美國盟友可能幫助ISIS贏得民心

The tortuous war against Isis is taking a treacherous turn. Two years after the militant Sunni group declared its brutal caliphate, the US and its allies in Iraq and Syria have begun a two-front offensive to dislodge the militant group from its strongholds in the Iraqi city of Falluja and Raqqa in Syria. But, while the campaign has made progress, the composition of the forces leading the battles in the two Arab Sunni cities is intensifying sectarian and ethnic tensions in the bitterly divided nations and beyond. The danger is that the US-led action will, ultimately, help Isis gain legitimacy as a defender of Sunnis — even if it cedes territory.

打擊“伊斯蘭國”(ISIS)的艱難戰事正遭遇危險的轉向。在這個遜尼派武裝組織宣告成立其殘暴的“哈里發國”兩年後，美國及其在伊拉克和敘利亞的盟友在兩條戰線上對ISIS發起攻勢，試圖將該組織驅離其在伊拉克城市費盧傑(Falluja)和敘利亞城市拉卡(Raqqa)的大本營。但是，儘管這場戰役取得進展，但主導向這兩個遜尼派城市進攻的各派軍事力量的構成，正在加劇這兩個尖銳分裂國家乃至整個地區的宗派和民族關係緊張。當前的危險在於，美國領導的行動最終將幫助ISIS獲得作爲遜尼派守衛者的合法性——即便ISIS不得不放棄地盤。

Heightened fears in Syria, Iraq and the wider region about the offensive in Falluja and Raqqa bode ill for the long-term fight against the group. With western help channelled to militias beholden to the Shia regime in Iran and close to Tehran’s allies in Damascus, the fight is widely seen in the region as nakedly sectarian.

敘利亞、伊拉克以及整個地區對費盧傑和拉卡攻勢的嚴重擔憂，預示着對ISIS長期作戰的前景不妙。隨着西方援助流向聽命於伊朗什葉派政權、且與德黑蘭在大馬士革的盟友關係密切的民兵組織，這場戰鬥正被整個地區普遍視爲一場赤裸裸的宗派之戰。

The US-backed offensive is the first of its kind since the American-led anti-Isis campaign began soon after the group swept into Iraq. America has long sought to avoid providing air support for Shia and Kurdish militias to fight in two Sunni areas at once: when Baghdad launched the battle to retake the city of Tikrit from Isis in March last year, Washington refrained from providing air strikes in support of the estimated 30,000 Shia fighters until the battle stalled three weeks later.

ISIS橫掃伊拉克後不久，美國就領導了打擊該組織的軍事行動，但像這一次這樣由美國提供戰場支援的攻勢還屬首次。長期以來，美國一直試圖避免向在這兩個遜尼派區域作戰的什葉派和庫爾德武裝力量同時提供空中支援：當巴格達方面去年3月發起從ISIS手中收復提克里特(Tikrit)的攻勢時，華盛頓方面未向約3萬名什葉派武裝人員提供空中打擊支援——直至三週後戰局陷入僵持。

The US is presenting the two offensives as led by inclusive and national coalitions. In the region, however, sectarian polarisation is only growing. Arabic media outlets — which tend to echo Sunni political views — such as London-based al-Hayat newspaper, have focused coverage of Falluja on reports that Major General Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian spymaster, was leading the battle along with other militias beholden to Tehran. Al-Araby published a cartoon depicting American helicopters holding the people of Raqqa hostage beside an image of an Isis member doing the same to a condemned man.

美國把當前的這兩場攻勢說成是由包容和全球性的聯盟所領導。然而，該地區的宗派分化只是在加劇。傾向於附和遜尼派政治觀點的阿拉伯媒體——如總部設在倫敦的《生活報》(Al-Hayat)——在對費盧傑戰況的報道中聚焦於伊朗間諜機構負責人卡西姆•索萊馬尼(Qassem Soleimani)少將與聽命於德黑蘭的其他民兵組織共同領導着這場戰鬥。Al-Araby刊發的一幅漫畫相當說明問題，畫中美軍直升機將拉卡市民挾持爲人質，旁邊是一名ISIS成員準備對一名死刑犯動手的畫面。

More significant is a report from US-backed anti-Isis activist organisation, Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently . It announced last week that the fact that the battle in the city is being led by the People’s Protection Units (YPG) — with ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ party, the armed separatist group based in Turkey — is pushing residents to join forces with Isis. The YPG is seen as close to the Syrian regime and was allegedly engaged in displacement of Arab families in northern Syria, which Amnesty International said could amount to war crimes. The fact that a US-backed group is criticising the role of the Pentagon-backed YPG against a group that killed some of its colleagues is remarkable.

意義更重大的是美國支持的反ISIS活動組織“拉卡正被無聲屠宰”(Raqqa is Being Slaughtered Silently)發佈的一份報告。最近該組織宣稱，拉卡的戰鬥正由庫爾德人民保衛軍(YPG)打頭陣，而這個民兵組織與總部設在土耳其的武裝分離組織庫爾德工人黨(Kurdistan Workers' party)有關聯，這個事實正在促使拉卡市民加入ISIS陣營。YPG被視爲與敘利亞政權關係密切，據稱該組織還參與了在敘利亞北部驅逐阿拉伯家庭的行動，大赦國際(Amnesty International)稱這些行爲可能構成戰爭罪。讓人深思的是，一個美國支持的組織居然批評五角大樓支持的YPG打擊曾經殺死其部分成員的ISIS。

Such divisions offer Isis an opportunity to present itself as a custodian of the Sunni — especially in Iraq, where it has established itself as the only Sunni militant group able to stand up to militias supporting the Shia-dominated government. The fear is that a similar scenario will play out in Syria in the next few years; primarily in places such as Raqqa, where local resistance has been weak.

這些分裂爲ISIS提供了把自己包裝成遜尼派衛士的機會——特別是在伊拉克，ISIS將自己塑造成了唯一具有戰鬥力的遜尼派武裝組織，能夠抗衡那些支持什葉派主導政府的民兵組織。令人擔憂的是，未來幾年類似的一幕將在敘利亞上演，尤其是在地方抵抗力量薄弱的拉卡等地。

The sectarian situation emerging in Falluja and Raqqa, and the responses across the region, is one the US has long sought to avoid. It began training Sunni forces to retake cities such as Mosul and Raqqa, an effort that faded when forces in Baghdad resisted a bill to establish a national guard including Sunni units. But with this campaign, backed by groups abhorred by residents of the two cities, it seems to have privileged a tactical victory against Isis over a strategic one.

費盧傑、拉卡加劇的宗派衝突以及在整個地區引發的反應，是美國長期力圖避免的局面。美國最初曾訓練遜尼派武裝力量，以求收復摩蘇爾、拉卡等城市，但在建立一支包括遜尼派部隊的國民警衛隊的議案遭巴格達當局抵制後，這方面的努力不了了之。但從目前的戰役（由這兩個城市居民痛恨的組織參與）可以看出，在打擊ISIS方面，美國似乎更迫切希望獲得一場戰術而非戰略上的勝利。

It looks likely to provide Isis with a gift it has long wanted, especially in Syria: creating for ordinary people the perception that their choice is between its own jihadis and militias they see as invaders.

這有可能爲ISIS送上一份其期待已久的禮物——尤其是在敘利亞：讓普通民衆感覺自己要在ISIS的聖戰分子與他們視爲入侵者的武裝分子之間作出選擇。