朝鮮清洗張成澤引發政局不穩猜疑

North Korea's highest-profile leadership purge since Kim Jong Un took power is viewed by outside observers as a move to consolidate power that could trigger instability if it upsets the balance between the military and the ruling Party.

在外部觀察人士看來，朝鮮自金正恩(Kim Jong Un)上臺以來最受關注的領導層清洗是金正恩爲鞏固權力而採取的一步行動，但如果清洗打破了軍方和執政黨之間的平衡，有可能影響政局穩定。

On Monday, North Korean state television showed Mr. Kim's uncle, Jang Song Thaek, being dragged out of a meeting by security officials, reinforcing the unusually public downfall of the de facto No. 2 in the regime.

朝鮮國家電視臺週一播出了朝鮮政壇實際上的二號人物、金正恩姑父張成澤(Jang Song Thaek)被安全人員拖出某會議室的畫面，這讓他的倒臺更加不同尋常。

Mr. Jang and his associates were accused of a litany of 'antistate' crimes, ranging from corruption to womanizing and drug-taking, by a meeting of officials from the central committee of North Korea's Workers' Party on Sunday.

週日，勞動黨中央政治局擴大會議宣佈，張成澤及其黨羽犯下了叛國罪，還包括腐敗、與女性搞不正當關係、吸毒等罪行。

The report was carried on the front page of North Korea's main Newspaper, with a large photo of Mr. Kim overseeing the meeting.

相關報道刊登在朝鮮主要報紙的頭版，還配了一張大幅照片，顯示金正恩在主持這次擴大會議。

Mr. Jang's fate is unknown. One report from a radio station in Seoul run by North Korean defectors said he had been executed. South Korean intelligence officials believe some of Mr. Jang's aides have been killed.

張成澤未來的命運如何還不得而知。首爾一家由脫北者運營的電臺報道說，張成澤已被處死。韓國情報機構官員認爲，張成澤的幾名手下已經被殺。

The removal of Mr. Jang, a man believed to have acted as a regent for the 30-something leader, marks Mr. Kim's boldest purge since taking power at the end of 2011.

據信，張成澤曾擔任朝鮮這位30歲左右領導人的攝政者角色，而他的下臺是金正恩自2011年底上臺以來最大膽的一次清洗行動。

As much as the disposal of a figure like Mr. Jang surprised North Korea watchers, so did the stage-managed show to convict him in front of senior members of the ruling party.

不但張成澤這種級別的人物被清洗讓外界觀察人士感到意外，在執政黨高級官員面前上演的“定罪秀”也讓這些人士吃驚不已。

The purge even extended to film. In a documentary aired on state television on Saturday about Mr. Kim's inspection of a military unit, Mr. Jang was removed from a total of 13 scenes, compared with a previous version of the program, South Korea's Yonhap News Agency reported.

清洗活動還延伸到了膠片上。韓國的韓聯社(Yonhap News Agency)報道稱，在上週六朝鮮國家電視臺播放的一個有關金正恩視察某部隊的紀錄片中，與之前播放的一個版本相比，張成澤的身影從13個鏡頭中被刪除。

The purge could be an effort by Mr. Kim to exert power over the party following a succession of purges to rein in the military.

這次清洗可能是金正恩在爲控制軍隊進行的一系列清洗之後，爲控制執政黨做出的努力。

Last year Mr. Kim removed Ri Yong Ho as chief of the general staff of the Korean People's Army. Since then he has cycled through three top generals. Mr. Jang has represented North Korea in economic talks with China.

去年金正恩解除了李英浩(Ri Yong Ho)朝鮮人民軍總參謀長一職。從那之後，他連續替換了三名高級將領。張成澤曾代表朝鮮與中國進行經濟會談。

Political purges are in the DNA for Mr. Kim. His grandfather, North Korea's first ruler, Kim Il Sung, periodically ousted entire factions that posed a threat or disagreed with his views, starting from the late 1950s.

金正恩的身體裏流淌着政治清洗的血液。金正恩的祖父、朝鮮首位統治者金日成(Kim Il Sung)從上世紀50年代末開始，便會不時地剷除對其構成一定威脅或與其意見相左的整個派系。

Under the current dictator's father, Kim Jong Il, senior officials were killed or ousted as scapegoats for policy failure.

金正恩的父親金正日(Kim Jong Il)當權時，每當政策失敗，總會有高級官員因此背黑鍋，被殺或罷免。

The younger Mr. Kim has culled close to half of the top military leaders and other officials who served under his father. While some argue that his succession of purges show he is effectively consolidating power, others express concern about whether he will be able to manage the competing interests under his charge.

那些曾效命於其父金正日的高級軍事將領和其他官員，已有近一半遭金正恩清洗。有人認爲，金正恩對清洗的繼承表明，他實際上是在鞏固權力。也有人對他是否能夠協調屬下的利益之爭表示擔心。

A difficult balancing act between the military and the party is at the core of North Korea policy. Shortly after his ascent to power, Mr. Kim's regime adopted an ideology known as byungjin that simultaneously prioritizes economic development and nuclear weapons, which North Korea calls its nonnegotiable 'treasured sword.'

朝鮮政策的核心是尋求軍隊與執政黨之間的平衡，這是一個艱難的過程。金正恩上臺後不久，其政權便採取了名爲“並行發展”(byungjin)的意識形態，即同時優先發展經濟和核武器，朝鮮將此稱爲不容商榷的“寶劍”。

Mismatched policies and dueling factions could unsettle the regime. 'The biggest danger to the regime remains from within,' said Scott Snyder, Washington-based director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations. 'It could be that the steps that Kim Jong Un is taking are steps that are potentially corrosive, rather than consolidationist.'

政策錯位和派系鬥爭可能會動搖政權。美國外交關係委員會(Council on Foreign Relations)美朝政策研究計劃駐華盛頓負責人斯奈德(Scott Snyder)說，朝鮮面臨的最大危險仍來自於內部。他說，金正恩目前採取的步驟可能具有潛在破壞性，並不利於政權的鞏固。

Mr. Kim's decision to remove Mr. Ri last year and Mr. Jang this year 'constitute signs of internal churn and serious infighting, not a smooth transition,' said Victor Cha, a former U.S. official and specialist on North Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

美國前官員、華盛頓戰略與國際研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)朝鮮問題專家Victor Cha說，金正恩分別於去年和今年剷除了李英浩和張成澤，他的決定說明朝鮮政壇內部出現了紛擾動盪和嚴重內訌，政權的過渡並不順利。

The danger from a U.S. perspective is that the regime may seek to address any lack of control with more aggressive behavior abroad, Mr. Cha said.

Cha說，從美國的角度看，眼下的危險是朝鮮政權可能會通過在海外做出更激進的舉動，從而尋求解決內部的缺乏控制問題。

The new array of senior military figures following Mr. Kim's purges may also be emboldened by the removal of Mr. Jang, sensing a power shift back to the armed forces. South Korean officials have expressed concerns about possible instability and military provocations by North Korea following the leadership purge.

金正恩的清洗動作完成後，新就任的高級軍事領導可能會因張成澤的倒臺而信心大增，他們會感覺到權力重心重新向軍隊轉移。韓國官員對此表達了憂慮，認爲朝鮮領導層洗牌結束後，可能會出現政局不穩和軍事挑 的情況。

On Monday the defense ministry said there had been no signs of unusual activity or movements by the North Korean militarybut added it was monitoring closely.

韓國國防部週一說，尚無跡象表明朝鮮軍隊展開了任何不尋常的活動或舉動。但同時表示，正密切關注事態發展。