怨這裏離市區太遠，並且設計理念完全類似於汽車展廳。

But China already has a major international financial center at Shanghai, and a secondary stock exchange in the southern city of Shenzhen. Seventy miles south-east of Beijing, Tianjin has ambitions to turn itself into a banking center. If China's troubled financial system really hits the rocks some of those offices are going to be empty a very long time.
但中國已經有上海這個主要國際金融中心了，並且在深圳建立了另一個股票交易所。天津市則雄心勃勃地打算將自身建設成爲一個銀行業中心。如果中國麻煩纏身的金融系統真的觸礁，這些寫字樓中的一些恐怕要在很長時間內空置了。