奧巴馬難得的勝利周 Obama’s presidential renaissance

Sometimes change tiptoes up and surprises you. There could be no better illustration of America’s dramatic week than the White House lit up in rainbow colours as the confederate flag was lowered in the south. There was no starker moment than President Barack Obama urging the Christian doctrine of grace on the bible belt in the town where the first shot of the civil war was fired. Last week reality put the most far-fetched episode of West Wing into the shade — and there is probably more to come. Is Mr Obama finally ushering in the change he promised?

有時變革悄然而至，讓你感到驚訝。沒有什麼能比“聯邦旗”在南方降下，而白宮點亮各色彩燈更能說明美國戲劇性的一週。沒有什麼比美國總統巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)在打響南北戰爭第一槍的《聖經》地帶(Bible belt)小鎮，強調基督教恩典教義更讓人吃驚的時刻了。哪怕是《白宮風雲》(West Wing)中最讓人難以置信的劇集，與上週的現實相比仍相形見絀——未來還可能出現更多這樣的情況。奧巴馬終於帶來他承諾的變革了嗎？

The optics certainly favour that view. A week ago Mr Obama faced the spectre of his signature healthcare bill unravelling in the Supreme Court and the defeat of his big trade agenda in the Pacific and the Atlantic. In either case, his presidency would have turned rapidly lame duck. But a week is a long time in politics, as they say. Both disasters were averted — one by a conservative-majority Supreme Court, the other at the hands of a Republican Congress. Events peaked with what Mr Obama described as the legal “thunderbolt” that put same sex marriage on an equal footing across all 50 states.

樂觀者當然支持這一觀點。一週之前，奧巴馬還面臨着其標誌性的醫改法案被最高法院否決，以及分別橫跨太平洋和大西洋的兩大貿易議程遭遇挫敗的幽靈。如果其中任何一種情況發生，奧巴馬都會迅速變成跛腳鴨總統。但正如他們所講，一週對於政治而言很漫長。兩場災難都得以倖免——分別歸功於保守派佔多數的最高法院和共和黨控制的國會。事態發展的最高潮是美國最高法院關於同性婚姻在全美50個州合法的裁決，這被奧巴馬稱爲法律“霹靂”。

Then came his eulogy to Clementa Pinckney, the pastor slain the previous week by a white supremacist along with eight of his congregation. With a force no other president could have summoned, Mr Obama drew on the revivalist oratory of black church tradition to shame the culture of hatred that led to the massacre. Even by Mr Obama’s standards, it was a striking performance that combined a repudiation of the south’s racist history with a rallying cry to a new era of social justice. Those who saw it could sense the “arc of history” bending in Mr Obama’s direction and the fierce relevance of his story. Mr Obama went to Charleston to speak at a funeral. He left at the emotional pinnacle of his presidency.

接着是他向牧師克萊門塔•平克尼(Clementa Pinckney)致悼詞，平克尼與八名會衆在之前的一週被一名白人至上主義者殺害。帶着一種其他總統不具備的力量，奧巴馬運用黑人教堂傳統的復興主義式演講，譴責了導致這場大屠殺的仇恨文化。即使按奧巴馬本人的標準，這也是一場驚人的演講，它將對南方種族主義歷史的批判與對社會正義新時代的強烈呼籲結合在一起。那些看到奧巴馬演講的人，可以感覺到“歷史的穹頂”正向奧巴馬的方向彎曲，也能感受到他的演講的強大感染力。奧巴馬來到查爾斯頓市，在葬禮上發表了演講，在達到他總統生涯中以情感打動人的頂峯後離開。

Yet change is a slippery thing. Five years ago, when Mr Obama signed the Affordable Care Act, he said: “This is what change looks like.” It was a defiant statement after months of bitter wrangling. Last week, after countless Republican attempts to repeal “Obamacare”, and dozens of lawsuits, the Supreme Court rejected the latest challenge to the law. More in relief than defiance, Mr Obama repeated his 2010 sentiments: the law was here to stay. This time, however, he had an eye on the 2016 election. Every Republican candidate has vowed to abolish the statute if they are elected to the White House. Given the likelihood there will be a Republican Congress after 2016, Mr Obama’s most consequential reform is still not entirely safe. There are also more lawsuits pending. Even now it does not qualify as change you can take to the bank.

然而，變革並非易事。奧巴馬五年前簽署《平價醫療法》(Affordable Care Act)時說：“這就是變革的樣子。”這是幾個月激烈爭吵後的挑釁性聲明。在共和黨無數次試圖廢除“奧巴馬醫改”(Obamacare)以及發生許多訴訟之後，上週最高法院駁回了對該法律的最新挑戰。奧巴馬以一種更顯寬慰而非挑釁的口吻重申了他2010年的觀點：這一法律會存續下去。但這次，他還要考慮2016年大選。每位共和黨競選人都發誓，如果他們入主白宮，將廢除該項法令。考慮到2016年之後可能是共和黨控制國會，奧巴馬最重要的改革仍然並非完全無虞。而且，還會有更多訴訟。即使現在，你也不能把它當成板上釘釘的變革。

The most durable changes usually come from below. That is the case with gay marriage. Opponents of last week’s Supreme Court ruling claim it amounted to “legislating from the bench”, much as in 1973 when the court legalised abortion in Roe v Wade. In fact, the Supreme Court was putting its seal on what has been a vertiginous shift in US society. A decade ago, more than two-thirds of Americans opposed same sex marriage. Now roughly 60 per cent support it. Even before last week’s ruling it was legal in 38 states. Only in 2012 did Mr Obama feel bold enough to add his own backing and then only because Joe Biden, the vice-president, let slip his support. Mr Obama has not played a big role in the gay rights revolution. But has ridden the wave well.

最爲持久的變革通常來自於底層。同性婚姻就是這樣的情況。反對美國最高法院上週裁決的人聲稱，該裁決相當於“法官一意孤行”，與1973年法院在羅伊訴韋德案(Roe V. Wade)中使墮胎合法化的情況類似。事實上，最高法院是在對美國社會的一個令人目眩的轉變蓋棺定論。10年前，超過2/3的美國人反對同性婚姻。如今，約有60%的人支持同性婚姻。即使在上週最高法院裁決前，同性婚姻已經在38個州合法。到2012年奧巴馬才感到有足夠的勇氣表示自己的支持，而那時只是因爲副總統喬•拜登(Joe Biden)把他的支持態度說漏了嘴。在同性戀權利革命的道路上，奧巴馬並沒有發揮出多麼重要的作用，但他確實是與時逐勢的高手。

Other kinds of change are so glacial they are hard to detect. Such is the case in US race relations. Many thought Mr Obama’s election in 2008 would finally close a chapter on centuries of racial division. But as Mr Obama said in his eulogy, nothing can be taken for granted — even under America’s first black president. Tensions between many US police forces and African Americans are as heightened today as at any time in recent memory. Large chunks of US society remain institutionally racist — from prison sentencing to job interview bias. The wealth gap between African Americans and whites is wider than when Mr Obama took office. Meanwhile, politics in the US south remains stubbornly wedded to its “Lost Cause”.

其他變革太過緩慢，以至於很難察覺。比如美國的種族關係。很多人認爲奧巴馬2008年當選總統最終將終結美國長達數世紀的種族分裂章節。但是正如奧巴馬在悼詞中所說的那樣，凡事不能想當然——即使是在美國第一位黑人總統的治理下。如今美國警方和非裔美國人之間的緊張關係，嚴重程度與近期記憶中的任何時候沒有兩樣。大部分的美國社會從制度上仍然帶有種族主義色彩——從監獄判刑到求職面試的偏見等方方面面。如今非裔美國人與白人之間的財富差距甚至比奧巴馬就任時還要大。與此同時，美國南方政治仍然頑固地堅持着“註定失敗的努力”(Lost Cause)。

Will Charleston make it different? Following the massacre, some southern states finally agreed to get rid of the Confederate flag. But it is a symbol. A bigger problem is the ease with which fanatics can acquire guns, something against which Mr Obama has long railed. He reiterated his plea in Charleston last week. But the chances of Congress doing anything to hinder gun sales before he leaves office are very slim.

查爾斯頓事件會帶來不同嗎？在槍擊案發生後，南方一些州最終同意放棄“聯邦旗”。但這是一種象徵。更大的問題在於，狂熱分子可以輕鬆獲得槍支，奧巴馬長久以來一直指責這一點。上週，他在查爾斯頓重申了自己的呼籲。但是國會在奧巴馬離任前採取行動來阻止槍支銷售的可能性微乎其微。

Sometimes things change so that they can stay the same. Gun control is the American north’s lost cause. At other times, such as with the healthcare law, change is painfully built, “brick by brick, calloused hand by calloused hand”, as Mr Obama put it after his first election. Last week brought to the fore both the majesty and limits of the US presidency. It would not have been the same on anyone else’s watch.

有時事情發生改變才能保持原樣。槍支管控是美國北方“註定失敗的努力”。在其他情況下，比如醫療法，變革是在痛苦中“一磚一瓦，千辛萬苦”地堆砌出來的，正如奧巴馬在第一次當選後的演講中所說。上週的事件同時凸顯了美國總統之位的至高權威和侷限性。換成任何其他人在奧巴馬的位子上，情況都不會一樣。