FT社評 朝鮮問題亟需國際干預

The Asia-Pacific region is an increasingly important driver of global growth, and sits in an increasingly delicate strategic equilibrium.

亞太地區是全球增長的一個越來越重要的驅動力，而其所處的戰略平衡卻越來越脆弱。

One country poses an imminent danger to the region’s stability and therefore its prosperity: North Korea.

有一個國家對該地區穩定及繁榮構成迫在眉睫的威脅，那就是朝鮮。

The regime in Pyongyang is persistent in pursuit of nuclear weapons and the missiles to deploy them over long distances.

平壤政權執着地追求發展核武，以及能夠搭載核武的遠程導彈。

The stand-off is terribly dangerous already, and will grow worse.

這種對峙局面已經十分危險，而且還會變得更糟糕。

Stronger international engagement is needed — now.

國際社會需要立即進行更強有力的干預。

Experts believe that North Korea possesses more than 20 nuclear bombs.

專家相信朝鮮擁有超過20枚核彈。

It has deployed ballistic missiles with ranges that extend to Japan, and has been performing tests with the aim of developing missiles that can reach the west coast of the US.

朝鮮已部署射程可至日本的彈道導彈，而且一直在進行導彈試驗，目標是開發出射程能達到美國西海岸的導彈。

It is a matter of time before it can make nuclear bombs compact enough for such missiles to carry: five years is the consensus estimate.

朝鮮製造出小巧到遠程導彈足以攜帶的核彈只是時間問題，外界對這個時間的普遍估計爲5年。

The US and its allies could not and should not tolerate this.

美國及其盟國對此不能也不應容忍。

The threat is not limited to the Pacific.

這一威脅不止侷限於太平洋。

In 2008, US government officials alleged that Pyongyang had attempted to help Syria develop a nuclear facility.

2008年，美國政府官員宣稱平壤方面曾企圖幫助敘利亞發展核設施。

The international community needs to bring North Korea back to the table for multilateral talks, with the end of the missile programme as the proximate goal.

國際社會需要讓朝鮮重返多邊談判，以結束導彈計劃爲近期目標。

There are three keys for success.

想要成功達成該目標有三個關鍵點。

First, an unambiguous warning to Pyongyang that the world will never, under any conditions, acknowledge it as a legitimate or permanent nuclear power.

首先，明確警告平壤方面，不管在任何條件下，全世界都絕不會承認它是合法、永久的擁核國。

Second, backing these warnings with heavier sanctions.

其次，以更嚴厲的制裁來支撐這一警告。

Finally, the US, South Korea and Japan must accelerate their co-operation on a missile defence network in the region.

最後，美國、韓國和日本必須加快它們在該地區導彈防禦網絡上的合作。

On sanctions, the crucial issue is support from China.

制裁方面，關鍵問題是要得到中國支持。

In November the UN Security Council, in response to North Korea’s latest nuclear test, passed multilateral sanctions targeting the coal trade.

聯合國安理會(UN Security Council)在11月通過了對朝鮮煤炭貿易的多邊制裁，作爲對朝鮮最近一次核試驗的迴應。

Coal is one of the country’s key sources of hard currency, but this will not be enough.

煤炭是朝鮮獲得硬通貨的主要來源之一，但這一制裁還不夠。

In negotiations with China, the US reportedly called for tougher measures, such as an oil embargo.

據報道，美國在與中國的談判中要求採取更嚴厲的措施，例如石油禁運。

China would not agree.

中國不會同意美國的要求，

It has good reason: if the regime were to collapse, it faces the prospect of refugees flooding over its border or even sharing a border with a unified Korea that is a US ally and host to US troops.

其理由很充分：如果平壤政權崩潰，中國面對的將是難民如潮水一般向中國邊境涌來，而且中國甚至可能要與一個作爲美國盟友、有美軍駐守的統一的朝鮮比鄰而居。

Yet China accounts for 90 per cent of North Korea’s international trade.

中國佔朝鮮國際貿易的90%，

Without some degree of Chinese co-operation, UN sanctions cannot tighten meaningfully.

沒有中方一定程度的合作，聯合國制裁就無法真正收緊。

A middle way, in which China notches up the pressure without posing an existential threat to the Pyongyang regime, must be found.

各方必須找到一條中間道路，讓中國能夠在不對平壤政權的存亡構成威脅的情況下增加對朝鮮的施壓。

If the US, Japan and South Korea, accelerate missile defence co-operation, they could increase their own safety while giving China reason to adjust its stance.

如果美日韓三方加快導彈防禦合作，他們就可以在增強自身安全的同時，讓中國有理由調整其立場。

The three countries have already moved in this direction.

這三個國家已經在朝這個方向邁進，

The trio also conducted its first joint missile defence exercise in Hawaii in June.

三國還於今年6月在夏威夷舉行了第一次聯合導彈防禦演習。

In July, Washington and Seoul agreed to deploy a new American missile defence system in South Korea.

7月，美韓兩國政府同意在韓國部署一個新的美製導彈防禦系統。

In November, Japan and South Korea signed an intelligence pact.

11月，日本和韓國簽署了一項情報協定。

China opposes high-altitude defence deployment in South Korea.

中國反對在韓國部署高空防禦系統。

It appears to worry that it will weaken its own missile capability.

中方似乎擔心該系統會削弱自己導彈的威力。

This opens the way for a quid pro quo: help with sanctions in return for missile defence concessions.

這爲達成交換提供了機會：中方以配合對朝制裁換取美韓在導彈防禦方面作出讓步。

Progress will be made infinitely more difficult if China-US relations degrade.

如果中美關係惡化，這一進程的推進難度將大大增加。

President-elect Donald Trump appears intent on shaking up the relationship, using Taiwan as a bargaining chip.

美國當選總統唐納德.特朗普(Donald Trump)似乎一心打算改變美中關係格局，將臺灣作爲議價籌碼。

If pursued, this will become a game for the highest possible stakes.

如果他推行這一策略，這將是一盤賭注無窮高的遊戲。

One must hope that the Mr Trump has thought through his strategy.

只求特朗普的這一策略是經過深思熟慮的。

At the very least, it puts progress on North Korea in doubt.

至少，這一策略讓能否在朝鮮問題上取得進展變得不好說了。