軟件將蠶食1.2萬億美元的服裝業

Expanding on Mark Andreessen’s observation that “software is eating the world,” Asymco’s Horace Dediu took a close look Thursday at the industry he believes is next: Apparel.

硅谷著名投資人馬克o安德森曾經敏銳地指出，“應用軟件正在蠶食世界”。上週四，研究公司Asymco的分析師霍雷斯o德迪歐進一步論述了這種觀點。在仔細觀察了該產業之後，他得出結論：服裝業將成爲下一個被蠶食的行業。

Already, he writes,

他寫道：

Software has ‘eaten’ large portions of entertainment (e.g. Pixar, iTunes, video games), telecommunications (iPhone, Android, Messaging), various professions including journalism, management and law, and is entering transportation, energy and health care and poised over banking, finance and government.”

“應用軟件已經“蠶食”了相當份額的娛樂業【比如皮克斯動畫工作室（Pixar）、iTunes、電子遊戲】、通訊業（iPhone、安卓、短消息）以及包括新聞、管理和法律在內的其他許多行業。它們正在進入交通運輸、能源和衛生保健領域，並做好了進攻銀行、金融和政府部門的準備。”

Apparel, he believes, is a $1.2 trillion industry ripe for disruption.

德迪歐認爲，規模高達1.2萬億美元的服裝業已經到了分崩離析的時候了。

This amount of money is not spent only to protect the wearer from the elements — any more than the money spent on telecommunications is spent to convey vital information. Most of the value in apparel, perhaps 80%, is spent on solving psychological needs.

人們花錢買衣服不僅是爲了抵禦自然環境的影響，就像付通訊費不僅是爲了傳達重要信息一樣。人們在服裝上花的大部分錢、也許有80%，是爲了滿足自己的心理需求。

“And therein lies the opportunity. As the value is beyond functional, substitution of psychological jobs by new products is a matter of engineering better solutions. Consider the behavior of US teens: anecdotally, their spending on apparel is fadingas the solution to feeling good about themselves increasingly relies on a device and service. Already, in this context, apparel retail is in crisis while buying shifts to devices.”

“這其中蘊藏着機遇。既然服裝的價值遠非其功能性，那麼我們完全可以用更好的解決方案來替代新產品在心理層面的作用。看看美國青少年的行爲：舉個例子，隨着他們越來越依靠電子設備和服務來獲取良好的自我感覺，他們在服裝上的花費正變得越來越少。而在這樣的背景下，隨着購買力向電子設備傾斜，服裝零售業就會陷入危機。”

“To know who’s already planning for this,” he concludes with a sly reference to Apple, “you can follow the trade news on the hiring of talent.”

“那麼誰正在爲這一趨勢厲兵秣馬呢？”在最後，他隱晦地點出了蘋果公司：“你可以看看業內的招聘消息。”