如何防止機器人搶走你的飯碗大綱
The robots are coming and they want your job. Savioke recently developed a three-foot tall SaviOne robot that replaces the human delivery of snacks and amenities to your hotel room. The robotic butler can navigate your room, make deliveries and even ride the elevator — all without sleeping or going to the bathroom. In addition, robots don’t quit their jobs, whereas the hotel industry, according to the American Hotel & Lodging Association, experiences staff turnover of around 50% in non-management staff.
機器人來了，而且想搶走你的工作。Savioke公司最近開發了一款三英尺高的機器人SaviOne，它可以代替服務員，向酒店房間送零食或洗漱用品。除了可以自動找到你的房間、送東西之外，它甚至還可以自行坐電梯，而且既不用睡覺也不用去洗手間。此外，機器人也不會辭職——據美國酒店業協會(American Hotel & Lodging Association)估算，在美國酒店業中，非管理崗位的員工流動率高達50%左右。
Moving beyond the hotel industry, Momentum Machines invented a burger-flipping robot that can produce a burger every 10 seconds. This robot replaces three full-time kitchen staff and takes up far less space, potentially able to reduce costs. Momentum Machines Co-Founder Alexandros Vardakostas recently said in an interview at Lemnos Labs that his robot “isn’t meant to make employees more efficient. It’s meant to completely obviate them.”
除了酒店業，Momentum Machines公司也發明了一款會烤漢堡的機器人，每10秒鐘就可以做一個漢堡包。該機器人可以代替三名全職廚房員工，佔據的空間也更少，有望降低成本。Momentum Machines公司的聯合創始人亞里山德羅斯o瓦爾達克斯塔斯最近在利姆諾實驗室(Lemnos Labs)接受採訪時稱，他的機器人“並不是爲了讓員工更有效率，而是要完全取代他們。”Both Savioke and Momentum Machines are early signs of the upcoming Technology Revolution. Spawned by advances in robotics, big data, cloud computing and mobile, the revolution could replace millions of jobs. If you recall, the Industrial Revolution was no different than what we will likely see in the future. In 1820, the UK employed approximately 240,000 cotton hand weavers. Within 40 years, 99% of those jobs vanished as a result of the mechanical loom.
Savioke和Momentum Machines的機器人，都是即將到來的科技革命的早期信號。拜機器人學、大數據、雲計算和移動技術的長足進步所賜，這次科技革命可能會取代千百萬人的工作。在這次革命中，我們看到的圖景可能與工業革命時期沒什麼不同。在1920年，英國企業僱傭的手工綿紡織工約爲24萬人。而隨着機械織布機的興起，不到40年，其中99%的工作崗位都消失了。
About half, 47%, of today’s jobs could be automated away over the next 20 years, according to a recent study by Oxford University. Following the Industrial Revolution during the early 1800s, new inventions created more than enough new work to replace the jobs that were dislocated. But given the ability of today’s technology startups to reach massive scale with minimal headcount, things very well might be different this time around. In 2012, Instagram reached 30 million users and was acquired by Facebook FB -3.35% for $1 billion — all with just 13 employees. By contrast, Kodak filed for bankruptcy in 2012 and employed 145,000 people during its peak.
牛津大學（Oxford University）最近的一項研究顯示，在未來20年中，現有工作的47%都有可能被自動化所取代。自19世紀早期的工業革命以來，各種新發明創造的新工作崗位，足以抵補那些失去的職業。但鑑於如今的科技創新企業能夠以最少的人數創造極大的成就，這次的情況可能會非常不一樣。比如在2012年，Instagram的註冊用戶達到3000萬人，並被Facebook出價10億美元收購——Instagram當時只有13名員工。相比之下，柯達公司（Kodak）於2012年申請破產，它在最高峯時曾擁有14.5萬名員工。Indeed, disruption is coming. So what should we do about it?
大顛覆的確就要到來了，那麼我們應該做些什麼呢？If history is any indication, some will push for protectionism, shielding certain jobs in order to preserve employment levels in the short-term. Over the next decade, 233,000 taxi drivers and 1.7 million truck drivers in the U.S. could be at risk of having their jobs automated away by driverless vehicles. Given that many cities have already attempted to block the expansion of Uber, we could experience similar tensions when driverless cars arrive. However, in the long-term, attempting to block innovation is short-sighted and makes countries less competitive relative to others who are willing to accept new, more efficient technologies.
如果以史爲鑑，有些人可能會推動保護主義，使某些工作不被自動化取代，以保持短期內的就業水平。在下一個10年裏，隨着無人駕駛汽車的發展，美國有23.3萬名出租車司機和170萬名卡車司機都要面臨失業的風險。現在美國的許多城市已經試圖封堵打車應用Uber，所以在無人駕駛汽車問題上，我們可能也會遇到同樣的反對聲浪。但在長期看，封鎖創新是一種短視行爲，而且會使國家失去競爭力，落於於那些樂於接受更高效的新技術的國家。Over the next two decades, the most pain will be felt by lesser-skilled workers most likely to lose their jobs to automation. As a result, the gap between the “haves and the have-nots” will widen. This could potentially create tension and fuel lobbying to increase the minimum wage. But like protectionism, raising the minimum wage could ultimately be counter-productive. Increasing minimum wage for hotel or fast-food employees, for example, could actually make companies more interested in automating away those positions if it actually saves companies more money.
在未來20年裏，那些非熟練技術工更有可能感受到被機器人奪走工作的痛苦。貧富差距會進一步加大。這有可能進一步加劇緊張局面，刺激更多人遊說提高最低工資。但是就像保護主義一樣，提高最低工資最終也可能起到反效果。比如提高酒店業和快餐業員工的最低工資，可能會進一步提高企業對自動化的興趣，因爲他們覺得這樣做無疑會給公司省更多的錢。Instead of protecting jobs or increasing the minimum wage, we should seriously consider improving America’s antiquated education system. Education is what saved the nation during the 19th century and it could be critical this time as well.
因此，與其推行就業保護主義、提升最低工資，我們還不如認真考慮應該如何改進美國過時的教育體系。在19世紀，正是教育拯救了這個國家。這一次，教育也同樣是決定性因素。According to MIT Economist David Autor, “By the late 19th century … many Americans recognized that farm employment was declining, industry was rising and their children would need additional education to earn a living.” The World Bank notes that between 1900 and 1940, the percentage of 14- to 17-year-olds enrolled in high school in the U.S. increased from 10% to 75%. As a result, millions of workers left farms and were able to obtain higher-paying jobs as the economy matured.
麻省理工學院（MIT）經濟學家大衛o奧特指出：“到19世紀末……很多美國人意識到，農業的就業率正在下降，工業就業率正在上升。而他們的孩子需要接受額外的教育才能夠養家餬口。”世界銀行也指出，在1900到1940年之間，美國14至17歲青少年的高中入學率從10%上升到75%。因此，隨着經濟的成熟，數百萬勞動者離開農場後，能夠獲得薪水更高的工作。But this time, we don’t need more schools, we need different schools. Schools will need to place a greater focus on skills that will enable the next generation to benefit from the upcoming technological wave instead of merely getting swept aside. In particular, robots are still horrible communicators and problem solvers. So schools should evolve to emphasize critical thinking and social skills. It is also highly unlikely that during the next couple decades robots will learn how to design and manage themselves, so schools should stress creativity and management skills.
但這一次，我們需要的不是更多的學校，而是不同的學校。學校需要投入更大精力，向下一代人傳授新的技能，使他們能在新的科技革命中受益，而不是“靠邊站”。特別需要指出的是，機器人的溝通和解決問題的能力依然很糟糕。所以，學校應該重點加強學生的批判式思維和社交能力。另外，在未來的一二十年，機器人大概也很難掌握設計和自我管理能力，因此，學校應該着重培養學生的創造力和管理技能。In addition to focusing on different skill sets, schools will need to teach students how to work with machines and other emerging technologies. Today, those who have conquered computers have given themselves a much greater chance of succeeding. Tomorrow, the same will be true as it pertains to robots and big data. In a recent paper, Autor observed that people often “overstate the extent of machine substitution for human labor and ignore the strong complementarities.” In 20 years, our success will not necessarily be driven by our quantitative skills or our work effort, but by how well we collaborate with robots.
除了重點傳授不同的技能，學校還應教會學生如何與機器和其它新興技術共同工作。如今，那些征服了電腦的人有更大的成功機會。而在未來，那些掌握了機器人和大數據的人也將是如此。奧特在最近發表的一篇論文中指出：人們“經常誇大了機器對人力的取代作用，忽視了它極強的補充作用。”在未來20年中，我們的成功不一定取決於我們的量化技能或努力程度，而是取決於能否很好地與機器人協同工作。Two years ago, a relative of mine was diagnosed with prostate cancer. Ironically, he is a talented urologist who has performed over 3,000 prostate cancer surgeries, but couldn’t operate on himself. When it came to choosing a doctor, he selected a surgeon who was arguably the best in the world at operating with the da Vinci Surgical System, a robotic surgical system. His physician’s skills were still as important as ever but the robot enabled his doctor to translate his hand movements into smaller, more precise incisions. Although the Technology Revolution will come with its share of challenges, like the Industrial Revolution, it will ultimately enable us to do our jobs better than before and solve problems that we can’t even fathom solving today.
兩年前，我的一個親戚被診斷出患有前列腺癌。諷刺的是，他自己就是一名傑出的泌尿科醫生，曾經做過3000多例前列腺癌手術，但是他沒法給自己手術。他在選擇醫生時，選擇了一名據說是最善於操作達芬奇外科手術系統(Da Vinci Surgical System，一種機器人手術系統)的外科醫生。他的醫術當然依然很重要，但是機器人能讓醫生的雙手進行更微小、更精確的切割操作。雖然像工業革命一樣，科技革命將給人類帶來挑戰，但機器人最終會幫助我們更好地完成工作，解決那些我們今天甚至無法解決的問題。（財富中文網）Ryan Feit is CEO and co-founder of SeedInvest, a New York City-based equity crowdfunding platform that connects investors with startups.
本文作者萊恩o費特是SeedInvest公司的CEO和聯合創始人，SeedInvest是紐約的一家連接投資人和創業公司的私募衆籌平臺。
