爲什麼中國可能會在南中國海問題上與美國攤牌

LAST JULY AN international tribunal made a landmark ruling against China over their historical claim to territory in the South China Sea. The world’s most populous nation claims sovereignty over the majority of the region east of Vietnam north of Malaysia and west of the Philippines. Within this territory is the island of Taiwan as well as areas of sea claimed by China’s closest neighbours.

去年七月一個國際法庭做了個里程碑式的裁決，反對中國在南中國海對其領土的歷史主張。世界上人口最多的國家對越南東邊、馬來西亞北邊及菲律賓西邊的大部分地區聲稱擁有主權。這片地區裏包括臺灣島，以及同樣被中國的近鄰們聲稱擁有主權的海域。

No fan of trump but this is a scaremongering piece to suggest that Trump will cause a conflict over the South China Sea territory. The US under Obama has already moved massive naval assets into this sphere of the globe and he admonished Beijing a number of times in regards to this issue. In August under the Obama regime three b1 bombers were sent over the area as a show of strength these planes are capable of carrying a nuclear payload. It’s a much more complicated mess then suggesting it’s limited to the US backing Taiwan or the one china question. Japan the Philippines Korea both north and south all have claims on the territory which is currently in international waters. There have already been many clashes with Chinease naval forces in the area much more serious than the one with the Indian naval vessel over the disputed territory. Trump may be a nut but this has been brewing for many years and if you are going to do a piece on this powder keg do a balanced and fair one covering all the nations and theirclaims rather than a puff piece to scare people about trump you also forgot to mention the landing strips that have been built on the reefs or the the Sam missiles the Chinease have moved there already or the fact they seized the us naval drone in December

稱不上特朗普的粉絲但這確屬一篇危言聳聽的言論，意味着特朗普將引發在中國南海領土上的衝突。奧巴馬時期美國已經大規模將海軍力量佈置進入這個區域，並就此問題多次告誡北京。在8月，奧巴馬政府將三架B1轟炸機派到此區域，以強力顯示這些飛機攜帶核彈頭的能力。這引發了更復雜的混亂，並暗示着美國將有限的支持臺灣或者改變一箇中國的原則。日本、菲律賓、韓國、朝鮮都宣稱目前在國際水域，在該地區已經發生許多與中國海軍的衝突，比與印度海軍艦艇在有爭議的領土發生的糾紛還要嚴重。特朗普很可能面臨難以解決的問題，但這已醞釀多年。假如你想在這個火藥桶上做一點平衡或者做一個讓所有的國家以及他們言論因爲認可的公正的觀點，而不僅是做一些唬人的吹吹捧文章，更別提建立在珊瑚礁上的機場跑道和中國已經搬到那裏的“薩姆”導彈以及他們在12月捕獲的美國海軍無人探測設備。

It came to war this is a war that the U.S. could not win. It would cost them an absolute fortune given the logistics and their production capabilities are nowhere near what China’s are now. China is a juggernaut of heavy industry.

如果開戰，這是一場美國無法獲勝的戰爭。考慮到後勤和生產能力根本不及中國，這勢必讓他們付出巨大的代價。在重工業方面中國是龍頭老大。

@Phil Magee: Hi Phil The US armed forces vastly outnumber both China and Russia when it comes to arms several times over. The US has a massive army. No comparison. Under Obama the US had a weak commander but not now. Trump will not be pushed around by Chinese threats

@Phil Magee: 嗨，Phil 美軍的武力裝備比中國和俄羅斯都多出很多，都可以裝備他們好幾回了。美國有一支龐大的軍隊。無人能比。在奧巴馬時期美國有一個懦弱的司令官，但是現在不一樣了，川普不會被中國的威脅所左右的。

@Burke John: I’m not sure you understand the scale here. Sure Americas military might is greater but they would not be able to pit all their might against China. Remember when China shot down the spy plane? who went to war because his daddy went to war demanded the plane back he got it back or at least the shell of it 6 weeks later. China does not fear America they may not be as powerful but are powerful enough to face them down.

@Burke John：我不知道你怎麼理解這裏說的規模。是的美國的軍事力量可能更強大，但他們不能動用所有的力量對付中國。記得中國擊落了間諜飛機那事嗎？ 小布什要求把飛機要回來（小布什開戰是因爲他爹開戰），他6周後拿回了它，或至少拿回了它的殼。中國不怕美國，他們可能沒有那麼強大，但有足夠的力量面對對手。