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臺灣擔心成爲美中夾心餅

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臺灣擔心成爲美中夾心餅

Taiwan fears getting caught between the US and China as president-elect Donald Trump threatens a tougher approach towards Beijing and the Chinese government intensifies its sabre-rattLing in the region.

美國當選總統唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)威脅對中國採取更強硬立場,而北京方面加大了在所在地區的武力恫嚇,面對這種情況,臺灣擔心被夾在美中之間左右爲難。

Politicians and analysts in Taiwan believe Beijing is stepping up pressure on the self-governing and democratic island, which China claims is its territory, because of actions taken by Mr Trump.

臺灣政治人士和分析人士認爲,由於特朗普採取的動作,北京方面正在對這座自治、民主的島嶼施加更大壓力。北京方面聲稱臺灣是中國領土的一部分。

Feng Shih-kuan, Taiwan’s defence minister, on Tuesday called on the military to “maintain a high degree of combat readiness” as the “threat from the enemy grows day by day.”

週二,臺灣國防部長馮世寬要求軍方“保持戰備的警覺”,因爲“敵情威脅日益增長”。

He made the comments hours after the Chinese navy sailed its only aircraft carrier just 90 nautical miles from the coast of Taiwan. Taipei deployed fighter jets and naval ships to monitor the progress of the carrier and its supporting fleet. Beijing has said the carrier is on a routine exercise.

他發表這番講話數小時前,中國海軍僅有的一艘航母航行至距臺灣海岸僅90海里處。臺灣方面部署了戰鬥機和海軍艦艇,監視該航母及其輔助艦隊的行進。北京方面表示,該航母在進行例行演練。

The carrier’s movement came weeks after the Chinese military flew a bomber capable of carrying nuclear weapons close to the edge of Taiwanese territory and the Chinese navy snatched a US naval submarine drone in the South China Sea.

幾周前,中國軍方派遣一架能攜帶核彈的轟炸機,飛至鄰近臺灣領空邊緣的空域,中國海軍還在南中國海捕獲了美國海軍一具無人潛航器。

Mr Trump upset Beijing by taking a congratulatory phone call from Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen, the first such high-level contact for decades, and then questioning the “One China” principle under which most of the world rejects diplomatic ties with Taipei.

特朗普接了臺灣總統蔡英文(Tsai Ing-wen)打來的祝賀電話——這是幾十年來的首次此類高級別接觸——然後又質疑“一箇中國”原則。他的行爲觸怒了北京方面。世界上絕大多數國家遵循“一箇中國”原則,拒絕與臺北方面建立外交關係。

“China is very angry about losing face, so it is picking on Taiwan as a scapegoat,” said Lo Chih-cheng, a legislator and foreign policy expert from Ms Tsai’s Democratic Progressive party. “The lesson we learn is that US policy toward Taiwan is a function of US-China policy, so we have to be very careful, whether the US takes a more confrontational or a more friendly approach to China.”

“中國丟了面子很生氣,所以把臺灣當作替罪羊。”蔡英文領導的民進黨(DPP)的立法委員、外交政策專家羅致政(Lo Chih-cheng)說,“我們得到的教訓是,美國對臺政策是隨美國對華政策而變的,所以,不管美國對華採取更具對抗性的態度還是採取更友好的態度,我們都必須非常小心。”

Beijing has tightened its squeeze on Taiwan since Ms Tsai took office in May because it is unhappy with her party’s insistence that Taiwan should maintain its de facto independence and reduce its economic reliance on China.

自5月蔡英文上臺以來,北京方面加大了對臺灣的壓力,因爲他們不滿民進黨方面所堅持的立場,即臺灣應保持事實上的獨立地位並減少對中國的經濟依賴。

Politicians from the opposition Kuomintang, or Nationalist party, which promoted closer links with China under previous president Ma Ying-jeou, have attacked the DPP for upsetting Beijing at a delicate time in the US-China relationship.

反對黨國民黨(Kuomintang)的政治人士批評民進黨在美中關係微妙時刻惹惱北京方面。在前任總統馬英九(Ma Ying-jeou)領導下,國民黨促成兩岸之間發展更密切的關係。

“The DPP is unbalanced in its foreign policy,” said Lin Yu-fang, a national security expert at the KMT’s think-tank and a former legislator. “They want to make one elephant happy and the other angry but that’s very dangerous for Taiwan because China is the biggest market for our goods and the US is the only nation willing to sell us weapons.”

“民進黨在外交政策方面是失衡的,”國民黨智庫的國家安全專家、前立法委員林郁方(Lin Yu-fang)說,“他們想讓一隻大象開心,讓另一隻大象生氣,但這對臺灣來說非常危險,因爲大陸是我方產品的最大市場,而美國是唯一願意賣給我們武器的國家。”

Lin Chu-chia, another KMT policy adviser and a former deputy minister in charge of relations with China, said many Taiwanese want to see Mr Trump push back against Beijing’s assertive behaviour.

另一位國民黨政策顧問、曾任陸委會副主委的林祖嘉(Lin Chu-chia)說,許多臺灣人希望看到特朗普反擊北京方面的強勢行爲。

But they worry the US president-elect will merely use Taiwan as a “bargaining chip” to get concessions from China on trade and other bilateral issues.

但他們擔心特朗普只會把臺灣當作“談判籌碼”,以換取中國在貿易及其他雙邊問題上作出讓步。

“We want a consistent policy,” said Lin Chu-chia. “If the Americans say they’ll support us without limit in the military sense, we’d be happy.”

“我們希望看到有連貫性的政策,”林祖嘉說,“如果美國人說他們將在軍事層面無限支持我們,我們會很高興。”

Huang Kuo-chang, a legislator from the New Power party, said Taiwan will have to be “patient and prudent” until Mr Trump’s stance becomes clearer after he takes office next month.

時代力量黨(New Power party)立委黃國昌(Huang Kuo-chang)表示,下月就職後特朗普的立場會變得更爲清晰,在此之前臺灣必須保持“耐心和謹慎”。

“I fully support our government strengthening relations with the US government but it is too early to tell which way the Trump administration will go,” said Mr Huang, whose party grew out of a student movement opposed to deeper trade with China.

黃國昌說,“我完全支持我們政府加強與美國政府的關係,但現在要判斷特朗普政府將採取什麼路線還爲時尚早。”時代力量黨脫胎於一場反對與中國加深貿易關係的學生運動。

He warned that, whatever Mr Trump does, Chinese pressure on Taiwan would backfire in this democracy of 23m people.

他警告稱,無論特朗普做什麼,中國對臺灣施壓都將在這個2300萬人的民主政體引起反彈。

“The direction is not set by Ms Tsai and the DPP but by the Taiwanese people, and the Taiwanese people don’t like to be threatened,” he said.

“決定方向的不是蔡英文和民進黨,而是臺灣人民,臺灣人民不喜歡被威脅,”他說。

But the Taiwanese are increasingly nervous about Beijing’s approach.

但臺灣人對北京方面的做法越來越緊張。

“Not many people believe it’s safe for us to become formally independent because we’re scared of China,” said Alice Hung, a science student at the National Taiwan University. “If they really want to attack us, what can we do?”

“沒多少人認爲我們轉向正式獨立是安全的,因爲我們害怕中國。”國立臺灣大學(National Taiwan University)的理科學生Alice Hung說,“如果他們真的想進攻我們,我們能做什麼?”