歐洲被忽視的政治風險 Risks to Europe that economists fail to see

Politicians like to behave as if the laws of economics do not exist. We learnt that lesson the hard way in the eurozone crisis, dealing with the consequences of a single currency created without key economic safeguards.

政治家喜歡罔顧經濟規律行事。在歐元區危機中，我們付出慘重代價（被迫應對在創建時缺乏關鍵經濟保障的單一貨幣帶來的後果）才吸取了這一教訓。

On the other hand, economists and investors have a habit of ignoring the laws of politics. That is equally wrong and could turn out to be particularly risky in Europe over the next couple of years.

另一方面，經濟學家與投資者也經常忽視政治規律。這同樣也是錯誤的，在未來幾年尤其可能給歐洲帶來風險。

There is no pressing economic crisis confronting the continent in 2016, thank goodness.

謝天謝地，2016年的歐洲不會面臨緊迫的經濟危機。

There will be continued worries about Greece, and maybe Spain given the uncertain result in its recent election. At first glance, however, it is difficult to see anything that will cause the kind of jitters and contagion that we have seen in financial markets in each of the past five years.

對希臘的擔憂將繼續，也許還有西班牙——考慮到後者近期大選結果帶來的變數。然而，大體看來，很難看到有什麼事情將引發過去五年每年都出現在金融市場中的那種恐慌情緒以及傳染效應。

There are also few events in the political calendar that could disturb markets or the economy, with a key exception being the possible UK referendum on membership of the EU. Mostly, we have to wait until 2017 for the big set-piece events, including general and presidential elections in Germany and France.

政治議程上也幾乎沒有可能衝擊市場或歐元區經濟的事件，只有一個重要例外，那就是英國可能將對是否繼續留在歐盟進行公投。基本上來說，重頭戲要等到2017年，包括德法兩國大選。

This outlook has many people in the markets feeling calm about Europe, for once. Some would even say that the “doom-loop”, between Europe’s politics and its economy that so often infected markets during the financial crisis, has finally been broken. We can but hope.

這一前景讓很多市場人士這次總算對歐洲鬆了一口氣。有人甚至表示，那種在金融危機期間曾如此頻繁地影響市場的歐洲政治與經濟之間的“惡性循環”終於被打破了。我們只能希望確實如此。

Growth is not nearly strong enough in the eurozone at the moment and it is unlikely to be a lot faster in the coming year. With consumption and consumer confidence picking up and unemployment continuing to fall, however, the recovery does now have its own momentum.

眼下，歐元區的增長還遠不夠強勁，而且不太可能在未來一年大幅提速。然而，隨着消費及消費者信心的回升以及失業率持續下降，經濟復甦自身的慣性如今已經形成。

November’s terrorist attacks in Paris will have delivered a short-term hit to the economy in France and Belgium but I do not know many economists cutting their forecasts for growth in 2016 because of fears of a new terrorist attack — or the migrant crisis.

巴黎11月的恐怖襲擊短期而言肯定對法國、比利時的經濟造成了衝擊，但我未聽說有多少經濟學家因爲擔憂發生新的恐怖襲擊或者移民危機而調低對2016年歐元區經濟增長的預期。

In fact, many economists have argued that the net effect of the influx of migrants will be positive, both in the short term and further off. The additional spending associated with the crisis, especially in Germany, will mean a net stimulus at a time when the overall fiscal stance in Europe is looser than it has been.

事實上，許多經濟學家認爲，不論從短期還是長遠來看，移民涌入的影響都是利大於弊的。移民危機帶來的額外支出（尤其是在德國）對於整體財政狀況比過去更加寬鬆的歐洲而言將意味着淨刺激。

Looking through an economic lens, the massive influx of people from Syria and elsewhere, many of them highly skilled, also appears to offer a long-term boost to economic potential for a country such as Germany, whose working-age population would otherwise be set to shrink.

從經濟視角看，敘利亞及其他地區移民（其中許多都有一技之長）的大規模涌入似乎也對一些國家的經濟潛力帶來長遠的提振，例如勞動年齡人口原本勢必將萎縮的德國。

This narrow economic take on the migrant crisis is probably right as far as it goes. The political storms buffeting Europe are unlikely to derail the recovery soon but experience suggests some longer-term reasons to worry.

對移民危機的這種僅從經濟角度考慮所得出的觀點本身很可能是正確的。衝擊歐洲的政治風暴短期內不太可能破壞經濟復甦，但過去的經歷表明，從中長期來看我們有理由擔憂。

One lesson is that something that looks like an overwhelming economic positive can rapidly turn into a negative if the politics go in the other direction.

教訓之一是，從經濟角度而言異常有益的事件可能迅速變得不利——如果它在政治上的影響朝不利方向發展的話。

That sounds blindingly plain but it was not that obvious in the UK in the 1990s and early 2000s, when net immigration from inside and outside the EU picked up sharply.

如今這聽起來再明顯不過，但在上世紀90年代以及本世紀頭幾年的英國並不如此，彼時，來自歐盟內部及外部的淨移民數量出現了大幅上升。

For economists and businesses the benefits of this influx of labour were clear, yet its political and social consequences have helped put the UK on a path to potentially leaving the EU. For most in the markets and a big chunk of the business community, that would be a seriously negative outcome.

對經濟學家及企業界而言，勞動力大量涌入帶來的好處顯而易見，但其帶來的政治及社會方面的後果卻將英國推上了有可能脫離歐盟的道路。對於大多數市場人士以及大部分企業界人士而言，這將是一個非常不利的結果。

A similar dynamic has played out much more quickly in Germany where, since summer, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s popularity has been hit by her brave welcome to hundreds of thousands of migrants.

在德國，類似局勢演化的速度要快得多：今夏以來，德國總理安格拉默克爾(Angela Merkel)勇敢歡迎數十萬移民的姿態已使其支持率下滑。

So along with the positive fiscal and supply-side consequences of migration, investors may now have to add a rather large negative: that the most effective politician in Europe could be unable to stand for re-election.

因此，除了移民在財政和勞動力供給方面帶來的積極影響，投資者如今或許還不得不考慮一個巨大的不利影響：歐洲最有建樹的那位政治家可能無法再競選連任。

We learnt in the eurozone crisis that a single currency area is only as strong as its weakest link. Now we are learning a similar lesson when it comes to Europe’s single border.

從歐元區危機中，我們曾吸取到這樣一個教訓，即單一貨幣區整體的穩固程度，不會超過其最薄弱之處的穩固程度。如今，在歐洲的單一邊界問題上，我們正在得出類似的教訓。

If people feel that their security, economic or personal, is being put at risk by integration, it will become that much harder to achieve the deeper co-operation that security and faster growth will probably require.

如果人們認爲一體化使得自己的經濟或人身安全處於危險境地，那麼，要實現安全與更快速增長所需要的更深層次合作將變得困難得多。

Ask David Cameron, UK prime minister, whose team is terrified that the migrant issue will end up dominating the referendum campaign.

問一問英國首相戴維慍蕓倫(David Cameron)就知道了：他的手下正在擔心移民問題最終主導退歐公投造勢活動。

How much should we worry about Europe? At the height of the eurozone crisis the answer to that question was clear: the risks of broader contagion were such that policymakers, investors and ordinary humans all had to worry about Europe a lot.

我們應該在多大程度上爲歐洲感到擔憂？在歐元區危機最危急的時候，答案很明確：當時危機進一步蔓延的風險非常高，政策制定者、投資者和普通民衆都必須爲歐洲感到非常擔憂。

Now that the trouble has shifted from economics to geopolitics and migrants, it is not so obvious why investors should fret.

眼下問題已從經濟領域轉移至地緣政治與移民領域，投資者爲什麼應該感到擔憂就不是那麼明顯了。

The short-term economic outlook looks calm but no one should be in any doubt that if these crises are handled badly, they hold long-term risks for Europe’s economy.

短期經濟前景看起來令人放心，但任何人都不應有任何質疑的是，如果應對不好這些危機，它們將爲歐洲經濟帶來長遠風險。