美國智庫爲臺灣防衛獻計劃策

WASHINGTON (AP) — Fears of war between Taiwan and China have eased in recent years, but the growing gap in their military capabilities has prompted a U.S. think tank to lay out a radical new approach in how Taiwan could defend itself if China invaded, relying less on conventional forces and more on guerrilla-style tactics and cyberwarfare.

華盛頓（美聯社）- 近些年來臺灣與中國之間的戰爭擔憂在逐漸減少，然而他們間的軍事實力的鴻溝促使美國智庫設計了一套全新的防禦中國入侵的方案，更少的依賴傳統軍力，更多的使用遊擊式戰術和網絡戰。

The nongovernment Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments is wading into delicate territory. Relations have between democratic Taiwan and communist-governed China have improved as they have forged economic agreements —a development welcomed by the United States.

非政府智庫“戰略暨預算評估中心”涉入的是一個微妙的領域。皿煮的臺灣與共產主義管治的中國之間的關係正在得到改善，雙方在締結各種經濟協議，美國對這些進展是歡迎的。

Washington, however, remains obligated by U.S. law to provide Taiwan the means to defend itself. U.S. lawmakers have accused the Obama administration of refusing to sell Taiwan new fighter jets and submarines for fear of angering Beijing, which claims sovereignty over the self-governing island.

不過華盛頓有義務根據美國法律向臺灣提供自衛的手段。美國國會指責奧巴馬政府因擔心惹惱聲稱擁有這個自治島嶼主權的北京而拒絕向臺灣出售新戰機和潛艇。

Congress last week approved the possible sale of four U.S. frigates to Taiwan, drawing Chinese criticism, but Taiwan shows growing willingness to develop its own hardware. On Tuesday, it launched a stealthy, missile-launching corvette, the first of ship of its kind produced by Taiwan.

國會上週批准可以向臺灣銷售四艘驅逐艦，引來了中國的批評，而臺灣則有意向更多的自行開發本土軍事硬件。在本週二，臺灣推出了一款隱身導彈快船，這是同類艦船的第一艘臺灣製造。

But China's rapid military modernization has exposed a widening gulf between its forces and those on Taiwan, which spent $10.8 billion on its defense in 2013. According to a U.S. Defense Department estimate, China's military spending that year was $145 billion.

然而與隨着中國飛快的軍事現代化，與臺灣間的軍力鴻溝已經愈拉愈大。臺灣2013年的防衛開支是108億美元，而據美國國防部估計，中國同年度的軍事開支爲1450億美元。

"With the resource gap approaching fourteen-to-one, even if Taiwan were to massively increase its defense budget, it would not reverse the cumulative advantages the PRC has accrued over the past two decades," said the center's report, released this week. PRC stands for the communist-governed People's Republic of China.

“當資金差額達到14比1時，無論臺灣如何大幅增加防衛預算，都無力反轉PRC在過去的幾十年裏累積的優勢，”該中心本週發佈的報告稱。PRC是共產管治的中華人民共和國的縮寫。

A U.S. congressional advisory panel reported last month that China has about 2,100 combat aircraft and 280 naval ships available for a Taiwan conflict, and more 1,100 short-range ballistic missiles that could incapacitate Taiwan's air force in the early hours of a conflict. Taiwan has about 410 combat aircraft and 90 naval combat ships.

美國國會的一個顧問小組上月的一份報告稱中國在臺海衝突中可投入2100架戰機、280艘海軍艦艇，超過1100枚短程彈道導彈可以在衝突開始的幾個小時內癱瘓臺灣空軍。臺灣有大約410架戰機和90艘海軍艦艇。

The center advocates an "asymmetric approach," with Taiwan using lighter forces to counter rather than match China's strengths. While Taiwan increasingly emphasizes such tactics, its military modernization plan still calls for big, conventional acquisitions, the report says.

該中心建議使用“非對稱手段”，臺灣應使用輕巧的軍力去反擊而非試圖與中國比肩抗衡。報告稱雖然臺灣越來越重視這種戰術，其軍事現代化計劃仍然偏向採購大型常規武備。

For a fraction of the cost of building eight large diesel submarines that Taiwan is also planning, it could produce a fleet of 42 "midget submarines" similar in size to craft that North Korea and Iran have, the report says. These submarines could provide warning and targeting data for anti-ship cruise missiles deployed on mobile launchers resembling trucks hauling shipping containers.

報告稱臺灣計劃以比建造8艘大型柴油潛艇少的多的費用建造一隻42艘“迷你潛艇”組成的編隊，其大小與朝鮮和伊朗的類似。這些潛艇可以向佈置在卡車集裝箱上的移動式巡航導彈提供預警和目標數據。

To combat Chinese fighter planes, the report proposes "guerrilla" air defense, using hundreds of surface-to-air missiles — a tactic it says proved effective for North Vietnam against the United States during the Vietnam War. And if Chinese forces make it on land, guerrilla tactics to harass the occupying forces would slow their advance toward Taipei. It says cyberwar against Chinese battle networks would also be one of Taiwan's viable deterrents and "cost-imposing strategies."

至於對抗中國戰機，報告則建議採用“遊擊式”防空，使用數以百計的地對空導彈，這是在越戰中北越對抗美國的、被證明是有效的戰術。當中國軍隊登陸後，遊擊襲擾戰術可以延滯登島部隊向臺北推進。報告稱對中國的戰區網絡實施網絡戰也是一項可行的殺手鐗和“代價倍增戰略“。

The report's authors say asymmetric approaches toward defense would reduce Taiwanese dependence on U.S. armaments, and should also appeal to other neighbors concerned over China's military buildup.

報告的作者稱，使用非對稱手段進行防禦可以降低臺灣對美國軍備的依賴，對其他擔憂中國軍事實力的鄰國也具有吸引力。

Nations like Vietnam, the Philippines and Indonesia "have territorial disputes with China and face many of the same challenges responding to the rapid Chinese military modernization looming over Taiwan," the report says.

報告稱像越南、菲律賓和印尼等國”與中國有領土糾紛，而且同樣面對中國快速現代化的軍事壓力。