頁岩氣革命將拉大美歐差距

This winter Jim Ratcliffe, the British billionaire founder of Ineos, the chemicals group, is trying to spark a local shale gas revolution. He has offered to share 6 per cent of future revenues with communities or landowners if they work with Ineos to develop the energy source – far more than anything offered in the UK before.

今年冬季，英國億萬富翁、化工製造商英力士(Ineos)的創始人吉姆•拉特克里夫(Jim Ratcliffe)希望掀起一場本土的頁岩氣革命。他提出，如果社區或土地所有者與英力士合作開發頁岩資源，就會給予他們6%的未來收益，這遠遠超過英國以前的分成比例。

“This will be a game changer,” he argues, explaining that he copied the idea of a 6 per cent pledge from America, where similar handouts have helped start a dramatic expansion of shale gas extraction since 2010.

他表示：“這將改變局面，”並解釋稱，6%分成的想法是從美國照搬過來的。自2010年以來，美國類似的分成計劃幫助啓動了頁岩氣的大規模開採。

In truth, the chances of this offer being widely accepted are not high: extracting shale gas remains so contentious in the UK that it has hitherto largely been blocked. But Mr Ratcliffe deserves a cheer for trying. To understand why, take a look at the latest World Economic Outlook report from the International Monetary Fund, released this week.

實際上，這種分成承諾得到廣泛認可的機率並不高：在英國，頁岩氣開採仍備受爭議，迄今爲止基本上遭到否決。但我們有必要爲拉特克里夫的嘗試歡呼。要明白這一點，先讓我們看一看國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)上週公佈的最新的《世界經濟展望》(World Economic Outlook)報告吧。

Buried in the document is a sidebar which tries to calculate the impact of the shale revolution on US industry. The results are sobering, not just for European industrial groups, but taxpayers and politicians too.

該報告中有一份不起眼的補充閱讀，試圖計算出頁岩革命對美國行業的影響。無論對歐洲工業集團還是對納稅人和政界人士來說，其結果均發人深省。

As the IMF points out, the revolution in the US has caused natural gas prices to fall sharply there, even as they have risen in Europe and Japan. This is because gas, unlike oil, cannot be easily transported around the world, meaning that regional prices vary widely according to the location of the energy source.

正如IMF所指出的那樣，美國的頁岩革命導致國內天然氣價格大幅下跌，即便歐洲和日本的價格卻在上漲。這是因爲，與石油不同，天然氣不容易在全球運輸，這意味着，區域天然氣價格可能會因資源位置不同而有極大的差異。

Earlier this year a paper released by the US Federal Reserve calculated that these price variations had boosted the output of American manufacturers by 3 per cent since 2006, while raising investment by 10 per cent and jobs by 2 per cent; the impact on specific energy-linked industries was far higher. However, the IMF’s research suggests that the difference in energy costs has boosted US manufacturing exports by 6 per cent, and it argues that each 10 per cent fall in the relative price of natural gas in the US will boost US industrial production by a further 0.7 per cent, compared to that of Europe.

今年早些時候，美聯儲(Fed)在其發表的一篇文章中估計，自2006年以來，這種價格差異使得美國製造商的產出擴大3%，投資增長10%，就業增加2%；具體的能源相關行業受到的影響則更大得多。然而，IMF的研究顯示，能源成本的差異導致美國製造業出口增長6%，並辯稱，美國天然氣價格相對歐洲每下降10%，工業產出就會高出0.7%。

At first glance, this 0.7 per cent differential may not sound important. But if this gap is maintained over several years, the impact for competitiveness and output will be significant. It is not just the productivity statistics that matter; what the shale gas revolution has also done is create something that the IMF report does not mention: a transatlantic gap in psychology.

乍一看，這個0.7%的差距可能聽上去不太重要。但如果這個差距維持多年的話，它對競爭力和產出的影響將是巨大的。重要的不僅僅是生產率數據；頁岩氣革命還產生了一些IMF報告沒有提及的東西：大西洋兩岸的心理差距。

For many business leaders in America today, shale gas has not merely lowered energy costs; it has also fostered new respect for technological innovation. Think about it. A decade ago it seemed almost impossible to imagine that America might ever break its dependence on Middle East oil imports, let alone see some rust-belt industries become competitive.

對於如今美國很多的企業領袖而言，頁岩氣不僅降低了能源成本；它還培育出人們對技術創新的新的尊重。想想看，就在十年前，美國打破對中東石油進口的依賴還幾乎是不可想象的，更別提讓一些“鏽帶”行業獲得競爭力了。

Shifting attitudes are helping to spur a second change: as American businesses enjoy the benefits of lower energy costs, a new spirit of collaboration is taking hold among environmentalists, politicians and energy groups. Take Colorado. Previously, environmental groups were strongly opposed to the expansion of shale gas. But some, such as the Environmental Defense Fund, are now working with John Hickenlooper, the governor, to find ways to deal with issues such as methane gas leakage or water contamination. “There is a recognition now that people need to work together,” observes Fred Krupp, head of EDF. “This is spreading to other states.”

態度的轉變幫助激發了第二種變化：隨着美國企業享受到能源成本下降帶來的好處，環保主義者、政界人士以及能源組織升騰起一種新的合作精神。以科羅拉多州爲例。此前，環保組織強烈反對大規模開採頁岩氣，但現在美國環保協會(Environmental Defense Fund)等一些環保組織正與該州州長約翰•希肯盧珀(John Hickenlooper)合作，以設法解決甲烷氣泄漏或水資源污染等問題。“現在的共識是人們需要合作，”美國環保協會負責人弗雷德•克魯珀(Fred Krupp)認爲，“這種共識正擴大到其他州。”

Not so in Europe; or not yet. This week Nick Clegg, the leader of Britain’s Liberal Democrat party, threw his weight behind shale gas. But many British politicians remain suspicious of fracking, and environmental groups are stridently opposed. In France and Germany, antipathy is even more intense. “There is a such a big gap [in attitudes],” laments Edmond Alphandéry, a former French finance minister.

歐洲則並非如此，或者說迄今尚未如此。最近，英國自由民主黨領袖尼克•克雷格(Nick Clegg)表態支持頁岩氣，但英國的很多政界人士仍對壓裂技術存有疑慮，環保組織也表示強烈反對。法國和德國對頁岩氣的反感甚至更爲強烈。法國前財長埃德蒙•阿爾方戴利(Edmond Alphandéry)哀嘆道：“（歐美態度）天壤之別。”

This gap partly reflects differences in geography: Britain is a crowded island, and in France the main shale gas reserves are found in places such as Paris and Provence. There are big differences in the legal structure of landholding too. But the other problem, it seems, is one of zeitgeist. American business leaders (and voters) have an incentive to gamble on bold technological change; in Europe, it is harder to dream about pleasant surprises.

這種態度上的差異一定程度上反映出地理上的差異：英國是一個人口衆多的島國，而在法國，頁岩氣儲量集中在巴黎和普羅旺斯等地。關於土地所有權的法律架構也存在巨大差異。但另一個問題似乎在於當下的一種時代思潮。美國企業領導人（以及選民）願意押注於大膽的技術革新；而在歐洲，則很難奢望此類驚喜。

Perhaps a few bold pioneers such as Mr Ratcliffe can help change this. It would be nice to hope so. But the longer shale gas remains a dirty word in Europe, the more the transatlantic gap in productivity – and psychology – will widen. And that is bad news for Europe, at a time when the continent needs every iota of growth it can find.

或許，拉特克里夫等少數大膽的開拓者能夠幫助改變這種局面。這樣想當然不錯。但歐洲對頁岩氣的反感時間越長，歐美生產率（和心理）的差距就會越大。在歐洲亟需任何增長機遇之際，這是一個壞消息。