日本不排除先發制人打擊朝鮮導彈基地

North Korean missiles now pose a “real threat”, Japan’s government said on Thursday as it stepped up its search for countermeasures, including potentially acquiring the capability for a first strike against Pyongyang’s missile bases.

日本政府週四表示，朝鮮導彈現在構成“真切威脅”。日本正加大力度尋找反制措施，包括潛在獲得先發制人打擊朝鮮導彈基地的能力。

Analysis of the four missiles North Korea launched on Monday has convinced Tokyo that a nuclear strike against one of its cities or a US military base is now a realistic possibility and that the country needs to strengthen its defences urgently.

對朝鮮本週一發射4枚導彈的分析讓日本政府確信，朝鮮對日本某個城市或美軍基地發起核打擊現在成了一個現實可能性，日本迫切需要加強防禦能力。

The moves highlight how North Korea is destabilising East Asia. Earlier this week China warned that Pyongyang was on a collision course with the Trump administration and retaliated against South Korean business over Seoul’s installation of US defence systems.

這些事態突顯朝鮮正如何讓東亞變得不穩定。本週早些時候，中國警告稱，平壤方面走上了與特朗普政府發生衝突的道路，中國還因韓國部署美國反導系統而對韓國企業展開報復。

Missile experts at the Middlebury Institute in California have suggested the North Koreans were simulating a nuclear attack on the US Marine Corps air base at Iwakuni. The facility is 50km from Hiroshima, site of the world’s first atomic bombing in the second world war.

加州蒙特雷國際學院(Middlebury Institute)的導彈專家們提出，朝方在模擬對位於巖國市(Iwakuni)的美國海軍陸戰隊航空基地發起核打擊。該基地距離廣島50公里——廣島在二戰中遭受原子彈轟炸，是世界上首個遭受核打擊的地方。

Answering questions in parliament, Tomomi Inada, defence minister, refused to rule out acquiring the capacity for a pre-emptive strike. “I do not rule out any method and we will consider various options, consistent of course with international law and the constitution of our country,” she said.

日本防衛大臣稻田朋美(Tomomi Inada)在國會回答問題時，拒絕排除獲得先發制人打擊能力的可能性。她說：“我不排除採取任何手段的可能性，我們將考慮多個選項，當然它們將符合國際法和我國憲法。”

Hideaki Kaneda, a retired vice-admiral now at the Okazaki Institute in Tokyo, said pre-emptive strikes against an imminent missile launch were permitted by international law and it was a “reasonable direction” for Japan to take.

目前在岡崎研究所(Okazaki Institute)任職的退役海軍中將金田秀昭(Hideaki Kaneda)表示，對即將發射的導彈進行先發制人的打擊是國際法允許的，這是日本可以選擇的“合理方向”。

Some politicians in Japan’s ruling LDP party have been pushing to acquire weapons capable of making a first strike for years. “But it’s notable that there hasn’t been such a strong public backlash against the idea this time,” Mr Kaneda said.

日本執政黨自民黨(LDP)的一些政治人士多年來一直推動日本獲得發動先發制人打擊所需的武器。金田秀昭表示：“但值得注意的是，這次公衆沒有對這個構想作出特別強烈的反彈。”

If Japan chooses to acquire such weapons, it has several options: Tokyo could buy Tomahawk cruise missiles, a missile-equipped drone or ground-to-air munitions for its manned F-35 aircraft.

如果日本選擇獲得此類武器，它有多個選項：日本政府可以購買“戰斧”巡航導彈、配備導彈的無人機，或者爲其有人駕駛的F-35戰機配備對地打擊武器。

Japan is also actively upgrading its existing anti-ballistic missile defences and considering whether to acquire the Terminal High Altitude Area Defence (Thaad) system that has caused the controversy between Beijing and Seoul.

日本還正在積極升級現有的反彈道導彈防禦系統，並考慮是否部署“美國末段高空區域防禦系統”(THAAD,中文簡稱：薩德)。正是薩德系統導致中國與韓國發生了爭執。

At present, Japan relies on Aegis destroyers at sea to intercept ballistic missiles mid-flight, and Patriot missiles on land to intercept them in the final moments of an attack. It is in the process of upgrading both.

就目前而言，日本依賴宙斯盾驅逐艦上的海基反導系統來攔截飛行中的彈道導彈，依賴陸上的“愛國者”導彈攔截已進入攻擊末段的彈道導彈。日本正在升級這兩套武器系統。

“What we have to consider is a saturated attack,” said Mr Kaneda. North Korea could attempt to overwhelm Japan’s defences by launching numerous missiles at the same target. “If they fall in a concentrated area then it’s harder to defend against,” he said.

金田秀昭表示：“我們不得不考慮飽和攻擊的可能性。”朝鮮可能試圖通過針對同一目標發射大量導彈來壓倒日本的防禦。他說：“如果它們落入人口密集區，那就更難防禦。”

Thaad would add a third layer to Japan’s defences, allowing it to intercept incoming missiles at greater range than the Patriot system. However, as with South Korea, the potential for the system’s radars to gather information on their defences could upset China and Russia.

薩德將爲日本的防禦體系提供第三層防護，讓它在比“愛國者”系統更遠的距離範圍攔截導彈。然而，和韓國一樣，薩德系統的雷達有可能收集到中國和俄羅斯的國防情報，引發這兩個國家不快。

Japan also perceives a threat from Chinese medium-range ballistic missiles, which could be used to attack its ships and airbases in the event of a conflict around the disputed Senkaku or Diaoyu islands.

日本還認爲中國的中程彈道導彈構成威脅。一旦中日圍繞有爭議的尖閣諸島(Senkaku)——中國稱爲釣魚島及其附屬島嶼——發生衝突，中國的中程彈道導彈可能被用於攻擊日方的軍艦和空軍基地。

Recent satellite imagery suggests China has carried out drills for such attacks, adding impetus to Japan’s quest for better anti-ballistic missile defences.

最近的衛星影像顯示，中國進行了此類攻擊的演練，這進一步刺激日本物色更好的反彈道導彈防禦系統。