智商可預測，未來試管嬰兒將可選擇“最聰明的”胚胎
如果有一天，你可以選擇生育一個小“愛因斯坦”，也可以生育一個智商普通的孩子，你會做出什麼樣的選擇？據科學家預計，未來10年內，人類將可以使用試管嬰兒技術選擇“最聰明”的胚胎。
Genetics research, conceptual artwork. CHINA DAILY
Couples undergoing IVF treatment could be given the option to pick the “smartest” embryo within the next 10 years, a leading US scientist has predicted.
據美國一名權威科學家預計，未來10年之內，做試管嬰兒的夫婦將能夠選擇“最聰明”的胚胎。
IVF：in vitro fertilization 體外受精聯合胚胎移植技術，又稱“試管嬰兒”
Stephen Hsu, senior vice president for research at Michigan State University, said scientific advances mean it will soon be feasible to reliably rank embryos according to potential IQ, posing profound ethical questions for society about whether or not the technology should be adopted.
美國密歇根州立大學主管科研的副校長徐道輝（斯蒂芬·徐）說，科學進步意味着人類不久就能夠對胚胎的潛在智商給出可靠的評分，這項技術是否應該使用將是一個深刻的社會倫理問題。
Hsu’s company, Genomic Prediction, already offers a test aimed at screening out embryos with abnormally low IQ to couples being treated at fertility clinics in the US.
徐道輝的基因組預測公司已經爲在美國不孕不育診所接受治療的夫婦提供了一項檢測服務，旨在篩查出智商異常低的胚胎。
“Accurate IQ predictors will be possible, if not the next five years, the next 10 years certainly,” Hsu told the Guardian. “I predict certain countries will adopt them.”
徐道輝對《衛報》記者說：“準確的智商預測是可能的，即使不是未來5年內，那麼在未來10年內也肯定可以。我預計一些國家會採納這項技術。”
The prospect of a new generation of genetically selected babies has prompted concerns about unintended medical consequences and the potential for deepening existing social inequalities. The science underpinning the claim that intelligence can be meaningfully predicted by genetic tests is also contentious.
新一代基因選擇嬰兒的前景引發了人們對於意外醫療後果和現有社會不平等可能加劇的擔憂。基因檢測能夠有效預測智商的科學技術也引發了爭議。
contentious [kən'tenʃəs]：adj.有異議的，引起爭論的
Peter Donnelly, a professor of statistical science at the University of Oxford, said any such IQ predictions should be treated with “huge caution”, adding: “I have grave misgivings about it on ethical grounds. I think it’s a really bad idea.”
牛津大學統計學教授彼得·唐納利說，應該“十分謹慎”地對待此類智商預測。他說：“出於倫理原因，我對此非常擔憂。我認爲這是一個非常糟糕的想法。”
Since the 1990s, couples undergoing IVF have been able to screen their embryos for mutations in single genes that cause serious diseases such as cystic fibrosis, as well as conditions like Down’s syndrome, caused by chromosome abnormalities.
自上世紀90年代以來，接受試管受精的夫婦已經能夠對他們的胚胎進行篩選，以發現單個基因的突變，這些突變會導致嚴重的疾病，比如囊性纖維化，以及染色體異常導致的唐氏綜合徵等。
chromosome ['krəʊməsəʊm]：n.染色體
Many other traits, including height, physical appearance, intelligence and disease susceptibility, are known to be partly heritable. But because the genetic component is spread thinly over hundreds or even thousands of DNA regions, it has previously been impossible to screen for these traits.
許多其他特徵，包括身高、外貌、智力和疾病易感性，都被認爲是部分遺傳的。但由於遺傳組分稀疏地分散在數百甚至數千個DNA區域，以前不可能對這些特徵進行篩選。
In the past decade, as vast genetic databases have been established, this picture has changed. Through analyzing many genes, each making a tiny contribution, it has been possible to calculate what are called polygenic risk scores, which give a person’s likelihood of getting a particular disease or having a certain trait.
在過去的十年裏，隨着大量基因數據庫的建立，這種情況已經發生了改變。通過分析大量基因，每個基因都做出了微小的貢獻，就有可能計算出所謂的多基因風險評分，即一個人患某種特定疾病或具有某種特徵的可能性。
polygenic[,pɔli'dʒenik]：adj.多基因的
Genomic Prediction is the first company to take embryo screening into this grey area of risk forecasting, offering to alert couples if an embryo has an “outlier” score for risk of cancers, diabetes, heart disease, dwarfism or low IQ.
基因組預測公司是第一家將胚胎篩查納入風險預測這一灰色地帶的公司。如果胚胎在癌症、糖尿病、心臟病、侏儒症或智商低下等風險方面的評分“異常”，它就會提醒做篩查的夫婦。
outlier ['aʊtlaɪə]：n.（統計）異常值
Prediction for IQ is not good enough to give a reliable ranking, but Hsu said that knowing an embryo has a low score could still be desirable.
智商預測目前還不足以給出可靠的評分，但徐道輝表示，如果一個胚胎的智商評分較低，人們可能還是很想知道。
“Maybe the bottom 1% embryo will grow up to be a great person … even be a scientist, but the odds are against it,” he said. “I honestly feel if we can calculate that score and find a real negative outlier there’s an ethical responsibility for us to report that.”
徐道輝說：“也許評分最低的1%的胚胎長大後會成爲一個優秀的人……甚至成爲一名科學家，但這種可能性很小。我真的覺得，如果我們能計算出這個評分，發現它低得十分異常，那麼我們就有道德責任予以告知。”
The company projects that once high-quality genetic and academic achievement data from a million individuals becomes available, expected to be within five to 10 years, it will be able to predict IQ to within about 10 points.
該公司預計，在5至10年內，一旦100萬人的高質量基因和學術成就數據可用，它將能夠預測智商，誤差在10分以內。
Hsu is reticent about whether screening for high intelligence would be ethically justified, saying: “Let me just decline to answer that at the moment.”
徐道輝不願評論高智商篩查是否符合倫理標準，說“目前我拒絕回答這個問題”。
reticent ['retɪs(ə)nt]：adj.沉默的；有保留的
In some countries, such as Singapore, there is likely to be a high level of public acceptance and demand for such tests, he suggested. “I think the overwhelming majority would say yes, absolutely, parents should be allowed to do that,” he said. “Before you write your piece, you might just want to think that a billion people on the other side of the world might have a different view.”
徐道輝說，在一些國家，比如新加坡，公衆對此類檢測的接受度和需求可能會很高。他說：“我認爲絕大多數人肯定會贊成允許父母這樣做。在你寫這篇報道之前，也許應該想想地球另外一端的10億人可能有不同的看法。”
Whether such tests will become available in the UK would depend on approval from the Human Fertilization and Embryology Authority (HFEA).
這種檢測方法能否在英國實施將取決於英國人工授精與胚胎學管理局的批准。
“If the HFEA decides that it’s not right for the UK, I will respect that,” Hsu said, but predicted that “rich people from the UK will fly to Singapore” if they are unable to get the tests locally.
他說:“如果英國人工授精與胚胎學管理局認爲這對英國不合適，我會尊重這個決定。”但他預測，如果英國富人無法在當地進行這項檢測，“他們會飛到新加坡去做的。”
Some in the UK take the view that prospective parents have a right to access such tests. “I don’t think people should be deprived of that knowledge,” said Prof Simon Fishel, the founder of Care Fertility.
在英國，一些人認爲未來的父母有權進行此類檢測。生育關懷組織的創始人西蒙•費舍爾教授說:“我認爲不應該剝奪人們的這種知情權。”
Fishel questioned whether there is any ethical difference between picking an embryo ranked highest for IQ or sending a child to a private school. “What’s wrong with ranking an embryo if you can rank a child?” he said. “I think there are plenty of people who’d choose embryo Oxford [rather] than embryo A-level failure.”
費舍爾質疑挑選智商最高的胚胎和送孩子去私立學校之間是否存在倫理上的差異。“如果你能給孩子評分，那給胚胎評分又有什麼錯呢？”他說。“我認爲有很多人會選擇未來能考取牛津的胚胎而不是無法通過英國中學高級水平考試的胚胎。”
In practice, though, couples often have only a few embryos to choose from. And there are concerns about unintended consequences. For instance, there is some evidence linking higher polygenic scores for academic ability to higher likelihood of autism.
但實際上，夫婦們通常只有幾個胚胎可供選擇。此外，人們還擔心會出現意想不到的後果。例如，有證據表明，學術能力的多基因得分越高，患自閉症的可能性就越大。
The technology is controversial, but that does not mean it will not gain acceptance in the future, Hsu said, drawing parallels with the reaction to IVF in its early days.
徐道輝說，這項技術存在爭議，但這並不意味着它在未來不會被接受，這與早期人們對體外受精的反應類似。
“The IVF pioneers … were called monsters, Frankenstein doctors; it was predicted that these babies would have health problems,” he said. “I am actually reassured by that. IVF is completely normalized now. Everyone who is pointing their finger at [Genomic Prediction] now should go back and read those articles.”
他說：“試管嬰兒的先驅被稱爲怪物，弗蘭肯斯坦醫生。當時人們預測這些嬰兒會有健康問題。實際上，我對此很放心。試管受精現在已經完全正常化。現在，所有指責（基因組預測）的人都應該回去讀讀那些文章。”
