中國還是俄羅斯?美國可能不得不選其一當盟友

Forty-five years ago last February U.S. President Richard Nixon returned from a visit to China that shocked the world and unsettled leaders in Moscow who were awaiting a visit from Nixon a few months later.

45年前的2月，美國總統理查德-尼克松剛剛結束對中國的訪問，這件事震驚了全世界，也擾亂了莫斯科的領導人，他們正翹首以待數月之後尼克松的來訪。

Soviet leaders wondered if they were finally witnessing the birth of a U.S.-China alliance that they had feared ever since the breakdown of the Sino-Soviet alliance in the early 1960s.

蘇聯領導人不知道他們是否終於見證了美中聯盟的誕生。自從1960年初期中蘇聯盟破裂之後，這是他們最擔心的事情。

As Washington and the media convulse over every new outrage emanating from Moscow while President Trump repeatedly asks “Wouldn’t it be nice if we actually got along with Russia?” U.S. policymakers are faced with the same choice between Russia and China though this time the stakes might be even higher.

雖然莫斯科傳出的種種暴行事件總會震驚華盛頓和媒體，然而川普總統還是多次詢問，“如果我們真的跟俄羅斯和睦相處會不會挺好？”美國決策者們面臨着同樣的選擇，即中俄間如何取捨，雖然這次的風險可能會更高。

The history of persistent tensions between Russia and China suggests two choices: Accommodate and reconcile with Russia to balance against the greater power—China. Or align with China to defend a rules-based international order from its most powerful antagonist—Russia.

俄中之間曾持續緊張的歷史暗示了兩種選擇：與俄羅斯和解以制衡更強大的中國，或與中國聯手來捍衛國際秩序規則以抗衡最強大的對手-俄羅斯。

It should be clear by now that we can no longer oppose Russia and China at the same time. Though that route might seem tempting and natural given the historical aspirations of U.S. foreign policy to protect territorial sovereignty promote human rights and provide a frxwork for free trade we are no longer equal to the task.

現在有一點很明確，我們不能再同時對付俄羅斯和中國了。雖然這條路看起來很誘人，也是美國外交政策歷史訴求的天然選擇，用以保護領土主權，提升人權，提供自由貿易框架等等，但我們再也走不動這條路了。