南中國海爭端變數:美國的態度

Dang Cong Ngu ruled a South China Sea archipelago for Vietnam for five years — but never once set foot in the place.

Dang Cong Ngu有5年時間一直在爲越南管理位於南中國海的一處羣島，但是，他卻從未踏上過這些島嶼。

The now-retired 63-year-old governor of the disputed Paracel Islands was a king without a kingdom, railing from onshore eXile against China’s capture of a strategic outpost central to the battle for Asia’s seas.

如今已退休的63歲的Dang Cong Ngu曾被越方任命爲存在爭議的帕拉塞爾羣島（Paracel Islands，中國稱西沙羣島，越南稱黃沙羣島(Hoang Sa)）地區主席，這個沒有王國的“國王”只能流亡於陸上，在那裏痛斥中國對這一處於亞洲海洋爭奪戰核心的戰略前哨的佔領。

“We must fight to bring the territory back to the motherland,” a still-fiery Mr Dang declared in his old office, a poster proclaiming “The Paracels belong to Vietnam” in the background. “All Vietnamese, regardless of ethnicity, living inside or outside the country, know that’s the right thing to do.”

“我們必須竭盡全力讓這些領土迴歸祖國懷抱，”依然憤懣的Dang Cong Ngu在一間老舊的辦公室內稱，他背後是一幅宣稱“帕拉塞爾羣島屬於越南”的標語。“所有越南人，無論屬於哪個民族，無論在不在越南生活，都知道這是應該做的事情。”

The elder statesman’s tough talk underscores why analysts see the islands and other China-Vietnam territorial disputes as potential flashpoints for confrontation that could pit Beijing against not just Hanoi but the new administration in Washington. Vietnam fought a border war with China as recently as 1979 — and, like other Southeast Asian countries, it is waiting nervously to see how Donald Trump’s government deals with Beijing and its territorial ambitions. China’s Xi Jinping is set to meet Mr Trump in the US next month.

這位年長的越南政治家的強硬言論明確表明，爲何分析人士將這些島嶼以及中越之間的其他領土糾紛視爲潛在衝突引爆點——有可能讓北京陷入與河內、甚至華盛頓新政府的對抗。中越之間就在1979年還打過一場邊境戰爭。與其他東南亞國家一樣，如今越南正焦急地等着要看唐納德?特朗普(Donald Trump)政府如何應對北京及其領土野心。中國國家主席習近平將於下月在美國與特朗普會面。

Jonathan London, a Vietnam specialist at the Netherlands’ Leiden University, said: “For Hanoi and the Vietnamese, Beijing’s claims and its efforts to enforce these through aggressive practices remain clear and present threats to national security and sovereign interests. The great unknown in all of this is how the Trump administration will manage its relations with Hanoi — and in the region more broadly.”

荷蘭萊頓大學(University of Leiden)越南問題專家喬納森?倫敦(Jonathan London)表示：“在越南政府和越南民衆看來，北京方面的領土主張及其通過挑釁性做法貫徹這些主張的努力，依然是對越南國家安全和主權利益明確且現實的威脅。這其中最大的未知數是特朗普政府將如何處理其與河內——以及整個東南亞地區——的關係。”

Hanoi this week called for Beijing to stop running cruise ship trips to the Paracels, which are known as Hoang Sa in Vietnamese and the Xisha islands in Chinese. Those tours are part of a broader effort by Beijing to press its territorial claims to more than 90 per cent of the South China Sea, by building military facilities and artificial islands around the region.

最近，河內方面呼籲北京停止用遊輪載送遊客至帕拉塞爾羣島觀光。這些觀光項目是北京方面更廣泛努力的一部分——通過在整個地區修建軍事設施和人工島嶼強化其對南中國海逾90%海域的領土主張。

The Paracels are a strategic way station south-east of China’s Hainan Island and its nuclear submarine fleet, in a wider seaway crucial to international trade. Beijing has built harbours, helipads and an air base in the archipelago, according to a report published last month by the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative. China last year deployed anti-aircraft missiles in the Paracels and recently cleared still more land in preparation for possible further construction, according to satellite images, the latest of them released this week.

帕拉塞爾羣島是位於中國的海南島（及其核潛艇艦隊）東南方向的一處戰略要衝，處於對國際貿易至關重要的廣闊海上航道上。戰略與國際研究中心(CSIS)旗下亞洲海事透明倡議(Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative)上月發佈的一份報告顯示，中國政府在該羣島修建了若干港口、直升機起降場及一處空軍基地。衛星圖像顯示，中國去年在帕拉塞爾羣島部署了防空導彈，而根據日前公佈的最新圖像，北京最近又清理出了更多土地，爲可能的進一步建設做準備。

Communist-ruled Hanoi has made its own military preparations by strengthening ties with a range of international powers, including its former enemy the US. It has also increased security co-operation with Japan and India, which are both trying to curb Chinese expansion in the region.

共產黨執政的越南政府已通過鞏固與衆多全球大國——包括曾經的敵人美國——的關係進行軍事方面的準備。它還加強了與日本和印度的安全合作，後兩個國家均在努力遏制中國在本地區的擴張。

Another element of Hanoi’s response is to maintain the bureaucratic fiction of its rule over the Paracels, which South Vietnamese forces lost to China in a 1974 battle while they were sliding to civil war defeat. The Paracel administration’s headquarters in the Vietnamese coastal town of Da Nang is filled with maps, photos and other historical documents ostensibly in support of its claim.

河內方面其他迴應包括堅持其對西沙羣島擁有管轄權的官方說辭——中國在1974年的一次衝突中從當時在內戰中節節失利的南越軍隊手中得到了該羣島。位於越南沿海城市峴港的帕拉塞爾羣島行政當局的總部內放滿了各種地圖、照片及其他貌似支持越南領土主張的歷史文獻。

Le Dinh Re, a former South Vietnamese naval officer, recalled rescuing troops defeated by the Chinese in 1974. “I didn’t think China would still be there after 43 years,” said Mr Le, 73. “I really hope that one day I can set foot in Hoang Sa.”

南越海軍退役軍官Le Dinh Re回憶起1974年營救被中國擊敗的軍隊的情形。“沒想到43年後中國仍佔着那裏，”73歲的Le Dinh Re說，“我真希望有一天能踏上黃沙羣島。”

The deployment of a Chinese oil rig in the area three years ago triggered anti-Beijing protests. Mobs later ransacked or torched hundreds of foreign-owned businesses in Vietnam’s industrial zones.

中國3年前在該地區部署鑽井平臺引發了反北京的抗議活動。後來暴民洗劫或燒燬了越南工業區的數百家外資企業。

Nowadays Vietnamese fisherman at a Da Nang boat repair yard complain that they are chased away from the Paracels by Chinese vessels. Authorities say one large fishing boat was deliberately rammed: the plan is to put it in a new Da Nang museum devoted to the islands and Vietnam’s imagination of them.

如今，峴港船舶修理廠的越南漁民抱怨稱，他們被中國船隻趕離了帕拉塞爾羣島。有關當局稱，一艘大型漁船被故意撞沉：現在的計劃是，把它放在峴港一個新博物館裏展示，這個博物館專門介紹這些羣島以及越南對它們的想象。

“Our fishing boats are wooden and their vessels are steel, so we have no solution to this,” lamented Nguyen Vu, 35. “It’s our traditional fishing area, so we will never give it up.”

35歲的Nguyen Vu哀嘆道：“我們的漁船是木質的，他們的船是鋼鐵造的，因此我們沒有辦法解決這個問題。這是我們傳統的捕魚區，因此我們永遠不會放棄。”

China has rejected both Vietnam’s Paracel sovereignty arguments and a wider ruling made by an international court in July against most of its South China Sea territorial claims. Beijing argues that the US is the aggressor in Asia because of its warship deployments and military bases around the region. China says it is committed to a long-planned code of conduct for countries in the region.

中國反駁了越南關於帕拉塞爾羣島是其領土的主張，同時中國還認爲，去年7月一家國際法庭做出的不利於中國在南中國海大部分領土主張的更廣泛裁決是無效的。中國政府辯稱，美國是亞洲地區的挑釁者，因爲它在該地區部署了戰艦和軍事基地。中國表示，它致力於促成一項規劃已久的亞洲地區安全行爲準則。

Hanoi is now sensitively placed as the Southeast Asian capital most publicly at odds with China’s maritime ambitions, after Philippine president Rodrigo Duterte sought to repair his country’s relationship with Beijing.

在菲律賓總統羅德里戈?杜特爾特(Rodrigo Duterte)尋求修復本國與中國的關係之後，河內現在地位敏感，被視爲最公開與中國海洋抱負對立的東南亞國家。

Vietnam’s belligerence is necessarily tempered by China’s far greater firepower — and by longstanding trade, cultural and political links between the two countries. But those caveats may yet be swept aside in this high-stakes and fast-evolving battle to rule the waves. Former governor Mr Dang says the Paracels’ administration-in-exile will push ever harder to build diplomatic and legal pressure on China to hand the islands over. “Ours is an extremely difficult and complex mission,” he said. “We must use all means that we can to regain Vietnamese sovereignty over Hoang Sa.”

越南的戰鬥姿態必然是有限度的，因爲中國火力強大得多，而且兩國間長期存在貿易、文化和政治往來。但在這場爭奪海洋統治權的事關重大且快速演變的戰爭中，那些告誡或許仍會被拋諸腦後。帕拉塞爾羣島前地區主席Dang Cong Ngu表示，帕拉塞爾羣島的流亡當局將會進一步向中國施加外交和法律壓力以要求後者歸還這些島嶼。他說：“我們的使命極爲艱難和複雜。我們必須竭盡所能收回越南對黃沙的主權。”

Additional reporting by Khac Giang Nguyen

Khac Giang Nguyen補充報道