美元是美債鬧劇的最大受害者

Dollar bulls are in retreat. For much of the past year, investors have been adamant that the next big trend in currency markets would be the dollar’s resurgence. But the US currency has emerged as the biggest victim of the drama in Washington over the debt ceiling.

美元多頭目前偃旗息鼓。在去年的大多數時間裏，投資者一直堅持相信，外匯市場的下一個主要趨勢將是美元的再度崛起。但美元現已成爲了華盛頓債務上限鬧劇的最大受害者。

Since last week’s eleventh hour deal to extend the debt ceiling – and avert a possible sovereign default – the dollar has fallen against almost all leading currencies and remains near an eight-month low against a basket of six main rivals.

自從美國兩黨上週在最後一刻達成延長債務上限的協議以來——此舉避免了發生債務違約的危險——美元相對於其他主要貨幣全面走軟，美元對六種主要貨幣組成的一籃子貨幣的匯率也在近8個月以來的低點附近徘徊。

Analysts polled by Bloomberg expect the dollar to strengthen in the long run, but the median forecast for 2015 has fallen 4 per cent since early June.

接受彭博(Bloomberg)調查的分析師預計，美元長期內將走強，但對2015年美元匯率的預測中位數相對於6月初的水平已經降低了4%。

The question is whether this recent weakness represents a tactical retreat by investors calculating how long the past month’s disruption will delay the Federal Reserve’s withdrawal of emergency monetary stimulus or, more worryingly, whether the dollar has suffered long-term damage to its status as a reserve currency.

問題的關鍵在於：美元近期的疲軟走勢是否代表了投資者的一種戰略撤退——因其正在估算上月的市場擾動將使美聯儲(Federal Reserve)推遲多久退出應急性貨幣刺激政策；還是出現了更令人擔憂的情況，即美元作爲一種儲備貨幣的地位從長期來看已經受到了損害。

The spectacle of dysfunctional government has clearly strengthened the desire of countries with big foreign exchange reserves to become less reliant on the dollar. As talks went to the wire, China and Japan, by far the biggest holders of US Treasuries, conveyed to Washington their concerns over the value of their investments.

美國政府停擺的局面無疑強化了持有鉅額外匯儲備的國家降低美元依賴的願望。在美國兩黨談判僵持不下之際，中國和日本已經向華盛頓方面表示了對於自身投資價值的擔憂。中日是當前持有美國國債規模最大的兩個國家。

Ksenia Yudaeva, deputy governor of Russia’s central bank, was more explicit, telling reporters last week: “We may consider some other currencies. We can’t reduce [the share of US Treasuries] rapidly but, in some time, we will be considering other instruments.”

俄羅斯央行副行長柯西尼婭•尤達耶娃(Ksenia Yudaeva)更加直言不諱。上週她對記者表示：“我們可能考慮其他貨幣。我們不能迅速降低美國國債在儲備資產中所佔比重，但隨着時間的推移，我們會考慮其他的投資工具。”

Many analysts dismiss such comments, saying they are rarely backed by action.

很多分析師對於這種表態不屑一顧，稱其很少能夠落實到實際行動上。

“The key agents here, central banks, move at glacial speeds and have few compelling alternatives,” write strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman, while JPMorgan notes that previous US fiscal fights “have always failed to generate a durable change in central bank purchases of US Treasuries”.

布朗兄弟哈里曼銀行(Brown Brothers Harriman)的策略師寫道：“作爲這一問題中的關鍵角色，中央銀行的行動速度如同冰川般緩慢，並且缺乏具有說服力的其他選擇。”而摩根大通(JPMorgan)則指出，歷史上美國兩黨圍繞財政問題展開的鬥爭“從未對各國央行購買美國國債的行爲帶來持久的改變”。

Even if changes are incremental, the dollar’s share of International reserves has undergone significant swings in the past. After 1999, with the euro’s introduction, its share in emerging markets’ FX reserves fell from about 75 per cent to 57 per cent, then rose slightly as the eurozone crisis dented confidence in the single currency.

即使這種變化是漸進的，美元在國際外匯儲備中所佔比重也曾經歷過顯著波動。1999年以後，隨着歐元的引入，美元在新興市場國家外匯儲備中的份額從約75%下降至57%；此後因歐元區經濟危機削弱了市場對於歐元的信心，美元佔比又略有回升。

During the last US budget stand-off in 2011, doubts over the euro’s future would have prevented any significant move out of dollars. This year, the stand-off coincided with a return of investor confidence in Europe’s periphery. It also follows a summer of intervention by central banks in emerging markets, which might have scope to decide whether to replenish their reserves with dollars or to seek alternatives.

在2011年的美國預算僵局期間，市場對歐元前景的顧慮阻礙了任何大規模拋售美元的行動。今年美國兩黨對峙恰逢投資者對歐洲外圍國家重拾信心之際。此外，今年夏季新興市場國家央行還曾入市干預，它們或許擁有決定是重新補充美元儲備還是尋找其他選擇的行動空間。

Moreover, China’s vast foreign exchange reserves hit a fresh high of $3.66tn in the third quarter. Valentin Marinov, strategist at Citi, notes that “in the past, whenever those reserves picked up, it added to the incentive to diversify”.

而且，中國的外匯儲備規模今年第三季度創下了歷史新高，達到了3.66萬億美元。花旗(Citi)策略師瓦倫丁•馬利諾夫(Valentin Marinov)指出，“過去每當一國的外匯儲備規模上升時，就會增強該國多元化投資的動力。”

International Monetary Fund data on the composition of central bank reserves show reserve managers were increasing their holdings of euros as confidence returned in the second quarter of 2012. Some analysts say that diversification by central bank reserve managers may partly explain the recent strength of sterling and the single currency.

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)有關各國央行儲備資產構成的數據顯示，在 2012年第二季度市場對歐元區經濟重拾信心時，儲備主管們就在提高歐元的持有量。部分分析師指出，各國央行外匯儲備主管的多元化投資行爲或能部分解釋近期英鎊以及歐元的強勁走勢。

Another clear trend in the IMF data is the recent popularity of the Australian and Canadian dollars as alternative reserve currencies, and some analysts speculate that unexpected resilience in the Aussie might reflect continued purchases.

IMF數據展現出的另一大顯著趨勢是，近期澳元以及加拿大元作爲儲備貨幣的新選擇大受追捧；一些分析師猜測，澳元出人意料的彈性或許正反映了持續買盤的影響。

Mr Marinov argues that a Fitch downgrade of the US sovereign rating might be a “tipping point” for further diversification, noting the Swiss National Bank had sold French bonds – cutting its euro holdings – after the country lost its triple A rating.

馬利諾夫認爲，若惠譽(Fitch)下調美國主權信用評級，則可能成爲外匯儲備進一步多元化的“引爆點”。他指出，瑞士央行(Swiss National Bank)就曾在法國失去AAA信用評級之後出售法國債券，進而減少所持歐元比重。

Such adjustments by central bankers could have a big effect on the value of some of the less liquid alternative reserve currencies – but they suggest a gradual erosion of the dollar’s role in capital markets, rather than any immediate threat to its dominance.

央行官員的這種調整或對某些流動性較弱的非美元儲備貨幣造成較大影響——但這種調整表明，美元在資本市場中的地位正在逐漸受到侵蝕，其市場主導地位不會立刻受到威脅。

More important to the dollar’s performance in the short term will be the flow of economic data that will determine the Federal Reserve’s decision on the timing of “tapering”. Analysts at Citi suggest that jobs data to be published today could be better than expected, making it already risky to short the dollar.

經濟數據對於美元短期內走勢具有更加重要的影響，因其決定着美聯儲將於何時“縮減”貨幣刺激政策。花旗分析師指出，本週公佈的就業數據可能好於市場預期，這已經使得做空美元變得有風險。

But currency investors, many of them out of pocket after the recent twists and turns in US monetary policy, are ready to seize on dollar weakness.

但外匯市場投資者已經做好了利用美元疲軟走勢的準備，他們中的很多人因近期美國貨幣政策曲折反覆而蒙受了損失。

“The emergence of a trend, any trend, is big news,” writes Chris Turner, strategist at ING, predicting that a dollar-funded carry trade would continue to the end of the year – whatever the dollar’s longer term prospects.

荷蘭國際集團(ING)策略師克里斯•特納(Chris Turner)指出：“外匯市場只要出現趨勢，不論是哪種趨勢，都是重大新聞。”他預計，不論美元的長期前景如何，融入美元的套利交易都將持續到今年年底。