選秀辣末好,咋沒辣末多球隊擺爛呢

As the calendar flips to December it’s not too early to think about the inevitability of tanking. Who should do it, who should wait, and who shouldn’t ever consider it. Flanns and Zillz discuss.

日曆一頁一頁地翻到了12月，一些球隊是時候考慮墊底的不可避免性了。那麼，哪些球隊應該開始着手墊底，哪些球隊還需要觀望，而哪些球隊應該放棄這種打算呢。Flanns 和Zillz將會就這一問題展開討論。

The end of November is here. As I wrote Monday, recent history suggests nine teams have pretty much already been knocked out of playoff contention. Yet, none of them are straight-up tanking.

眼看11月就要過去了，正如我週一寫的那樣，往年經驗表明，9支球隊很有可能已經被踢出季後賽地競爭行列了。然而，他們中沒有一支球隊表明要擺爛。

The Sixers are still slowly pivoting from a full-on institutional tank job to trying to be competitive, and the Suns are not expecting to be anything like good. So those two teams are quasi-tanking. They are, at least, not mad about losing.

76人隊在舉步維艱地從一支歷史悠久的全職擺爛大隊向一支有競爭力地隊伍轉變；太陽隊表現依舊不盡如人意。這兩支顯然是半墊底的球隊了。但是他們至少沒有對輸球抓狂。

Everyone else is trying to win. The Mavericks, all of 3-13, proudly announced that they won't tank. Yet, this is expected to be one of the best NBA drafts in years, with Markelle Fultz, Jayson Tatum, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Harry Giles, OG Anunoby, Ivan Rabb ... the list goes on!

而其他的隊伍還有在嘗試贏球的。小牛隊，在3-13的戰績面前，驕傲地說他們不會墊底。但是，明年被認爲是近年來最好的NBA選秀，有Markelle Fultz, Jayson Tatum, Lonzo Ball, Josh Jackson, Harry Gile, OG Anumoby, Ivan Rabb……等等優質球員。

By March, there's a real chance two or three of these prospects stick out as franchise players.

到了明年3月，這些明日之星中很有可能會有1-2個人脫穎而出，可以成爲球隊基石。

But none of these doomed NBA squads seem all that interested in setting themselves up for it. Should they be? Do we need more tanking this year, for these teams' own sake?

但是這些爛隊中沒有一支隊伍有擺爛的打算。他們這樣打算合適嗎？爲球隊着想，他們應該擺爛嗎？

I always judge the tank on actions and not by words. So, when teams say they're not in the tank and then run out a bunch of undrafted free agents while injuries to star players Linger, that's when you know it's on.

我判斷擺爛不是看言論而是看球隊動作的。所以，即使球隊說他們沒有擺爛，但是簽了一大批落選的自由球員，同時報告明星球員傷病纏身，這時候你就知道，他們是在擺爛了。

I empathize with the Mavs' position. It's tough to tell your fans that all hope is lost in November, and it's especially tough when you've got a Hall of Famer still on your roster.

這裏我得提一下小牛隊的處境。你很難在11月就告訴你球隊的球迷們球隊希望盡失，而你的名人堂球員仍舊在球員名單上時這一動作難度就更大了。

It's real easy for us to sit up here and tell teams that they need to go out there and lose a bunch of games. We're not the ones on the hook for ticket sales and advertisers.

我們坐在這裏指點江山，告訴那些球隊“你們沒指望了，趕緊輸球擺爛吧！”這是很容易的，但是我們並不是那些在爲球隊門票和廣告殫精竭慮的傢伙們。

But yeah, of course they should tank. And so should the Kings. Again. And the Heat. And the Magic. These are mediocre teams, at best, without high upsides even in the most optimistic projections.

但是，小牛隊的確應該擺爛。同樣的還有國王隊，還有熱火隊，還有魔術隊。這些都是中游的球隊，即使在最樂觀的預測中都沒有很高的排名。

There's a difference, though, in a team like Miami that's playing its young guys and trying to build a core while taking on losses, and, say, the Magic, who are trying to jump-start a stalled process.

但是他們擺爛的原因還是各不相同的。比如熱火隊，他們試圖通過輸球來鍛鍊隊中的年輕人並且確立一個核心；比如魔術隊，他們試圖擺脫停滯不前的過程。

I'm going to disagree on one team you mentioned: the Kings. The West is a bit shallow again, and Sacramento is in the mix for a playoff spot. It's not likely or anything, but so long as they are in the mix, they have to pull out almost all the stops to grab it.

其中有一支隊伍我不大讚同：國王隊。今年西部各隊實力都有所下降，並且薩克拉門託還在季後賽席位的競爭之列，倒不是說擺爛不可能，但是隻要他們還在這一隊列裏，他們就該全速前進，進入季後賽。

If you don't, you need to trade Boogie Cousins and all those veterans you signed over the past two offseasons.

否則，就應該交易考辛斯還有在過去的兩個賽季裏簽下的其他的老將了。

The Magic have bounced between average and bad, and they're currently on a downswing. Now Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic are coming off the bench and Mario Hezonja is buried.

魔術隊倒是可上可下，並且他們現在正在走下坡路。現在，阿龍-戈登和尼古拉-武切維奇被從板凳席上拉了出來並且馬里奧-海佐尼亞被雪藏了。

I get that Frank Vogel is experimenting to find a winning rotation, but this roster is so unbalanced and the best prospects aren't being put in great positions.

我猜弗蘭克-沃格爾正在試驗陣容以找到能贏球的輪換陣容。但是這個陣容實在是太不均衡了，最有希望的球員沒有被安置在最好的位置上。

I mean, is it worth to be a No. 8 seed with Serge Ibaka and Jeff Green leading the way? Maybe it is. This all just seems awfully backwards.

我是說，讓一個9號秀同伊巴卡和傑夫格林這樣帶隊真的沒問題嗎？可能吧。只是從之前糟糕的表現上來看……

The thing about the Mavericks is that this is not at all how Dirk should go out. That team has been so solid his entire career. To have a busted season now is painful. Maybe he ought to have joined Kobe, KG, and Big Fundamental last summer.

而關於小牛這支球隊，問題並不全是司機該怎麼讓位。在老司機的整個職業生涯中，這一直是一直有實力的球隊。德克今年這樣支離破碎的賽季實在令人痛苦。或許下個夏天他就會加入科比、KG和大基本功先生的隊伍中去。

Fair enough. Let's put the Kings in the “maybe” file. I'll drop the Nuggets in there, as well, as they are in basically the same place as a franchise, give or take some dysfunctional elements. The Wizards have to go in there, too, much as I am down on them at the moment.

你說的有道理。那我們就把國王隊歸到“有可能”的那一檔裏吧。同樣我會把掘金隊也歸到這一檔，鑑於他們球隊戰績相近，且都或放走或簽約了某些功能失調的球員。奇才隊也會被我歸到這一檔，到目前爲止我還是不看好他們。

I'm not worried about Philly, Phoenix, or Minnesota. They're young, they're rebuilding. If they make strides, great. If not, take another high pick. The Nets are the Nets and we should talk about them in a minute.

我倒是並不擔心費城、鳳凰城和明尼蘇達的球隊。他們隊伍都很年輕，都在重建的路上。如果他們能夠取得進步，那很好，就算沒有，他們也能獲得高順位的選秀權。而籃網隊則是另一個故事了，我們稍後會討論到他們。

The Magic are the single-most mystifying team in this entire exercise. They make little sense on paper or on the court.

魔術隊是所有隊伍中最迷的哪一個。不論從紙面上看還是從球場表現來看，他們這樣的隊伍都毫無意義。

They need more talent. Full stop. The best avenue for attracting talent for them has always been the draft.

這支隊伍需要更多的天賦，他們需要大修。對魔術而言，最能吸引天賦到來的方式一直以來都是選秀。

So, yeah, I think they should tank and they might even be able to get some good value for Ibaka in a trade even if it would be a really quick about-face. God they're weird.

所以，是的，我認爲他們應該果斷墊底甚至交易伊巴卡以換取更多的價值，儘管這變臉來得有點快。唉，天啊，這支隊伍實在太詭異了。

As for Dirk, nobody should ever go out the way they do, but it happens all the time. In some ways, maybe it's easier if the reckoning is this painful.

至於德克，我認爲沒有人應該曲意逢迎，但是總有人會這麼做。從某種程度來說，如果球隊處境如此令人痛心，或許擺爛會來得更輕鬆一些。

The Wizards need to surge ASAP if they want to stay in this. We saw what happened last year when they waited too long to get it together.

奇才隊如果想要留在強隊之列，需要儘快給球隊動手術。我們已經看到了他們一直以來期待的全員奇才是怎樣的水準。

Scott Brooks gets leeway as he learns his roster, and injuries continue to play too big a role. But I just can't fathom why this team is so much worse than the playoff team from a couple years back. The other piece is that it's unlikely the Wizards can conceivably be bad enough to get a top-five pick.

斯科特-布魯克斯教練在看到他的球員名單後就知道了他執教的退路有多大了，傷病一直以來都是球隊裏的大佬。但是我還是捉摸不清爲什麼這支球隊比以前的那支季後賽球隊差那麼遠。另一方面，奇才不可能差到以至於會得到前5的順位吧。

I wonder if the Pelicans are in that position, too. It looks like their highest Brow-era pick will be Buddy Hield. That's not optimal.

我其實好奇鵜鶘隊會不會也會到這一地步。目測布朗時代最高順位的新秀就是巴迪-希爾德了，這可不理想。

I'm assuming they'll end up around the No. 10 pick at this point; it's hard to get an instant franchise player that low, and New Orleans doesn't have all the time in the world.

就目前來看，我覺得他們大概會在第十順位，在這麼低的順位想要得到一個立即能夠成爲球隊建隊基石的新秀可不容易，並且留給鵜鶘隊出成果的時間不多了。

But with Jrue Holiday back and Anthony Davis putting up historic numbers, they aren't going to be bad enough to get a Fultz or Jackson. Why couldn't last year's draft class be this good?

但是隨着朱迪-霍勒迪的迴歸和安東尼-戴維斯打出歷史級別的數據，他們不會差到以至於能夠得到上邊提到的Fultz，Jackson之流。去年的選秀怎麼就沒那麼好呢！

There's a crucial element in team building called planning that often seems to elude those franchises that are stuck in the mud.

對於在泥潭裏掙扎的球隊，有一樣建隊過程中關鍵的東西一直誘惑着他們，那就是建隊計劃。

We should stipulate at this point that neither of us have any idea how good this draft is going to be because the college season is barely underway. It sure looks nice, what with all those freshmen stacked up together in the lottery.

我們首先得明白我們所有人都不知道這次選秀會怎麼發展，畢竟大學聯賽還在進行。但當所有的這些新鮮的血液都齊聚樂透區，這看起來當然美如畫。

My hunch is that this draft will look pretty good by March and will be much better than last year's, which was one of the most underwhelming in recent memory. New Orleans and Washington both need some direction, and soon.

我的預感是到了3月份，今年的應考新秀們就會看起來很棒，並且會遠比去年要好，去年是近幾年來最不被看好的一年。新奧爾良和華盛頓都需要一個明確的方向，並且他們不久就會做出各自的選擇。

I was waiting for you to bring up the Nets’ situation, so fine, I'll do it here. Jeremy Lin's been out for weeks with a hamstring injury. They're the only team tanking correctly and they're not actually tanking!

其實我一直都在等你提到籃網隊的處境，既然你沒說，那就我來說吧。林書豪已經因腿筋受傷缺陣幾周了。他們是唯一有擺爛權利但是不擺爛的球隊！

It will be interesting to see which direction they go at the trade deadline. They have a handful of solid players along with Brook Lopez.

在交易截止日到來前，看清楚他們會往哪個方向走這件事將會十分有趣。他們有很多靠得住的球員團結在布魯克-洛佩茲身邊。

They have no reason to tank thanks to the pick swap with the Celtics, but they might be able to pick up some nice consolation draft prizes from contenders looking to make a move.

感謝和凱爾特人的選秀權交換，他們沒有理由擺爛。他們或許會從參選球員中選到一個最佳安慰獎以推動球隊前行。

There are a couple of other picks in play this year. There's the Lakers pick to Philly (top-three protected), a Memphis one to Denver (top-five protected), and the infamous Sacramento choice to Chicago (top-10 protected) that Philly actually controls because Sam Hinkie will have revenge on us all.

今年選秀中還有很多選秀權交換的情況，有湖人給費城的前三保護的選秀權，有孟菲斯給丹佛的前五保護的選秀權，還有那個無恥的薩克拉門託給芝加哥的前十保護的選秀權（然而費城球隊會控局的，他們的前總經理山姆-辛基會來複仇的）。

Ah yes, the other reason Sacramento shouldn't tank: Philadelphia has the option to swap picks with them this year. It's actually impossible for the Kings to get the No. 1 pick because of that, and it hurts their chances at a top-three pick overall.

是的，另一個薩克拉門託不該墊底的原因就是：費城今年有權和他們交換選秀權。因此，國王隊完全沒可能得到狀元籤，而且他們得到前三籤位的可能性也很低。

The Bulls get the Kings' pick if it falls outside the top 10, so it's better for the Kings to be a bottom-10 team than to just miss the playoffs in terms of team-building.

而如果國王隊籤位掉出前10的話公牛隊又會得到他們的籤，所以在不妨礙球隊重建的情況下，國王隊不僅僅是不能進入季後賽，最好還是在倒數前十的隊列中。

The Kings also still owe a future first (unprotected in 2019 at worst) to Philly for the honor of being able to sign Rajon Rondo, Kosta Koufos, and Marco Belinelli. Talk about a team with no damn plan.

國王隊由於簽約拉簡-朗多，科斯塔-庫佛斯和馬可-貝利內裏，實際上還欠費城一個未來首輪籤（無保護，最遲2019年）。傳說中的無計劃重建隊啊。

The Nets should really feel free to tank out if only to get assets for the players who aren't integral to culture change and won't be on the next very good Brooklyn team. That means Brook Lopez, basically. The market on him is weird, but presuming it exists, it should be explored.

網隊我認爲倒是可以輕鬆舒適地擺着爛，除非是想給那些沒有融入球隊文化，並且明年不會在隊中地球員增加身價。對，我說的就是布魯克-洛佩茲。他存在的交易價值很詭異，但是我們假設它存在的話，我們就該充分利用他身上的價值。

The need to rebuild supersedes the desire to not give Boston another great pick. That hole has already been dug. Time to crawl out the only way you can: slowly, through smart draft picks, trades, and signings.

網隊重建的慾望已經超越了給波士頓另一個高順位籤的不情願。大坑已經挖好，想要從坑裏爬出來，你能做的只有：一步一步地，挑出合適的新秀，交易球員，以及簽約。

Am I tempting fate by wondering if the Lakers end up in this conversation within a couple weeks? They'd have to go on a truly epic slide to be bad enough to keep their draft pick at this rate (top-three protected to Philly) but I think the question is whether they should continue to build slowly around this core or flip one or two of the young dudes for a star.

我冒死地想一想，湖人隊在幾周後會不會也加入這一陣列呢？照目前這情況，他們必須打出史詩級別爛地比賽才能留住他們的選秀權（給費城的前三保護籤位），問題取決於他們是會圍繞現有陣容繼續緩慢地重建呢還是爲了得到下一個巨星扔掉一兩個年輕球員呢。

Rolling ahead with a team that's .500 through November isn't at all tanking — this is seriously a potential playoff team — but it's the same type of conversation the rebuilding squads are having. Leverage assets and playing time to win more now, or stay focused on sustainability?

這支在11月有着過半勝率的不斷進步的球隊完全不是墊底球隊，這是一支嚴格意義上的可能的季後賽球隊，但是就像所有重建中的球隊都會討論的那樣，是靠現有球員和上場時間來換取當下的勝利呢，還是更關注於可持續性的發展呢？

For once, the Lakers are in good spot and don't have to rush into anything. Take some time. See what they have. They're not making the playoffs with that defense, but that's not really the point of this season anyway.

這一次，湖人隊處境不錯，而且不需要趕着去做什麼事，給他們點時間，看看他們到底會怎樣。用這樣的防守質量他們很難進入季後賽，但是這並不是這個賽季的重點。

They're developing a core and sorting through roles. Because they're the Lakers, there remains the possibility that a solid free agent or two will look their way.

他們在培養核心球員，尋求合適的角色球員。他們可是湖人隊啊，對他們而言，很有可能會有一到兩個有實力的自由球員主動投懷送抱。

Maybe not a supernova player, but a good one who could get them right back on solid footing more quickly than these other teams we're discussing. Play out the season, pay off your debt, and move forward without that hanging over your head.

或許不會是一個超新星，但是會有好球員快速地把他們拉回正軌，比我們之前討論的其他隊伍都要快。打完這個賽季，還完之前的債，然後就可以瀟灑甩頭，大步向前了。

The other issue with tanking is Philly, Phoenix, and Brooklyn are all bad teams. It's going to be hard to outflank those outfits.

對於像費城、鳳凰城和布魯克林這樣的爛隊而言，另一個問題在於他們很難籠絡到好的球隊拼圖。

Indeed. That's an understated benefit of Philly tanking so hard in recent years: they are so bad it disincentives other clubs from tanking because they'll struggle to be as bad as the Sixers. The Mavericks are in the mix, at least.

這確實是的。不過費城隊近年來如此努力地墊底的一個被忽略的好處是：他們是如此地爛，以至於這會讓其他競相墊底的球隊產生挫敗感，因爲他們很難做到和76人一樣爛。在76人面前，小牛隊至少只能算是中等水平的爛。

They should be. We agree on that.

這就真相了，我同意。

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