美國應主動帶動碳排放交易市場

Whether you are suffering from another hosepipe ban in Nevada, or hitting deeper potholes in Chicago, global warming is affecting millions of Americans.
無論是因內華達州再次出臺的軟管禁令（hosepipe ban，指禁止在水龍頭上接橡膠軟管爲花園澆水、灌游泳池等——譯者注）而倍感不便，還是在芝加哥街頭撞上某個比往常更深的地陷坑，數百萬美國人都體會到了全球變暖的影響。

Evidence of its impact is steadily mounting – as is the US public’s awareness. Yet the will to take tough decisions is missing. Next month President Barack Obama’s administration will issue regulations to curb carbon emissions from US power plants. With Congress out of the picture, executive action is better than nothing. Yet unless the US can show it is serious about putting a price on carbon, it will have little chance of bringing the rest of the world along. The deadline is next year’s climate change summit in Paris. It is vital the US shores up its credentials before then.
顯示全球變暖影響的證據還在不斷累積，美國公衆對這個問題的認知也在不斷加深。不過，依然沒有誰願意來做出艱難的決定。巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)政府下月將推出限制美國電廠碳排放的規定。在國會(Congress)缺席的情況下，行政部門能採取一些行動聊勝於無。然而，除非美國能證明自己對碳排放定價是認真的，否則美國幾乎不可能帶動世界其他地區效仿。最後期限是明年的巴黎氣候變化峯會。美國趕在那個期限之前建立信譽至關重要。

The developing world will undoubtedly suffer a bigger fallout from global warming than most of the west. Countries such as Bangladesh confront the spectre of submergence while China, India and others are directly threatened by the retreat of the Himalayan glaciers. With or without US leadership, it is in their interests to take action.
全球變暖讓發展中世界受到的影響，無疑比大部分西方世界受到的影響更大。孟加拉等國籠罩在被淹沒的恐懼中，而中國、印度等國則直接受到喜馬拉雅山冰川消融的威脅。無論有沒有美國的領導，採取行動應對這一問題都符合這些國家的利益。

Yet this week’s US climate change report underlines the growing price Americans are paying at home. The report shows that average US temperatures have risen by almost 2 degrees centigrade since 1895 with most of it taking place over the past four decades. The incidence of drought, big hurricanes and unusually heavy rainfall has soared.
然而本週美國的氣候變化報告凸顯出，這一問題讓美國人在本土付出的代價也越來越高了。報告顯示，自1895年至今，美國的平均氣溫上升了近兩攝氏度，其中大部分升幅發生在過去40年中。旱災、颶風以及反常暴雨的發生頻率也大大增加。

So too has the price of dealing with the consequences. It cost more than $60bn to clean up after Hurricane Sandy in 2012 – a storm that nearly submerged large tracts of New York City. Now the US is spending billions more to upgrade its tidal barriers. Meanwhile, the cost of water in the drought-prone southwest keeps rising.
救災成本也大幅上漲。2012年的桑迪颶風(Hurricane Sandy)過後，清理成本超過了600億美元。那場颶風讓紐約市許多地區幾乎被淹沒了。如今美國正拿出數十億美元來加固防浪堤。與此同時，在容易發生旱災的美國西南部，水的成本不斷上漲。

Yet Washington still refuses to act on the principle that prevention is cheaper than cure. Part of its reluctance comes from the boiling frog syndrome. Most Americans accept that global warming is happening. Yet they chafe when confronted with the higher bills they would have to pay to avert it. In a recent Gallup poll, voters ranked tackling climate change last out of 15 priorities. In 2009, Mr Obama tried and failed to push through a cap and trade bill that would have put a price on carbon. Politics makes it futile for him to go through Congress again in the near future. His only options are to use the White House bully pulpit to galvanise public opinion and deploy his executive powers to raise the cost of fossil fuel consumption. He has plenty of scope to go further on both.
儘管如此，華盛頓方面仍然拒絕按照預防比治療更便宜的原則來採取行動。這種不情願部分源於“溫水中的青蛙”症候羣。大多數美國人接受全球確實在變暖的觀點。但當他們看到爲避免全球變暖、自己必須支付的更貴賬單，他們就開始憤憤不平了。蓋洛普(Gallup)最近的一項調查顯示，在15個優先事項中，投票者將解決氣候變化排在最末一位。2009年，奧巴馬曾試圖推動一項爲碳排放定價的“限額和交易”法案，但他的努力失敗了。眼下政局意味着，他近期再次向國會提交相關法案將會徒勞無功。他唯一的選擇就是，利用白宮“頭號講壇”的地位來刺激民意，並運用他的行政權來提高消費化石燃料的成本。他在兩方面都還有很大推進空間。

Last month, the Supreme Court upheld the Environmental Protection Agency’s authority to regulate carbon as a pollutant. Next month the EPA will issue new rules limiting power plant emissions. It should follow up with curbs on refineries, cement plants and other polluters. Rule-based economics is certainly less efficient than market signalling. But if the framework is intelligent – and avoids picking technological winners – it can simulate many of the benefits of an actual carbon market.
上月，美國最高法院的判決支持了國家環境保護局(Environmental Protection Agency)將二氧化碳作爲污染物來監管的權力。環保局下月將推出新規，限制電廠的碳排放。該局應該接着推出對精煉廠、水泥廠和其他污染者的限制。用法規來改變人們的經濟決策，效果肯定比市場信號要差。但如果法規框架設計明智（而不是選擇技術上較優的方案），那麼法規可以模擬真實碳排放市場的許多優點。

Mr Obama must also do a better job of educating the public. Unfortunately, US environmentalists are fixated with stopping the Keystone XL pipeline – a decision Mr Obama keeps postponing.
奧巴馬還必須更好地教育公衆。遺憾的是，美國環保主義者一門心思關注於阻止拱心石XL輸油管道項目(Keystone XL pipeline)的開工建設。奧巴馬一直推遲就這一問題做出決定。

In reality, Canadian oil sands will still arrive in the US by road and rail, and be exported to China and other markets. Mr Obama should approve the pipeline. But he should make it clear there will be an escalating cost to consumption of oil sands and other carbon-intensive fuels.
事實上，加拿大的油砂仍將通過公路和鐵路到達美國，也仍將向中國和其他市場出口。奧巴馬應批准那個輸油管道項目。但他也應明確表示，消費油砂和其他高碳排放燃料的成本將越來越高。

The White House lacks the power to set up a carbon market in the US – and the authority to tell other countries to do so. But the more Mr Obama acts as though a carbon market is inevitable, the sooner it is likely to happen.
白宮無權在美國建立碳排放交易市場，也無權指示好別的國家這麼做。但奧巴馬越是用行動表現得彷彿建立碳排放交易市場勢在必行，這件事很可能就會越早成真。