穆迪下調評級凸顯中國面臨的挑戰

Less than two weeks after China said it would open its domestic market to US rating agencies, Moody’s cut its credit rating for the first time in a quarter of a century.

就在中國表示會向美國評級機構開放國內市場不到兩週後，穆迪(Moody's)在25年來首次調降了中國的信用評級。

It cited financial and economic risks flagged in recent months by Chinese officials, who were nonetheless quick to criticise the move. There followed automatic Moody’s downgrades of 26 state-owned enterprises with ratings tied to the government’s.

該機構提到了最近幾個月中國官員曾指出的金融和經濟風險，不過後者很快對穆迪此舉提出了批評。之後，穆迪自動下調了26個評級與中國政府掛鉤的國有企業的評級。

But while Moody’s decision yesterday will complicate efforts to attract foreign investors to the third-largest bond market, investors said it was unlikely to have a significant impact.

不過，儘管穆迪昨天的決定將加大吸引外國投資者進入中國這一全球第三大債市的複雜性，投資者表示此舉不太可能產生重大影響。

The immediate reaction on China’s bond market was limited because domestic investors, which dominate, pay scant attention to foreign ratings. After a surge at the open, yields on benchmark five-year government bonds returned to 3.8 per cent.

中國債市的即時反應十分有限，原因是占主導地位的國內投資者很少注意國外評級。在一開始飆升之後，基準的五年期國債收益率又回落到3.8%。

Foreign penetration remains tiny, with overseas investors owning about Rmb424bn ($61.5bn) of government bonds at the end of April, equal to just 4 per cent of the outstanding total, according to China Central Depository and Clearing.

根據中國中央國債登記結算公司(China Central Depository and Clearing Corporation)的數據，境外投資者的滲透率依然很低，4月底他們持有的國債約爲4240億元人民幣（合615億美元），只相當於國債總餘額的4%。

But that is expected to change as Beijing takes steps to open the market to foreign capital, including a “bond connect” scheme allowing foreign investors to buy through Hong Kong brokers.

不過，隨着中國政府採取包括“債券通”(bond connect)機制在內的措施、向外國資本開放市場，這種局面預計會發生改變。債券通是一種能讓外國投資者通過香港經紀商買入債券的機制。

Luke Spajic, head of Pimco’s emerging Asia portfolio in Singapore, noted Moody’s simultaneous decision to soften its China outlook from “negative” to “stable”. “This downgrade does not really derail China’s inevitable integration of bonds and equities with global capital markets,” he said. “That’s a secular story. A punchier move would have been to keep a negative outlook.”

太平洋投資管理公司(Pimco)駐新加坡的新興亞洲投資組合主管盧克?斯帕伊奇(Luke Spajic)指出，穆迪同時還做出了軟化其對中國展望的決定，將其從“負面”調整爲“穩定”。他說：“這次下調並未真正擾亂中國債市和股市與全球資本市場不可避免的整合過程。這是一個長期過程。假如穆迪保持負面展望，打擊會更重一些。”

Many sovereign wealth and pension funds have mandates that require them to invest in bonds above a certain rating. The downgrade puts China’s sovereign rating on a par with those of Israel, Saudi Arabia and the Czech Republic.

許多主權財富基金和養老基金所受委託要求它們須投資於高於特定評級的債券。這次評級下調，令中國的主權評級與以色列、沙特阿拉伯和捷克相當。

China’s non-financial corporate debt is about 170 per cent of GDP, or about $18.9tn, according to the Bank for International Settlements.

根據國際清算銀行(Bank for International Settlements)的數據，中國的非金融性企業債務約爲國內生產總值(GDP)的170%，達到約18.9萬億美元。

Moody’s action underscores the possibility that if US agencies start rating local bonds, a two-track system will result in which local and foreign agencies apply different standards.

穆迪的舉措凸顯出這樣一種可能性：一旦美國評級機構開始爲中國國內債券評級，將導致一種中國國內評級機構和外國評級機構採取不同評級標準的雙軌系統。

Dagong Global Credit Rating, one of the four main domestic rating agencies, has never rated China below the US, Japan or Britain. It downgraded the US further in 2010 and 2013

中國四家主要國內評級機構之一大公國際資信評估公司(Dagong Global Credit Rating)，從未令中國的評級低於美國、日本或英國。該公司曾在2010年和2013年進一步下調過美國的評級。

The unhappy response of the finance ministry raises the possibility that foreign agencies could face pressure if they issue a high-profile downgrade of a national champion. Alternatively, foreign agencies could find themselves unable to attract business if bond issuers, which pay for ratings, do not want to face tougher standards.

中國財政部對穆迪此舉不愉快的迴應，提高了這樣一種可能性——如果外國評級機構引人注目地下調一家國家冠軍企業的評級，可能會面臨壓力。又或者，外國評級機構可能會發現自己無法吸引到業務，原因是爲評級付錢的債券發行商不希望面對更嚴格的標準。

The ministry said Moody’s had not given the economy enough credit for its “steady upward momentum”, with first-quarter growth coming in at a higher than expected 6.9 per cent. “This year’s strong beginning shows the achievement of China’s reforms,” it said.

財政部表示，穆迪未能充分認識中國經濟的“穩中向好的發展態勢”。一季度中國GDP增長6.9%，高於預期。財政部表示：“中國經濟‘開門紅’充分顯示供給側結構性改革的效果正在不斷顯現。”

China’s bond market is already in turmoil. Banks and other investors are grappling with new regulations designed to limit the use of borrowed money for bond investment.

中國債市已經處於動盪之中。銀行及其他投資者正在竭力應對限制借錢投資債券的新監管規定。

As a result, the yield curve for government bonds inverted in mid-May after a short-term funding squeeze caused investors to dump short-dated paper.

結果是，由於短期資金收緊導致投資者拋售短期國債，5月中旬國債收益率曲線曾出現反轉。

Zhu Ning, a finance professor at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said the Moody’s decision was “sensible” in view of tightened liquidity in China’s capital markets and economic growth that was still at its lowest since 1990. “Bond defaults are likely to rise because of the deterioration in the external environment,” Professor Zhu said.

清華大學(Tsinghua University)金融學教授朱寧表示，鑑於中國資本市場流動性收緊、經濟增長仍處於1990年來最低水平，穆迪的決定是“合理的”。他表示：“由於外部環境的惡化，債券違約可能會增加。”

But in a bond market that at its peak last autumn was widely seen as a bubble, some foreign investors consider the shakeout positive.

不過，對於去年秋天到達頂峯時被廣泛視爲泡沫的中國債市，部分外國投資者認爲這輪拋售是有積極意義的。

“China’s recent regulatory tightening should help deflate the country’s credit markets and lead to long-term market stabilisation,” said Luc Froehlich, head of Asian fixed income at Fidelity International in Hong Kong.

富達國際(Fidelity International)駐香港的亞洲固定收益部門負責人盧克?弗勒利希(Luc Froehlich)表示：“中國最近收緊監管，應該有助於爲該國信貸市場去泡沫，並有助於長期市場穩定。”