TPP談判美國難容有失

In the sparring between China and the US over leadership in Asia, Beijing recently landed a tidy, if almost accidental, punch. Washington’s attempt to lead a boycott of the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ended in farce after Britain broke ranks and other nations from Germany to South Korea fell over themselves to join.

在中美這場對亞洲領導權的爭奪戰中，北京最近打出了漂亮的一拳，儘管那一拳贏得近乎意外。華盛頓原本企圖帶頭抵制中國牽頭籌建的亞洲基礎設施投資銀行（Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank，簡稱亞投行），然而在英國打亂了隊形、從德國到韓國的其他國家也爭相加入之後，美國的企圖最終淪爲笑柄。

If round one was a defeat for America, round two hangs in the balance. Washington is trying to convince 11 Pacific nations to join a “next generation” trade agreement called the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Billed as the most important trade initiative since the collapse of the 2001 launch of the World Trade Organisation’s Doha round, it would bind two of the biggest economies — the US and Japan — into a bloc covering 40 per cent of global output. Supporters say it would also reaffirm US commitment to the region at a time when China’s economic pull is growing.

如果說美國在雙方的第一輪較量中落敗，第二輪雙方則勢均力敵。華盛頓正努力說服11個太平洋沿岸國家加入所謂《跨太平洋夥伴關係協定》（Trans-Pacific Partnership，簡稱TPP）的“新一代”貿易協定。TPP被宣揚爲世貿組織(WTO)多哈回合談判（啓動於2001年）泡湯以來最重要的貿易協定，將把該地區兩個最大經濟體——美國和日本——納入同一個佔全球產出40%的貿易區。支持者表示，在中國的經濟吸引力日益上升之際，TPP還能再次確認美國對該地區的承諾沒有動搖。

The stakes are high. If the TPP disappoints — or worse still, if it is not concluded at all — it will be another embarrassing setback for US regional diplomacy. The omens are mixed at best.

TPP對美國事關重大。如果TPP表現令人失望甚至根本沒有達成，那麼將標誌着美國地區外交遭遇又一個令人難堪的挫折。目前的種種兆頭至多算是好壞摻半。

The TPP excludes China. That is quite an omission. It is also precisely the point. The region’s most important trading nation has not been invited to join on the grounds that its economy is too centrally planned and too rigged to be part of such a highfalutin arrangement. Yet in a peculiar display of diplomatic contortion, Vietnam — a country whose economy is as centrally planned and as rigged as the best of them — is somehow considered fit for entry.

TPP排除了中國。這是個挺大的遺漏，也正是有意爲之。該地區最重要的貿易國未獲邀加入，理由是其經濟太多地由中央政府計劃、受操縱太嚴重，因而不夠格參加這麼上檔次的協定。然而，不知爲什麼，經濟由中央政府計劃和受操縱程度絲毫不亞於中國的越南卻被認爲適合加入，離奇地顯示出美國在外交上的扭曲。

The exclusion of China serves twin objectives. Neither bears close scrutiny. The TPP is a “trade pivot” to Asia; the commercial equivalent of Washington’s commitment to remain militarily engaged in the region. Yet it is just as likely to annoy allies as reassure them.

排除中國能滿足兩個目的，但都經不起推敲。TPP是美國“重返亞洲”戰略的貿易版本，是華盛頓承諾在亞洲保持軍事威力的商業版本。然而，這個協定惹惱盟友與讓他們放心的可能性一樣大。

Almost all have expressed concern that some provisions intrude into their internal affairs. That is, indeed, the point of the TPP, which goes beyond tariff reduction to deal with “behind the border” issues thought to impede trade and investment. These include tendering processes, financial regulations, data protection rules and intellectual property laws. Opponents from Australia to Japan see it not as an act of US benevolence but rather as a charter for meddling in everything from pharmaceutical pricing to cigarette advertising.

幾乎所有國家都對一些條款干涉他們的內政表達了擔心。而這又確實是TPP的意義所在，它超越了降關稅，想要拿被認爲阻礙貿易和投資的“國內”事務開刀。這些事務包括招標過程、金融監管、數據保護規則以及知識產權法規。從澳大利亞到日本，反對這一點的國家都認爲，此舉並非體現了美國的善意，而是爲它干涉從藥品定價到香菸廣告的一切事務開出了許可證。

The other reason for shutting out China is also questionable. The hope is that Beijing, slighted by its exclusion, may be goaded into reforming its economy so it can join at a later stage. Some in Beijing would indeed like to call Washington’s bluff by seeking TPP membership. At least theoretically, China is already moving in a direction that might be conducive to that aim by allowing a greater role for market forces.

另一個排除中國的理由也值得質疑。這個理由是，希望中國在感受到被排除的輕慢後，能夠發奮改革經濟，以便以後能夠加入。北京方面有些人確實想要通過謀求加入TPP來戳穿華盛頓的假話。至少在理論上，中國允許市場發揮更大作用，已經在朝着可能有利於它加入TPP的方面前進。

Yet it is folly to imagine it will be induced to move more quickly to obtain membership of a club to which it has only the most grudging of invitations. More, Beijing is supporting alternative regional trade initiatives, including the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Pointedly, that is a club to which the US is not invited.

然而，對於一個最不歡迎中國的俱樂部，想象中國有動力加快腳步爭取成爲它的一員是愚蠢的。此外，北京還在支持其他區域性貿易協定，包括“區域全面經濟夥伴關係協定”(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)。顯然，這個協定是美國沒有獲邀的。

There is a further hitch. If the TPP is seen in much of Asia as designed for the benefit of US corporations, in the US itself it is regarded with equal suspicion. Most members of President Barack Obama’s Democratic Party are wary of trade deals, which they blame for hollowing out manufacturing jobs and suppressing middle-class wages. Consumer groups say the TPP will expose Americans to all sorts of evils from dodgy Vietnamese seafood to slack financial regulation.

還有一個難題。亞洲大部分國家都認爲，TPP是爲了美國企業的利益而設計的，而美國本身對這個協定也有同樣強烈的懷疑。巴拉克•奧巴馬(Barack Obama)總統所屬的民主黨大部分人都對貿易協定懷有戒心，他們譴責貿易協定是導致製造業就業崗位流向海外、中產階級工資停滯不前的原因。消費者團體表示，TPP會讓美國人面臨各種危險，從劣質越南海鮮、到不夠嚴格的金融監管。

The TPP is nonetheless regarded as one of Mr Obama’s best shots at a foreign policy legacy. If so, he could have sold it better to his own party. He remains uncomfortably reliant on the Republican majority in Congress to grant him the fast-track authority he needs to push it over the line.

然而，TPP仍被認爲可能成爲奧巴馬外交政策遺產中最棒的成就之一。如果真是這樣的話，他本可以讓所在的民主黨更好地爲自己買賬。他仍然要尷尬地依賴國會中的共和黨多數派給予他推進TPP所需要的“快車道”談判授權。

While most Republicans support a deal in the name of free trade, some on the Tea Party end of the spectrum are opposed. Others may deny Mr Obama the authority he needs out of spite. Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group consultancy, says the vote on trade promotion authority will be “razor thin”, though he believes ultimately Mr Obama will prevail.

雖然大多數共和黨人支持一項以自由貿易爲名義的協議，但一些極端的茶黨人士對此表示反對。還有人可能出於解恨的目的拒絕給予奧巴馬授權。諮詢公司歐亞集團(Eurasia Group)總裁伊恩•布雷默(Ian Bremmer)說，儘管他相信奧巴馬在關於“貿易促進授權”(trade promotion authority)的表決中最終會取勝，但也只是“險勝”。

Even if TPP is finally concluded, the chances are it will be too watered down to satisfy trade purists and too intrusive to please Washington’s Pacific partners. For Beijing, fresh from its triumph over the infrastructure bank, the whole spectacle must be quite amusing.

即使TPP最終締結完成，很大的可能性是，它將被削弱至無法滿足貿易純粹主義者，同時又太具有侵入性而無法使美國的太平洋合作伙伴們高興。在剛剛取得亞投行勝利的中國看來，整個場面一定相當有趣。