朝鮮政治清洗 如在鋼絲上行走

Kim Jong Un's purging of Jang Song Thaek-his uncle and North Korea's de facto No. 2-is being widely described as a power-consolidation move by the young dictator.

外界普遍認爲，朝鮮年輕的獨裁者金正恩(Kim Jong Un)拿掉他的姑父、朝鮮政壇二號人物張成澤(Jang Song Thaek)是他爲鞏固政權而採取的一個行動。

But it could end up weakening Mr. Kim instead, North Korea watchers say, by disturbing the balance between two major power centers: the military and the more economically minded politicos in the ruling Worker's Party of Korea. That, in turn, could trigger more instability and more bellicose behavior from Pyongyang.

但朝鮮觀察人士說，如果此舉打破了朝鮮兩大權力中心的平衡，即軍方與執政黨朝鮮勞動黨(Worker's Party of Korea)內部更關心經濟問題的一派之間的平衡，最終反而會削弱金正恩的統治，並可能引發朝鮮方面進一步的動盪和好戰舉動。

While Mr. Jang, whose ouster was confirmed by North Korea on Monday, had positions of power in both the military and the party, he was more commonly associated with the party. His purging, some analysts say, may reflect a desire by Mr. Kim to hack at the party in the same way he already has at the military. Last year Mr. Kim removed Ri Yong-ho as chief of the general staff of the Korean People's Army, and since then he has cycled through three top generals.

朝鮮週一證實了張成澤被革職的消息。雖然張成澤在軍方和黨內均有職務，但他與朝鮮勞動黨聯繫更多。一些分析人士說，張成澤被清洗，可能是金正恩迫切希望用整軍的辦法整黨的一個信號。金正恩去年解除了李英浩(Ri Yong Ho)的朝鮮人民軍總參謀長職務，並接連撤換了三位高級將領。

playing competing factions in the regime against one another was a ruling method practiced by his father, Kim Jong Il, and grandfather, Kim Il Sung.

建立派系間的平衡是金正恩的父親金正日(Kim Jong Il)和他的祖父金日成(Kim Il Sung)慣用的統治手段。

'Kim Jong Un learned at the knee of the master,' says Bruce Klingner, a former U.S. intelligence analyst who's now senior research fellow for Northeast Asia at the Heritage Foundation in Washington.

前美國情報分析人員、現任美國傳統基金會(Heritage Foundation)東北亞資深研究員的Bruce Klingner說，金正恩是有家學淵源的。

'By taking out Jang, it shows that Kim Jong Un is willing to go against the second-most-powerful man in North Korea and to go against a senior party official, not just a senior military official,' he said.

Klingner表示，清洗張成澤說明金正恩願意剷除這個朝鮮政壇上的二號實權人物和這位黨內高層官員，而不僅僅是一位軍隊高級將領。

If it's true that Mr. Kim is trying to play the military and the party against each other, analysts cautioned that it will require a delicate tightrope walk.

分析人士表示，倘若金正恩的確是在尋求軍方與執政黨的平衡，那麼他需要極爲小心。

It will also turn a spotlight on Choe Ryong Hae, the 63-year-old protégé of Mr. Jang who is now perhaps the most prominent remaining leader under Mr. Kim. Mr. Choe had virtually no visibility outside North Korea until April 2012, when he was suddenly elevated to the upper echelons of North Korea's political and military establishment.

張成澤的落馬也使外界的關注焦點轉向63歲的崔龍海(Choe Ryong Hae)，他現在可能是金正恩政權中所剩的最有影響力的領導人。他在2012年4月突然被提拔進入朝鮮的政治和軍事高層，而在此之前幾乎沒有被海外關注過。

Though Mr. Choe's military credentials are rather thin, North Korean media often shows him in uniform. His travels around the country and his high-profile diplomatic trips to China-once duties of Mr. Jang-are closely tracked by Pyongyang's newspapers.

崔龍海的軍方資歷甚淺，但朝鮮媒體常常播放他身穿軍裝的畫面。當他視察全國並高調出訪中國時（訪華本來是張成澤的分內事），平壤的報紙進行了密切的追蹤報道。

In a sense, Mr. Kim has already tipped the importance of juggling civilian and military powers. Shortly after ascending to power in Pyongyang, he pushed forward byungjin, an ideology that purports to get around the guns-or-butter debate by arguing that North Korea can simultaneously pursue economic progress and nuclear weapons, which it continues to call its 'treasured sword.'

從某種意義上講，金正恩已經透露過平衡文職與軍方勢力的重要性。在接管朝鮮大權後不久，金正恩就提出了“並行發展”的戰略，試圖迴避要槍炮還是要黃油的爭論，主張朝鮮可以同時發展經濟和核武器。朝鮮一直將核武器稱作國家的“寶劍”。

But the difficulty of that balance troubles Scott Snyder, Washington-based director of the Program on U.S.-Korea Policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, who has argued that North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons will cost the regime about $100 billion in trade by the end of the decade.

但這種平衡的難度讓美國外交關係委員會(Council on Foreign Relations)美朝政策研究項目駐華盛頓的負責人斯奈德(Scott Snyder)感到不安。他認爲，到本十年結束時，發展核武器將讓朝鮮喪失約1,000億美元的貿易機會。

Mr. Snyder also pointed in a phone interview to recent contradictions in North Korea that suggest instability and confusion-for example, the simultaneous push for tourism to bring in revenue and the 'harsh, seemingly arbitrary detention of visitors.' (Over the weekend, North Korea released 85-year-old U.S. citizen after a six-week detention.)

斯奈德還在電話採訪中指出，朝鮮最近自相矛盾的表現也反映了內部的不穩定和混亂，例如，朝鮮一方面鼓勵旅遊業發展，希望獲得更多收入，一方面又嚴厲、甚至可能是武斷地拘押遊客。（朝鮮週末釋放了被拘六週的85歲美國公民。）

The mismatched policies could unsettle the regime, which Mr. Snyder argues is as opaque to insiders as it is to outsiders.

這種錯位的政策可能動搖朝鮮政權，斯奈德認爲，無論是朝鮮內部人士還是局外人都一樣搞不懂這些政策。

'The biggest danger to the regime remains from within,' Mr. Snyder said. 'It could be that the steps that Kim Jong Un is taking are steps that are potentially corrosive, rather than consolidationist.'

斯奈德說，朝鮮政權面臨的最大危險來自內部。金正恩目前採取的措施可能腐蝕其政權而不是鞏固政權。

'He's governing by taking advantage of opaqueness at a time when the regime is more penetrated, and transparency is being imposed from the outside, to a greater and greater degree,' he said.

他說，金正恩實行的是恐怖統治，靠的是不透明，然而朝鮮政權已受到更多滲透，透明度也從外部得到越來越多的強化。

The repeated purges marking the early days of Mr. Kim's rule contrast starkly with the rise of his father, who took the reins of the regime in 1994 after at least a decade-long transition period. By the time Kim Jong Il stepped into the supreme leadership role, there were few high-level eliminations left to carry out, and no confusion over where power truly lay, says Victor Cha, a former U.S. official and specialist on North Korea at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

金正恩統治初期就不斷實施清洗，這與他父親上臺時的情況形成鮮明對比。金正日經歷了至少10年的過渡期才於1994年掌握大權。美國前官員、華盛頓戰略與國際研究中心(Center for Strategic and International Studies)朝鮮問題專家Victor Cha說，金正日成爲朝鮮最高領導人時，已經沒有什麼高層清洗需要進行了，權力的真正歸屬也不再有疑問。

The younger Mr. Kim's decision to remove Mr. Ri last year and Mr. Jang this year 'constitute signs of internal churn and serious infighting, not a smooth transition,' Mr. Cha says.

Cha說，金正恩在去年和今年先後剷除李英浩和張成澤，他的決定說明朝鮮政壇內部出現了紛擾動盪和嚴重內訌，政權的過渡並不順利。

The danger, from a U.S. perspective, is that the regime may seek to address any lack of control with more aggressive behavior outside its boundaries, Mr. Cha says.

Cha說，從美國的角度看，眼下的危險是朝鮮可能用更激進的海外行動來轉移其政權的不穩定。

'Dictatorships going through unstable to become more militant, more bellicose,' Mr. Cha says.

他說，遇到過渡不穩定的情況，獨裁者往往會更加窮兵黷武。