美國有一個機會來擊退中國的南海戰略

Ahead of the looming International Tribunal ruling on the Philippine-initiated arbitration case against China’s contested maritime sovereignty claims in the South China Sea (SCS) Chinese diplomats and government officials are conducting an aggressive PR campaign throughout the region and across the globe to influence world opinion and present China and its legal and political positions as correct through the publication of various comments by sympathetic world leaders legal scholars and international relations experts.

在即將到來的國際法庭對由菲律賓發起的針對中國在南海有爭議的海上主權索賠案的裁決做出之前，中國外交官和政府官員正在整個地區和全球各地進行一項積極的公關活動：通過對中國有好感的世界領導人、法律學者和國際關係專家發表各種評論，以影響世界輿論，並展示中國以及它的法律與政治立場是正確的。

They want to highlight the positive aspects of Beijing’s maritime security comportment and accentuate the benevolent features of its growing presence in the SCS while peddling the same familiar public-diplomacy themes—the United States as the destabilizing aggressor; China as the virtuous but hapless victim; and the source of all regional trouble as Washington’s arm-twisting of its allies and partners in Manila Hanoi and Kuala Lumpur—and steadily messaging that it does not recognize the jurisdiction and authority of the International Tribunal of the Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at the Hague to rule in this case.

他們想突出北京的海上安全行爲的積極方面，強調其在南海日益頻繁現身時友善的特點，並且兜售同樣爲世人熟悉的公共外交的主題----美國是造成不穩定的侵略者；中國是善良而不幸的受害者；以及造成地區所有麻煩的根源：華盛頓在馬尼拉、河內和吉隆坡強迫其盟友和夥伴服從自己----並向外界持續釋放這樣的信息：中國不會承認設於海牙的常設仲裁法院下的國際法庭審理本案的管轄權和權威性。

All in all this PR shift may be part of a larger adjustment by Beijing of its assertive actions in the SCS in response to the mounting unfavorable geopolitical conditions and regional trends.

概言之，這一公關行爲可能是北京在南海轉向強硬行爲的更大調整的一部分，以應對越來越多的不利的地緣政治條件和區域趨勢。

If so what does the PR shift reveal about Beijing’s maritime strategy and more importantly what can Washington do to shape and influence that evolving strategy?

如果是這樣的話，公關重點的轉移揭示了北京會採取什麼樣的的海洋戰略，更重要的是，華盛頓能採取什麼行動來左右和影響不斷調整的戰略？