新一輪全球經濟衰退可能提早到來範例

In business, as in life, good leaders hope for the best and plan for the worst. There's a reason that experts refer to the regular expansion and contraction of the economy as the business cycle.

商業中和生活中一樣，優秀的領導抱最好的希望，做最壞的打算。專家們稱經濟週期是經濟規律性的擴張和收縮是有原因。

Even producers of the most recession-proof products—toiletries, beer, funeral services—need to consider how rising and falling consumer sentiment will affect their bottom line.

即使是最抗經濟衰退的產品——洗漱用品、啤酒、殯葬服務——的供應商也需要考慮消費者情緒的起落對他們底線的影響。

Of course, timing the next downturn is easier said than done. So as we head into a new year, we reached out to the Fast Company Impact Council—a leadership group of 200 founders, executives, and creatives—to gauge how some of the smartest and most innovative people in business are thinking about a possible recession.

當然，預測下一次衰退說起來容易做起來難。因此我們在步入新一年的時候，聯繫了《快速公司》影響委員會（Fast Company Impact Council），以便獲悉商業中最聰明最富創新精神的一撥人是如何看待可能發生的經濟衰退的。這個委員會是由200名創始人、執行官和創意官組成的領導集團。

About 4 in 10 respondents told us they expect the global economy in 2020 to perform about the same. But remarkably, nearly 45% predicted that the next 12 months would be worse for business. Only 16% said that the global economy would be better.

大約四成的調查對象告訴我們，他們預計全球經濟在2020年與今年表現相同。但是令人驚訝的是，近45%的人預測，接下來的12個月對商業更加不利。只有16%的人說全球經濟將轉好。

Impact Council members were more like-minded about the timing of the next downturn. While 21% predicted a recession would hit in 2020, the majority (54%) said it would likely arrive in 2021, after the next presidential election. About 15% responded that the next recession would come in 2022. Only 1 in 10 said the economy would continue to grow until 2023 or later.

影響委員會的成員在預測下一次經濟衰退方面看法更加一致。雖然有21%的人預測，2020年將遭到經濟衰退的衝擊，但大部分人（54%）認爲經濟衰退可能會在2021年出現，也就是在下一次總統選舉後。約15%的人迴應說，下一次經濟衰退會在2022年到來。只有一成的人說，經濟將持續增長到2023年及之後。