普京的敘利亞阿勒頗的棋局

News that Syrian rebel factions are negotiating with Russia in Turkey to relieve the siege of eastern Aleppo highlights a Middle East-wide trend whereby leading actors are looking to Moscow instead of the US. It also underlines the extent to which Bashar al-Assad, the improbable survivor of almost six years of civil war, is a pawn of his Russian and Iranian patrons.

有消息稱，敘利亞叛軍正在與俄羅斯在土耳其談判，以解除其在阿勒頗(Aleppo)東部地區受到的圍攻，這突顯出整個中東地區的一個趨勢——主要國家轉向俄羅斯而非美國求助。它還表明在近6年內戰中令人不可思議地活下來的巴沙爾.阿薩德(Bashar al-Assad)，在多大程度上成爲了俄羅斯和伊朗的馬前卒。

Syria has been centre stage in President Vladimir Putin’s reassertion of Russian influence in the Middle East, after his air force arrived in September last year to save the Assad regime. Since then, ferocious Russian bombing and the siege of rebel enclaves, alongside a string of offensives spearheaded by Lebanese, Iraqi and Afghan Shia fighters deployed by Iranian revolutionary guards, have expanded the rump state to defensible perimeters.

俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾.普京(Vladimir Putin)希望重獲俄羅斯在中東地區的影響力，在他去年9月派俄羅斯空軍前往敘利亞解救阿薩德政權之後，敘利亞就處於這種努力的核心。自那以來，俄羅斯對叛軍佔據的地區進行了猛烈的轟炸和圍困，再加上由伊朗革命衛隊部署的黎巴嫩、伊拉克和阿富汗什葉派武裝人員帶頭髮起了一系列攻勢，使阿薩德政府所剩地盤擴大到能夠抵禦進攻的邊界。

But Mr Putin has to think of what happens after the fall of rebel Aleppo. Russia has reached beyond tactical sallies against US hegemony in the Middle East and is reacquiring the onerous obligations of great power-dom.

但普京不得不考慮在攻佔叛軍佔領的阿勒頗之後將會出現的情況。俄羅斯不僅僅在戰術上對美國在中東地區的霸主地位發起了攻擊，它還在重新承擔起與大國地位相伴隨的艱鉅責任。

It is beyond dispute that US influence has declined in a region where it was long considered axiomatic that not a leaf stirred but Washington had decreed it. This began in 2003 with President George W Bush’s misconceived invasion and occupation of Iraq, a pitilessly public display of the limits of US power. It was accelerated by President Barack Obama’s tendency to shy away from admittedly hard choices, notoriously when in 2013 he backed off from punishing the Assad regime, after it crossed his “red line” and used nerve gas against civilians.

毋庸置疑，美國在中東地區的影響力下降了——人們曾長期認爲，中東處於美國的掌控之下。美國影響力下降開始於2003年喬治.W.布什(George W. Bush)欠考慮地入侵併佔領伊拉克，從而無情地公開暴露出美國實力有限。巴拉克.奧巴馬(Barack Obama)則加速了美國影響力的下降，他往往回避那些確實很艱難的抉擇，尤其是在2013年阿薩德政權跨過他設置的“紅線”、使用神經毒氣對付平民之後，沒有對之進行懲罰。

Anyone with aspirations to being a player in the Middle East now beats a path to Mr Putin. The list is replete with Washington’s historic allies: Israel and Egypt, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. Russia has forged working links with Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s irredentist prime minister, and Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, the military strongman who took power from Islamists in Egypt.

所有有意在中東地區有所作爲的國家現在都紛紛轉向普京求助。這些國家不乏華盛頓在歷史上的盟友：以色列和埃及、土耳其和沙特。俄羅斯加強了與以色列總理本雅明.內塔尼亞胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)和埃及總統阿卜杜勒.法塔赫.塞西(Abdel Fattah al-Sisi)的工作聯繫，前者奉行民族統一主義，後者是從伊斯蘭主義者手裏奪取了政權的軍事強人。

He has mended fences with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, president and paramount leader of Nato ally Turkey, and built a functioning relationship with Mohammed bin Salman, the young prince who in effect runs Saudi Arabia. Russia has also cultivated local factions. Khalifa Haftar, the Libyan general who controls the east of his fractured country, was just in Moscow. Mohammed Dahlan, the Abu Dhabi-based former Palestinian security chief with controversial international links, sees Mr Putin regularly.

他修復了與北約盟友土耳其的總統、最高領導人雷傑普.塔伊普.埃爾多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)的關係，並與沙特的實際掌權人、年輕的王儲穆罕默德.本.薩勒曼(Mohammed bin Salman)建立了運轉良好的關係。俄羅斯還扶植當地勢力。控制着軍閥割據的利比亞的東部地區的將軍哈利法.哈夫塔爾(Khalifa Haftar)上週二剛剛訪問了莫斯科。居住在阿布扎比、國際關係存在爭議的前巴勒斯坦安全事務部長穆罕默德.達赫蘭(Mohammed Dahlan)定期與普京見面。

But it is doubtful whether the Kremlin can partner simultaneously with Sunni and Shia, or with Turkey, Iran and Israel, in a region where it has rarely been more than a spoiler. Intrigue is rarely straightforward. Turkey, for example, says Mohammed Dahlan was in cahoots with the Islamist followers of Fethullah Gulen, the US-based preacher Ankara blames for the abortive military putsch in July.

但在俄羅斯過去只不過是一個攪局者的中東，它能否同時與遜尼派和什葉派、或者同時與土耳其、伊朗和以色列合作，存在疑問。中東地區陰謀詭譎。例如，土耳其表示，穆罕默德.達赫蘭與費特胡拉.居倫(Fethullah Gulen)的伊斯蘭追隨者勾結。居倫是居住在美國的流亡神職人員，土耳其指其策劃了今年7月未遂的軍事政變。

This is not the first time Russia has sat down with Syrian rebels and its willingness to do so again, on the verge of victory in Aleppo, may point to a new pragmatism. The Assad regime is dependent on Russian air power and Iran-marshalled foreign fighters. It simply does not have the manpower to police its post-Aleppo borders.

這並非俄羅斯首次與敘利亞叛軍坐下來談判，它在阿勒頗戰鬥即將勝利之際再次願意談判，可能表明了新的務實主義。阿薩德政權依賴俄羅斯空軍和伊朗組織的外國士兵。它根本沒有人力維持阿勒頗戰鬥結束後的邊界治安。

Mr Assad’s minority supporters have paid a heavy price to keep his clan in power, but it is increasingly others who are doing the fighting and dying. Iran has just admitted it has lost 1,000 combatants fighting for his regime; Hizbollah is thought to have lost more. Can this kind of external commitment be open-ended, or will Moscow and Tehran use their power over Mr Assad to push him towards compromise?

阿薩德的少數支持者爲維持其家族掌權付出了沉重代價，但爲其戰鬥和死亡的越來越多是其他人。伊朗剛剛承認，已有1000名士兵爲阿薩德政權犧牲。據信真主黨(Hizbollah)的死亡人數更多。這種外部承諾是無限的嗎？或者莫斯科和德黑蘭會向阿薩德施壓、迫使他妥協嗎？

An early signal would be if Russia forces the Assads to agree to the UN’s four-point humanitarian aid plan for Aleppo, allowing food and medicine to enter the stricken city and the evacuation of the sick and wounded. The armed groups have already signed.

一個早期信號將是，俄羅斯是否迫使阿薩德同意聯合國提出的阿勒頗四點人道主義援助計劃，允許食品和藥品進入戰火紛飛的阿勒頗，並讓病患傷者撤離。武裝組織已經簽署了協議。