烏干達總統該不該退位 Even the good leaders should know when to quit

Like many African leaders, Yoweri Museveni preached democracy even as he was seizing power through the barrel of a gun. In his stirring inaugural speech of January 1986, three days after his National Resistance Movement stormed Kampala, Uganda’s new leader spoke eloquently about the cycle of coup and counter-coup despoiling Africa’s political landscape. “We have had one group getting rid of another one, only for it to turn out to be worse than the group it displaced,” he said. “The first point in our programme is the restoration of democracy.”

同許多非洲領導人一樣，約韋裏•穆塞韋尼(Yoweri Museveni)即便在通過槍桿子奪得政權之時還在宣揚民主。1986年1月，他率領的全國抵抗運動組織(National Resistance Movement)攻佔了坎帕拉，3天后，這位烏干達新領導人在就職演說中發表了滔滔雄辯，談到政變與反政變的惡性循環敗壞非洲的政治生態。“我們經歷過一個統治集團趕跑另一個統治集團，結果卻是迎來了比之前更糟糕的統治集團，”他說，“我們計劃的首要着力點是恢復民主制度。”

Thirty years after those rousing words, Mr Museveni is still in charge. Barring a violent upheaval of the sort that propelled him to power all those years ago, he will remain so for at least another five years following deeply flawed elections that culminate at the ballot box today. After a campaign marred by intimidation, Mr Museveni will be duly returned for a fifth term. He has already amended the constitution once to scrap two-term limits. If he can do so again, this time to end an age limit of 75, then Mr Museveni, already 71, may be able to carry on as leader of Uganda well into his eighties.

那些激動人心的言論發表30年後，穆塞韋尼仍掌控着這個國家。除非爆發當年將他推上權力寶座的那種暴力動盪，否則他至少將再擔任5年總統——烏干達剛剛舉行了問題多多的選舉。在經過一場被恐嚇蒙上陰影的競選之後，穆塞韋尼將開啓第5屆總統任期。他早已將憲法修改過一次，廢除了最多連任兩屆總統的限制。如果他能再次修憲——取消總統年齡不超過75歲的限制——已經71歲的穆塞韋尼或許能繼續擔任烏干達領導人至80多歲。

That is quite a feat for someone who once said that the problem with Africa was leaders “who want to overstay in power”. Even so, Mr Museveni is not the overstayer-in-chief. That honour goes to Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo of Equatorial Guinea and José Eduardo dos Santos of Angola, who have both lasted 36 years. Robert Mugabe, who turns 92 this weekend, is not far behind. He will celebrate 36 years as Zimbabwe’s leader in April and has pledged to run again in elections due in 2018. Gambia’s President Yahya Jammeh, who secured power the old-fashioned way in a coup, once told the BBC he was ready to serve for a billion years if Allah willed it. He didn’t mention the will of the people.

對於曾說過非洲的問題就在於國家領導人“戀棧”的人來說，這可是一項壯舉。即便如此，穆塞韋尼還不是掌權時間最長的領導人。赤道幾內亞總統特奧多羅•奧比昂•恩圭馬•姆巴索戈(Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo)與安哥拉總統若澤•愛德華多•多斯•桑托斯(José Eduardo dos Santos)的執政時間都達到了36年。剛到92歲高齡的津巴布韋總統羅伯特•穆加貝(Robert Mugabe)緊隨其後。今年4月，穆加貝將慶祝自己擔任津巴布韋領導人36週年，他還誓言要再次參加2018年大選。通過政變這種老方法上臺的岡比亞總統葉海亞•賈梅(Yahya Jammeh)曾在接受BBC採訪時表示，如果真主有意，他願意再幹10億年。他沒有提到人民的意願。

The temptation is to see strong leaders — the right ones, of course — as the best solution for weak and troubled states. Nic Cheeseman, an academic and author of Democracy in Africa, says that the prerequisites of democracy are generally taken to be “a coherent national identity, strong and autonomous political institutions, a developed and vibrant civil society, the effective rule of law and a strong and well-performing economy”. If that is the case, then, sadly, most African countries need not apply.

世人面臨的誘惑在於，把強勢領導人——當然是那些合適的領導人——視爲虛弱、陷入困境國家的最佳出路。著有《非洲的民主》(Democracy in Africa)一書的學者尼克•奇斯曼(Nic Cheeseman)說，實現民主體制的先決條件通常應包括“一致的國家認同、強大且自治的政治機構、發達且充滿活力的公民社會、有效的法治以及強勁且運行良好的經濟”。若是這樣的話，那麼，不幸的是，大多數非洲國家都談不上實現民主。

In Asia, some of the most successful economies, from Taiwan to South Korea and, of course, China, took off during dictatorship, even if some of them eventually became robust democracies. The problem for Africa is that leaders of the calibre of China’s Deng Xiaoping or Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew have simply not emerged, save perhaps Nelson Mandela.

在亞洲，一些最成功的經濟體——從臺灣到韓國，當然還有中國——都是在獨裁統治時期實現了經濟起飛，即便其中一些經濟體最終形成了穩健的民主政體。非洲的問題在於沒有出現像中國的鄧小平或者新加坡的李光耀(Lee Kuan Yew)那樣有水平的領導人——或許納爾遜•曼德拉(Nelson Mandela)除外。

To be fair to Mr Museveni, his tenure has not been all bad. In his first decade, he presided over a period of political stability after the horrors of Idi Amin. Growth was brisk. Infrastructure was repaired. And Mr Museveni did better than most of his peers — some of whom were shamefully neglectful — in tackling the Aids epidemic head on.

平心而論，我們也不能全盤否定穆塞韋尼的總統生涯。當政的第一個10年期間，在結束了伊迪•阿明(Idi Amin)的恐怖統治後，他爲烏干達帶來了一段時期的政治穩定。經濟實現快速增長。基礎設施得到修復。在抗擊艾滋病疫情方面，穆塞韋尼比多數非洲領導人——有些可恥地根本不重視——做得更好。

Yet the problem with successful leaders, says Mr Cheeseman, is that “they start to believe their own hype”. While villains and kleptocrats cling on because they fear reprisal, he says, better leaders stay in power because they genuinely believe no one else can do the job. Without their firm hand, they imagine, the state will slip back into penury or chaos. But holding on means hollowing out the institutions on which the future must be built. That is what has happened in Uganda.

然而，奇斯曼說，成功領導人的問題在於“他們開始相信自己的宣傳造勢”。他說，惡棍和竊國大盜因爲擔心報復而戀棧，而較好的領導人不願下臺是因爲他們真的相信沒有別人能勝任這份工作。在他們的想象中，離開了自己的鐵腕統治，國家將再度陷入貧困或混亂。但抓住權力不放意味着，打造未來所必需的各種機構遭到空心化。這正是烏干達所發生的情況。

The west is often complicit. By the mid-1990s, outright grants accounted for more than half of the Ugandan state’s revenue, up from just 10 per cent when Mr Museveni gained control. One of Africa’s supposedly great success stories was being bankrolled from afar.

西方國家經常與這些領導人沆瀣一氣。到上世紀90年代中期，援助贈款佔到了烏干達政府財政收入的一半以上，而這一比例在穆塞韋尼上臺時僅爲10%。號稱偉大的非洲成功故事之一，其實是依靠遙遠國度的資金支撐起來的。

History repeats itself. These days Paul Kagame, president of Rwanda since 2000, has replaced Mr Museveni as many donors’ African leader of choice. Though he has lost a little of his lustre, Mr Kagame is credited with ending the 1994 genocide and bringing rapid development. Today, donors account for 30-40 per cent of Rwanda’s operating budget. The price of all that love means turning a blind eye to some of the seamier aspects of the Kagame administration: political assassinations, hollowed-out institutions and a cowed press.

歷史往往重複自己。如今，自2000年以來一直擔任盧旺達總統的保羅•卡加梅(Paul Kagame)已取代穆塞韋尼，成爲許多捐贈機構偏愛的非洲領導人。雖然不如以前那樣風光，但卡加梅因結束了1994年種族大屠殺併爲本國帶來快速發展而受到讚揚。如今，援助贈款佔到了盧旺達政府預算的30%至40%。這種偏愛的代價意味着對卡加梅政府比較陰暗的一些方面——政治暗殺、機構空心化以及受打壓的媒體——視而不見。

True to type, Mr Kagame has started to see himself as indispensable. After amending the constitution, he is now seeking a third term, a possible prelude to a fourth and fifth. That could see him maintain his hold on power until 2034. If he makes it anything like that long, he will have joined the ranks of the overstayers. By then, his reputation will almost certainly be in tatters.

典型的是，卡加梅開始將自己視爲不可或缺的人物。修改憲法之後，他如今正在尋求第3屆任期，這可能成爲其第4和第5屆任期的序曲，從而讓他一直掌權至2034年。若果真如此，他將加入那些把持權力過久的領導人行列。到那時，他的聲望幾乎肯定將會一落千丈。