俄經濟將陷衰退 普京面臨新挑戰

MOSCOW — President Vladimir V. Putin grew wildly popular by making Russians richer every year and by vowing to restore their country’s great power status. But now, with the government predicting Tuesday that the battered economy will fall into recession next year, that formula is in jeopardy.

莫斯科——弗拉基米爾·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)不僅讓俄羅斯人一年比一年富裕，而且誓言要重振俄羅斯的大國地位，這讓他獲得了很高的人氣。但是現在，這種做法恐怕快行不通了，因爲政府本週二預測，遭受重創的俄羅斯經濟明年將陷入衰退。

Every day brings a barrage of woeful economic news. World oil prices just hit a five-year low. The Russian ruble is down 40 percent against the dollar so far in 2014. Inflation is due to rise 9 percent this year and to continue climbing. Capital flight is expected to reach $128 billion.

每天都會出現一連串令人擔憂的經濟新聞。世界石油價格剛剛創下五年新低。從2014年初到現在，俄羅斯盧布兌美元的匯率跌幅已達40%。今年的通脹水平料將達到9%，而且還會繼續提高。外逃資本估計將達1280億美元（約合1萬億元人民幣）。

The Kremlin suffered the collapse of the Soviet state and a government default during previous extended declines in oil prices, so the changing fortunes potentially pose extreme challenges. Experts underscore, however, that the country is far more resilient now than in the 1980s or in 1998, the previous times of crisis, particularly its stout private sector.

上一次油價長期下跌時，克里姆林宮經歷了蘇聯的解體，以及政府的債務違約。所以當前命運的變遷可能會帶來嚴峻的挑戰。但是專家強調，與上世紀80年代或1998年上次危機發生時相比，現在的俄羅斯應對衝擊的實力更強，其強健的私營部門尤其如此。

Mr. Putin has already shelved planned megaprojects, like the South Stream pipeline to ship gas to southern Europe that was canceled on Monday and a high-speed railway from Moscow to Kazan, a city east of the capital.

普京已經擱置了一些原計劃實施的大型項目，比如將天然氣輸送到歐洲南部的南線(South Stream)管道項目，已於本週一取消。從莫斯科到其東面的城市喀山的一條高速鐵路項目也被擱置。

Some analysts say the changes may be felt in the policy area, where Mr. Putin may feel compelled to tone down his aggressive, anti-Western stance. But others worry that he may do just the opposite, saying that his need to divert attention from economic problems might inspire further nationalistic adventures abroad, akin to the annexation of Crimea.

一些分析師說，政策領域可能會出現一些變化，普京可能不得不淡化他強勢的反西方立場。但也有人擔心，他可能反其道而行之，因爲他需要把人們的注意力從經濟問題上轉移開，爲了達到這個目的，他可能會在海外進一步推動民族主義的冒險，就像吞併克里米亞那樣。

“It is a completely new reality for him,” said Sergei M. Guriev, a prominent economist who fled into exile last year, said of Mr. Putin. “Whenever Russia wanted the oil price to go up it has gone up. He has always been lucky, and this time he is not lucky.”

“這對他來說是一個全新的現實，”在評價普京時，去年逃亡的著名經濟學家謝爾蓋·古裏耶夫(Sergei Guriev)說，“每當俄羅斯希望石油價格漲上去，油價就會漲上去。普京一直很幸運，但這次他走黴運了。”

Russia is heavily dependent on oil, which constitutes some 60 percent of its exports. With the collapse in prices coinciding with severe economic turbulence caused by Western sanctions over destabilizing Ukraine, Mr. Putin risks losing the engine that was supposed to power Russia back onto the world stage.

俄羅斯對石油的依賴十分嚴重，石油在其出口額中佔60%左右。在油價大跌的同時，西方也因爲其破壞烏克蘭穩定的舉動，而對俄羅斯實施了制裁，於是該國出現了嚴重經濟動盪，普京可能會因此失去讓俄羅斯重新走上世界舞臺的推動力。

Financial experts say Russia’s most pressing problem is not the sinking ruble, despite its potential to prompt a run on the banks, nor the falling price of oil, although the annual budget was based on a price of $96 per barrel, which is now hovering around $70.

金融專家認爲，俄羅斯當前最緊迫的問題，既不是可能引發銀行擠兌的盧布貶值，也不是油價下降，儘管年度預算是基於96美元每桶的油價制定的，而這個價格現在徘徊在70美元左右。

“This is all peanuts compared to the financing crisis,” said Vladimir Milov, a former deputy energy minister turned opposition politician.

“與融資方面的危機相比，這些都是花生一樣的小問題，”弗拉基米爾·米洛夫(Vladimir Milov)說。他曾擔任能源部副部長，後來加入反對派陣營。

Nearly $700 billion is owed to Western banks, economists said, much of it by the giant state-run companies that constitute the heart of the Russian economy. But sanctions imposed by the United States and Europe over Russia’s annexation of Crimea and adventurism in southeastern Ukraine have blocked access to Western financing.

經濟學家表示，俄羅斯欠西方銀行近7千億美元債務，其中大部分是巨型國有企業欠下的，它們構成了俄羅斯經濟的命脈。由於俄羅斯吞併克里米亞、在烏克蘭東南部開展冒險行動，美國和歐洲對其實施了制裁，讓這些俄羅斯企業無法在西方融資。

Mr. Putin has yet to express publicly how he expects Russia to emerge from its financial problems. At a news conference last month, he addressed concerns about oil by saying that prices had been high enough in the first part of 2014 to finance much of the Russian budget, and that the country would just have to “wait and see” about next year.

對於俄羅斯怎樣才能挺過財政難關，普京尚未進行公開表態。不過在上月的新聞發佈會中，他談到了對油價的擔憂，他說2014年上半年的油價足夠高，可以支撐俄羅斯預算的很大一部分，他還說明年的形勢還需要“等等看”。

He also attempted to portray the large drop in value of the ruble as useful. “We used to sell by the dollar and get 32 or 35 rubles in return, but if you look at today’s exchange rate, we get 45, 47 or 48 rubles for every dollar’s worth of what we sell,” he said, and the ruble has reached 54 to the dollar since Mr. Putin spoke. “In that sense, budget revenue has even increased.”

普京還試圖把盧布的大幅貶值形容成好事。“我們之前賣出1美元，可以獲得32或35盧布，但以今天的匯率計算，我們賣出價值1美元的東西，可以獲得45、47甚至48盧布，”普京說。“從這個意義上說，預算收入甚至有所增加。”現在盧布兌美元匯率已經跌至54比1。

Vedomosti, the main business daily, published an excoriating editorial on Tuesday comparing Mr. Putin to President Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe, who the editorial said did basically nothing as the exchange rate there fell to four trillion Zimbabwe dollars for one American dollar.

週二，俄羅斯主要的商業日報《新聞報》(Vedomosti)發表了一篇措辭嚴厲的社論，把普京和津巴布韋總統羅伯特·穆加貝(Robert Mugabe)相提並論。社論說，在津巴布韋元兌美元匯率跌至4萬億比1的過程中，穆加貝基本上沒有采取任何行動。

While noting that Russia was in far better shape, the editorial said that “the biggest problem of Russian leadership is inability to admit mistakes.”

儘管該社論指出，俄羅斯的狀況比津巴布韋好很多，但“俄羅斯領導人最大的問題是不承認錯誤”。

“The economy is seriously ill, and the ruble rate is one of the indicators crying about the illness,” the editorial said. “Russia’s leadership refuses to admit there is an illness and pushes it into the depths.”

“俄羅斯經濟患上了重病，盧布匯率只是明顯病狀之一，”社論說。“俄羅斯領導人拒絕承認疾病的存在，導致病情越來越嚴重。”

Anton Siluanov, the Russian Minister of Finance, called the report predicting a recession a “preliminary assessment” and said it had not been approved by the entire cabinet. Mr. Siluanov also argued that the ruble is now undervalued after its long slide.

俄羅斯財政部長安東·西盧阿諾夫(Anton Siluanov)表示，預測俄羅斯經濟會出現衰退的報告是一個“初步評估”，並未獲得整個內閣的認可。西盧阿諾夫還認爲，盧布經過長時間貶值之後，目前估值偏低。

Mr. Putin is due to deliver his annual State of the Nation speech on Thursday, and there has been much speculation that he would announce more liberal or more centralized economic policies. Some economists think that the policy is essentially to wait out the sanctions, with the Kremlin anticipating that they will expire in a year and then all the financial problems will diminish.

普京將於週四發表每年一度的國情諮文講話，人們紛紛猜測，他是會宣佈更自由的經濟政策，還是集中化的經濟政策。鑑於克里姆林宮預料相關制裁會在一年後結束，之後所有財政問題都會減輕，所以一些經濟學家認爲，相關政策實質上是等待制裁結束。

The crisis will still be likely to force significant cuts in public spending. The Ministry of Economic Development, which publishes the government’s economic outlook, on Tuesday revised its forecast for 2015 to show a contraction of 0.8 percent, compared with a previous projection of 1.2 percent growth. Private assessments said there could be a drop of 2 percent.

危機依然可能會迫使公共開支大幅削減。週二，負責發佈官方經濟展望的經濟發展部(Ministry of Economic Development)修改了預測數字，稱俄羅斯經濟將於2015年收縮0.8%，而不是此前預計的增長1.2%。私營部門的預測顯示，該國經濟可能會收縮2%。

The setbacks have slowed or eliminated goals to achieve higher wages, better health care and cheaper housing, ambitions laid out in a series of populist decrees Mr. Putin signed on his first day in office for a third term, in 2012.

在2012年第三個總統任期開始的第一天，普京簽署了一系列民粹主義政令，其中羅列的宏偉目標包括提高工資、改善醫療、降低房價。然而，經濟上的挫折推遲了這些目標的達成，甚至讓它們成爲泡影。

The 11 decrees described a “transformation strategy for society” for his new six-year term, creating 25 million “highly productive” jobs, raising life expectancy to 74 years and raising the birthrate.

那11份政令爲普京新一屆的六年總統任期描繪了一項“社會轉型戰略”，期間將創造2500萬個“高生產率”就業崗位，使民衆的預期壽命提高到74歲，並提高出生率。

“Russia is in an economic crisis,” said Kirill Rogov, an independent economic analyst. “Of course, all those grand plans are irrelevant now.”

“俄羅斯陷入了經濟危機，”獨立經濟分析人士基里爾·羅戈夫(Kirill Rogov)說。“當然，所有那些宏偉計劃現在都沒意義了。”

It is impossible to predict whether the economic woes might inspire antigovernment demonstrations. There have been minor protests in Moscow by medical professionals denouncing the closure of about 28 clinics in the capital and the dismissal of 10,000 medical staff members.

還無法預測經濟困境是否會引發反政府示威。醫療工作者已經在莫斯科舉行了小規模抗議，譴責莫斯科大約28家診所被關停，1萬名醫療工作人員被解僱。

But the effects of the economic problems are just beginning. Once constituents like pensioners realize that the ruble is losing its purchasing power, they can be expected to demand raises so they can buy as much as they did previously. But the state companies will be first in line.

但經濟問題的影響纔剛開始顯現。如果退休職工等羣體意識到盧布的購買力正在減弱，他們預計會要求提高退休金，這樣才能買到之前那麼多東西。不過，首當其衝的是國有企業。

“The problem is that he cannot deliver on his economic promises, so he has to deliver on post-imperial nostalgia,” Mr. Guriev said of Mr. Putin. “He will say that we are not rich anymore, but we are at least feared.”

“問題是他無法兌現經濟方面的承諾，因此他不得不迎合后帝國主義的懷舊心態，”古裏耶夫在評價普京時說。“他會說，儘管我們不再富裕，但我們至少令人敬畏。”